Rift, Vive, and Virtual Reality

I just canceled my preorder.

Tonight on reddit oculus announced that they switched preorders from next day to ground , this is after the multiple months of delays , the constant insults by palmer , the bundles shipping first and people were allowed to return the pc and keep the rift then the announcement that rifts will be avalible at best buy , amazon and ms the end of this week but now the ground shipping.

This company is screwed up. I'm don't want to do business with them anymore

Wait, what? The Rift is going to be available on Amazon at the end of this week? Why the hell would anyone keep their pre-order then? I'll certainly cancel mine which isn't due to ship until July if that's the case. Or is that just US based Amazon?

Those are some screwed up priorities. I can't think of a single company that'd decline to honour preorders in favour of selling their stock to retail. Is that even legal?! Surely they can't sell their stock to retail as long as they have contracts to supply to paid customers already?

It certainly is screwed up but pre-orders don't pay anything (at least not in the UK) until the order ships. So I can cancel now at no charge, and will certainly be doing so as soon as I see the Rift on Amazon or similar.
 
Those are some screwed up priorities. I can't think of a single company that'd decline to honour preorders in favour of selling their stock to retail. Is that even legal?! Surely they can't sell their stock to retail as long as they have contracts to supply to paid customers already?

Pretty good chance that they had contracts set with retail chains long before pre-orders started. Also the orders with Oculus don't technically get processed until yours is ready to ship, so it's more akin to a queue than a pre-order.

It's certainly going to be fascinating to see the fallout of the launch. Everything from hardware sales, software sales, storefront/community activity, and the business/customer relationship is being impacted and for a great many people this is going to be their first impression made of Oculus. And on top of all that you still have serious head-scratchers like the unofficial Oculus sub-reddit being a more comprehensive, reliable and immediate source of business communication than their own official channels. If I weren't visiting the sub-reddit on a regular basis I would never have known about the manufacturing delays, the revised shipping schedules, the shipping service changes, or even that my Rift shipped at all for that matter. The only reason I knew it shipped and got a tracking number was because I happened to be signed up with UPS's online service and I got an e-mail from them (which was also recommended by the sub-reddit.)

Biggest favor Palmer did for me with the free Rift is allow me to mentally and emotionally sit this launch out. Makes me uncomfortable to think about how I would feel if this rollercoaster happened to have an actual $600 ticket price and was still ongoing like it is for most.
 
Wait, what? The Rift is going to be available on Amazon at the end of this week? Why the hell would anyone keep their pre-order then? I'll certainly cancel mine which isn't due to ship until July if that's the case. Or is that just US based Amazon?



It certainly is screwed up but pre-orders don't pay anything (at least not in the UK) until the order ships. So I can cancel now at no charge, and will certainly be doing so as soon as I see the Rift on Amazon or similar.


Good luck , only 48 best buys are getting them and they are getting 5 per store. They will be sold out before they even open thanks to the magic of online ship to store.

Amazon most likely will get under a thousand if they get similar to best buy. I would expect the same with MS stores.
 
Looking at 2nd hand prices (~1200+ USD), it looks like both HTC and Occulus misjudged demand. They probably could have both easily priced their units over 1000 USD and still sold every single unit made for months. Then reduce price once demand started to slow or manufacturing capacity increased.

Although I guess Occulus was screwed no matter what since they promised an affordable VR unit during their Kickstarter.

Regards,
SB
 
Looking at 2nd hand prices (~1200+ USD), it looks like both HTC and Occulus misjudged demand.
Uh no. They accepted more preorders than they could make. It has nothing to do with misjudging demand as they control exactly, country by country, how many preorder slots are available, and they provided an expected shipment date which kept slipping. They were both over-promising and under-delivering (literally).

These ebay prices have no volume, it's a short lived launch frenzy.
 
Uh no. They accepted more preorders than they could make. It has nothing to do with misjudging demand as they control exactly, country by country, how many preorder slots are available, and they provided an expected shipment date which kept slipping. They were both over-promising and under-delivering (literally).

These ebay prices have no volume, it's a short lived launch frenzy.

Do you think oculus should sell cheaper, current price or more expensive based on current situation? The current situation being if you order one know you might get delivery towards end of august.
 
Uh no. They accepted more preorders than they could make. It has nothing to do with misjudging demand as they control exactly, country by country, how many preorder slots are available, and they provided an expected shipment date which kept slipping. They were both over-promising and under-delivering (literally).

These ebay prices have no volume, it's a short lived launch frenzy.

Do you think oculus should sell cheaper, current price or more expensive based on current situation? The current situation being if you order one know you might get delivery towards end of august.
 
I don't know, I think there is nothing to be done with the current situation. It will resolve itself naturally as they resolve their production issues. It feels like the PS3 launch, where they were 1200 on ebay until xmas, and quickly dropped back to normal levels. Sony didn't want that situation, they didn't misjudge demand, and didn't change the price. It was an unexpected supply issue.

The problem with these products is that production lines are planned for a continuous number of units per week, but the first weeks they need 10 times more. The correct production size is still for the weekly volume to fill the year's demand, and they better accumulate a good chunk of units before launching. If they make a huge operation to fill up preorders, then it's a big waste of money because it will be 10 times too big for the normal volume they need after launch. The same goes for their parts suppliers, they don't just give them a millions chips whenever they ask, procurement is often a continuous supply contract, or it can have months of lead time.

It took minutes to exhaust the launch day preorders. Then it took months to get the estimate preorder from july to august, that is 4 weeks of production or less, the initial peak was a one shot, it's all of the early adopters, not representing what the continuous production volume should be.
 
With the DK1 launch they promised they learned and would have built up stock before shipping. The didn't do that with the Dk2 and promised again they would build up stock before taking preorders. Again they didn't do that. That's the problem. IF there was a component problem and they started building them last year when they claimed they would have found it weeks or months before launch not 2 days before
 
It's unknown as to just what Oculus's manufacturing timetables, volumes and stock quantities actually were. A lot of what we heard in tail end of 2015 seemed to suggest that they were going to accumulate stock in advance of pre-orders and have a stockpile for launch, but how that's possible considering everything we've seen since the first week of launch I don't know. Then we get nuggets like this:
"...at the time of pre-order launch there was no stock of consumer Rifts..." ( https://forums.oculus.com/community/discussion/comment/345820#Comment_345820 ). Seems like a futile exercise to try and understand what the chain of events were that got them to where they are now (and I'm not even sure where that is really.)
 
Uh no. They accepted more preorders than they could make. It has nothing to do with misjudging demand as they control exactly, country by country, how many preorder slots are available, and they provided an expected shipment date which kept slipping. They were both over-promising and under-delivering (literally).

These ebay prices have no volume, it's a short lived launch frenzy.

Those are Amazon prices. :) Granted, 2nd hand, so basically the same.

Will get a good picture of things once Amazon gets their shipment. If it sells out quickly and prices quickly jump back up to the ~1200 USD mark for Rift (HTC Vive is a bit higher averaging 1300 USD or more), it means that'll likely be the price point for a few months whenever official stock is sold out.

Nvidia used to have a similar situation with their enthusiast line launches. They finally said the hell with it and just officially started launching their enthusiast line (now called Titan) at ~1000 USD.

Regards,
SB
 
If it still sells out quickly, how do you differentiate a production issue versus a high demand?

SuperData have recently lowered their VR market growth prediction (again). The VR market is in trouble because oculus cannot make the damn things during the peak of early adopters hype, while they spent milions to be the absolute center of media attention. Despite a launch in march, SuperData analysts expect htc and oculus to sell only 1.1 million devices combined this year. So only hundreds of thousand each. I'm curious about what devs think of their own titles profitability potential. This is bad.

Ref:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-03-08-superdata-cuts-vr-forecast-by-30-percent
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-04-20-superdata-downgrades-vr-forecast-again
 
If it still sells out quickly, how do you differentiate a production issue versus a high demand?

SuperData have recently lowered their VR market growth prediction (again). The VR market is in trouble because oculus cannot make the damn things during the peak of early adopters hype, while they spent milions to be the absolute center of media attention. Despite a launch in march, SuperData analysts expect htc and oculus to sell only 1.1 million devices combined this year. So only hundreds of thousand each. I'm curious about what devs think of their own titles profitability potential. This is bad.

Ref:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-03-08-superdata-cuts-vr-forecast-by-30-percent
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-04-20-superdata-downgrades-vr-forecast-again

From the perspective of the whole industry, one or two forerunners unable to fulfill demand is not that bad. The question is whether the hype is just a short term thing (which is bad no matter what) or there's some real long term demand. If a long term demand is there, then there will be some other vendors to tap in this potentially lucrative market. This is actually not very different from smartphones.
 
we can't tell if there is real demand considering they still haven't hit 9 minutes yet in preorders. So its obviously a production issue. I had a March preorder date and I was sitting at 5/16 to 5/26 before I canceled. I ordered when preorders went live.
 
Iribe said prior to launch that if they were able to hit a million units sold by the end of its life cycle they would be very happy. Selling 1.1 million total between the Rift and Vive by the end of 2016 seems maybe even a bit optimistic given the way launch has turned out. I suspect dev reactions run the gamut given the differing degrees of investment, communication with Oculus, and their own personal expectations. I think the bigger surprise for devs is not the total number of units sold, but the distribution between Rift and Vive, and how that's going to impact the perceived value of dev time spent on SDKs, store front support, input devices, etc. That stuff is going to matter a lot by the time 2017 rolls around.

The big question lingering is going to be the average attach rates. I suspect that given the high cost of hardware, PC upgrades and need for specialized software with a captive audience that we're likely to see very different purchasing habits relative to regular PC gaming or console sales. Granted I'm not as huge of a gamer as I used to be, but I've easily spent more on VR software in the past year than I have on traditional PC gaming in the last 5 years. Maybe even 10 years.
 
I doubt that vr would be a fad that goes away. Both rift and vive are really good and provide something that is impossible to reproduce on regular displays. It would be pretty difficult not to want either one of those after trying them out. I can only imagine better things as technology keeps improving and getting cheaper.

I haven't tried psvr but I have a feeling based on units sold sony will be the king for at least the 1st generation of consumer devices. I'm very likely going to get psvr. I'm assuming sony will have some nifty experiences and the heavy hitting games like gran turismo in vr.
 
If it still sells out quickly, how do you differentiate a production issue versus a high demand?

SuperData have recently lowered their VR market growth prediction (again). The VR market is in trouble because oculus cannot make the damn things during the peak of early adopters hype, while they spent milions to be the absolute center of media attention. Despite a launch in march, SuperData analysts expect htc and oculus to sell only 1.1 million devices combined this year. So only hundreds of thousand each. I'm curious about what devs think of their own titles profitability potential. This is bad.

Ref:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-03-08-superdata-cuts-vr-forecast-by-30-percent
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-04-20-superdata-downgrades-vr-forecast-again

I myself have been saying that VR isn't going to take off like many are predicting so this is not news to me, and rather more of what I expected to happen after the initial wave of interest from those that have been following VR most closely. I hope it does relatively better than the rather anemic 3D support that television and media has gotten after the first couple years, however.

But going back to my previous point. Nvidia has again advanced their strategy with regards to limited launch availability of a highly anticipated product. Their new 1080 and 1070 feature "founders" packages. In order to get one of their new video cards at launch you'll have to order the Founders edition which has a 100 USD and 70 USD price premium respectively. Availability of non-Founders cards should come in the following weeks.

That allows them to take advantage of launch hype combined with limited units while still communicating to consumers what the long term MSRP will be (although even that MSRP isn't really MSRP, it's just the lowest price Nvidia will allow their partners to sell the 1080/1070 for, the partners are allowed to price it higher if they wish).

I'm sure Occulus and HTC wish they would have thought of that.

Regards,
SB
 
I don't think either Oculus or HTC/Valve are particularly interested in exploiting the fervor of the market to put a squeeze on their prospective customers. DK1 and DK2 were priced hundreds below what they could have been, HTC/Valve gave thousands of devkits out for free, Oculus gave thousands for free to kickstarter backers, free next-day worldwide shipping for tens of thousands of orders, etc. Each of those decisions cost millions in lost potential earnings or additional expenditures, but they did it because the entire point of pushing hardware to an unprofitably nascent industry is the hope that it will either build into something profitable or allow them to more gracefully pivot to a parallel industry if the opportunity arises.
 
That is true. You do need to get the industry off the ground. And both are funded by large corporations (Facebook and Valve/HTC) without a need to have an immediate return on investment. Well except HTC, but I'm sure Valve are helping with the R&D costs significantly so the risk is reduced for HTC.

Regards,
SB
 
Back
Top