here's what I posted in the console forum
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it seems like ATI's R420 (Radeon X800) Ruby tech demo pretty much rivals the 4+ year old Raven CGI that was used to hype the first Xbox
original pre-rendered 'Raven' CGI
pre-rendered Raven CGI movie
http://xboxmovies.ign.com/media/news/video/gdc2000/xboxdance.mov
(click the link this link brings you)
real-time version of 'Raven' demo running on Nvidia NV15 - GeForce 2 GTS
Ruby images: realtime ATI X800 version on the left, original pre-rendered CGI on the right
original pre-rendered Ruby CGI movie
http://www.rhinofx.tv/dc/dc_large.mov
real time Radeon X800 Ruby movie
http://www2.ati.com/misc/demos/ATI-X800-DoubleCross-Demo-v1.0.mov
now obviously, the real-time X800 Ruby demo is not *quite* as nice as the prerendered version. however, I think the realtime version is a very good approximation of the CGI. I think the realtime Ruby demo is far closer to the original Ruby CGI than the real-time Raven demo was to the original Raven CGI.
now then, Xbox 2 aka Xenon, N5 aka GCNext, and PS3, should be a significant step above the X800 8)
I think we can say that nextgen consoles will be capable of rivaling low-end (and I mean really low end) CGI graphics. not movie-grade CGI or even high-end videogame CGI but certainly low-end videogame CGI. of course it will ultimately be up to each developer to put in the resources needed to make games like this. but I do think it will happen with this next cycle of consoles. they will be the first step toward CGI graphics in games. the first of many steps that is.
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Also, think about this. I'll bet you that if the people that did the realtime ATI version of the Ruby demo were to "try again", with newer drivers, and pushing the X800 harder, that they could make another realtime version that is *somewhat* closer to the CGI. like how console development improves.
some things from the CGI could not be reproduced in realtime yet. but even so, the difference between the realtime and CGI versions is not massive, IMO.