Remote game services (OnLive, Gaikai, etc.)

[assen]

I was talking with a friend and he mentioned that all of their talk about "perception science" mumbo jumbo may mean that they were planning on using the Z-buffer to adjust coding in blocks, so that stuff further away would get lossier coding.

That sounded like a good idea that's semi workable (you don't always want distant stuff to be lossy), I'm suprised this 'revolutionary' compression they've supposedly created is just a more mundane parallelized codec.

The problem is "distant" is not a good predictor for "unimportant"; your enemies in a FPS, if you're playing the sniper, are much more important than the rock you are hiding behind.

Also, it requires significant cooperation with the game to access the depth buffer; OnLive claim games will be easily "ported" to their platform. Someone like NVIDIA can access the depth buffer to make stereo 3D, because they control the driver - and it still doesn't work perfectly for every game. Depth buffers aren't what they used to be in the 3dfx days, with custom formats, many passes, deferred rendering etc. ;-)

And do you trust the OnLive guys to make a custom driver that actually works?

 

[grandmaster]

Not only that but it needs to be able to be decoded by modest hardware client-side. Even a netbook equipped with a decent decoder like CoreAVC can decode 720p30 in real-time.

 

[assen]

Not only that but it needs to be able to be decoded by modest hardware client-side. Even a netbook equipped with a decent decoder like CoreAVC can decode 720p30 in real-time.

(In case that was a reply to my reply to DemoCoder ;-) )
I assume here that any Z-buffer/importance-based tricks are only used to guide the bit allocation part of the coder, which will then still produce a normal, compliant bitstream, decodable anywhere.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Is this a subscription service? I thought you still had to buy or rent the games you wanted to play?

 

[assen]

Is this a subscription service? I thought you still had to buy or rent the games you wanted to play?

That's the beauty of it - it allows for all kinds of business models - ownership, rent, monthly all-you-can eat in tiers, per game subscription, item purchases, and probably many others that don't exist yet.

 

[patsu]

Not really. What happens if everyone buys just 1 copy and play forever ? They will need to put it some thoughts for the right business model. But yes, it may be more flexible than packaged games.

 

[assen]

Not really. What happens if everyone buys just 1 copy and play forever ? They will need to put it some thoughts for the right business model. But yes, it may be more flexible than packaged games.

Yeah, you're right, that would be a problem. Maybe if the base subscription cost is high enough, they can live with it.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I still don't really get the business opportunity in this...

PC games are almost entirely extinct already, and those that remain and have a market are always made sure to run pretty well on almost every computer out there. OnLive in itself won't have the leverage to stop this trend, because it can't support the dev costs of high end PC games without many millions of subscribers. But without the high end content, what would sell the service?

Using console games is probably not going to happen because the hardware vendors aren't interested in just the game segment, they also want you to subscribe to their services, and buy DLC and accessories and stuff from them.

Not to mention the mediocre image quality. Sure, maybe you don't have to look as good as an HD console, but if they can't provide a serious image quality advantage, then why not get a PS2 and a lot of cheap and good games? And anything able to decode an HD stream at 60fps can probably run that same game at reasonable detail levels too, ain't that right? Oh, and people who can't afford to buy a highend PC and games aren't really going to subscribe to an expensive service - they're more likely to cough up the money for a cheap PC and pirate the games instead.

And impressive it may look, but just how practical it is to play any PC game through an iPhone?

There are just far too many technical issues that narrow their window of opportunity seriously. And I really don't buy into the concept of cloud computing in general anyway, so perhaps it's me who's too biased... but this just doesn't sound that reasonable to me.

 

[assen]

Laa-Yosh, as usually, I agree almost fully with you, down to the attitude towards "cloud computing"

But the major driving force towards the adoption of something like OnLive somewhere in the future will be the one you missed: the big content providers, aka the big publishers. They will experience several positive effects: huge unified market with only one hardware platform; total control over how much you consume their product (no piracy, second-hand games, lending a copy to a friend, playing FIFA 2008 in 2010 etc.); I believe also that having everybody in the same network, on the same platform, via nearly the same prices, will lead to massive concentration of gamers towards the top titles - something that EA/Activision etc will benefit most from.

 

[obonicus]

That's essentially been my problem all along. It just doesn't seem like there'd be a huge overlap between people who'd pay for a premium games service subscription and those who wouldn't mind the severe degradation in experience. Maybe if they can make it cheaper than owning a console and the games, but if you're not a day-1 buyer games are already pretty cheap.

 

[patsu]

The answer may be blur at this point. Besides economics, they can also try to achieve a better overall experience (e.g., Universal spectating and seamless online entertainment experience). They may explore specific segments too (e.g., Gaming from hotels all over the world, access to your own media/game library remotely, exclusive pr0n gaming).

Need to see it in person. If they offer this to all Mac users, and can ensure a quality experience, then it may be fruitful as well (I don't know).

In general, startups are inherently high risk because of uncertainties. It depends whether they can uncover anything valuable along the way and tweak their plans accordingly. Tight execution is critical. They only have 1-2 times to change their game before the whole thing becomes sour.

EDIT:
Regarding cloud computing, it's only a facilitator. It should not be the focus of the user benefits/experiences (other than "pervasive/anywhere/universal" access, or may be guaranteed content storage with zero failure). The hidden key there may be a more palatable end user DRM. ^_^

 

[patsu]

The hidden key there may be a more palatable end user DRM. ^_^

Digitalbits has a small article on Disney's KeyChest system. This is what I'm talking about regarding Cloud and DRM:
http://www.digitalbits.com/#mytwocents

Now, among the issues currently hindering the growth of the digital download market are the existence of multiple incompatible media formats, digital piracy and the danger that the content you purchase today will become inaccessible later. What KeyChest is designed to do is to enable consumers to access their digital movie and TV content easily across multiple platforms and providers, both now and over time. KeyChest is NOT DRM, not a new format in itself, nor is it a media server or a retailer. According to Disney, it's also not meant to be a competitor to the existing Digital Entertainment Content Ecosystem (DECE) proposal by Warner, Universal, Sony, Paramount and Fox. Rather, KeyChest is designed to work with DECE and can be applied to any media format, whether physical or streaming.

What KeyChest is, essentially, is an online rights repository 'in the cloud' that enables easier and wider access to the digital content you (as a consumer) have purchased, wherever you are and on whatever device you wish to view it on. An example of the way it would work for consumers is this: Let's say you purchase a movie or TV program from a KeyChest participating provider - it could be a movie on a DVD, Blu-ray or Digital File disc from a major studio, it could be an iTunes or Amazon download (if they chose to participate), it could be a streaming program from another online service or even a digital movie file on a jump drive. When you make the initial purchase (or activate the Digital File with the code in the packaging), the software or provider would communicate with the KeyChest service over the Net. KeyChest would assign you a unique user number, and then register that you are authorized to access that particular piece of content - the movie or TV program. That authorization is communicated back to the provider or software, and you'd be able to start watching the content immediately (say on a PC, laptop, phone, set top box, etc). All this happens near instantaneously, so you don't have to wait. Your experience is simply purchase, active and watch - you never deal with KeyChest itself at all.

It seems similar to the Marlin open DRM system Sony is working on. Not sure whether KeyChest is more advanced or further along.

I believe Microsoft licensed the InterTrust technologies in the 90s. So they may also have something similar with their rumored tablet computer launch in CES 2010. We shall see.

 

[obonicus]

How strange. I'd expect that by putting a disc in my player/buying a video off the 'net I'd be able to start watching content immediately. How wrong I've been.

 

[Squilliam]

I don't see a console manufacturer doing that after they've already sold the consumer $300 worth of hardware. Onlive is going for a pretty unique niche that has broadband and decent disposable income to spend on a game subscription service but that doesn't want to deal with the hardware and is probably willing to take a performance hit for that. It'll probably be at least a few years after Onlive is successful for competitors to spring up and it'll probably have a good base by then.

Lets just take Microsoft as a potential competitor in the U.S. Market.

Microsoft has an established install base of 21M units and growing.
Microsoft has an established content delivery network with games as well as movies and music available.
Microsoft has 10M+ people already with subcriptions to their Live service.
Microsoft has already got good relations with developers/publishers and their own developers.
Microsoft has the money and software development expertise for the back end.
Microsoft has arguably already got hardware which is both cheap and profitable.


Even if they beat them to the punch, Microsoft has the luxury of a couple of years to develop their own service whilst Onlive is still setting themselves up. They already have the revenue from other sources to pay for the cost of setting up more servers, Onlive is starting from zero here.

 

[patsu]

How strange. I'd expect that by putting a disc in my player/buying a video off the 'net I'd be able to start watching content immediately. How wrong I've been.

They are talking about different things.

If it's just local Blu-ray playback, the standard AACS system will be used.

What the KeyChest and other open DRM system try to achieve is if you buy a Blu-ray movie (or PSN movie) and want to watch it on a PSP, iPhone and a PC.

In all of these cases, they are saying the process should be transparent to you. However the user may see an additional UI to authorize the viewing (e.g., watching from a friend's home player).

Cloud computing is more than a network layer invention.

 

[patsu]

Something different but related:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/playjam-teams-with-sony-samsung-and-apple-for-tv-games-service

The world's largest TV gaming network PlayJam has secured distribution deals for the launch of its new connected games service with Sony, Samsung and Apple, it announced today.

Its upcoming service will initially be made available through Sony Bravia HDTVs, Apple's iPhone, UPC, Dish India and Freeview, with the network set to grow rapidly over the next few years.

 

[Acert93]

Laa-Yosh, as usually, I agree almost fully with you, down to the attitude towards "cloud computing"

But the major driving force towards the adoption of something like OnLive somewhere in the future will be the one you missed: the big content providers, aka the big publishers. They will experience several positive effects: huge unified market with only one hardware platform; total control over how much you consume their product (no piracy, second-hand games, lending a copy to a friend, playing FIFA 2008 in 2010 etc.); I believe also that having everybody in the same network, on the same platform, via nearly the same prices, will lead to massive concentration of gamers towards the top titles - something that EA/Activision etc will benefit most from.

And that is my concern: e.g. EA just dumped online support for Madden 2009 (16 month old game with a lot of people still using it). Just reading Activision's CEO's perspective on consumers makes my skin crawl. Not to mention when a service / company dies your investment can go with it (a major issue with DD).

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And importantly for OnLive, it's a startup, so the likelihood of it dying quickly after launch and taking all your investment with it is far higher than, say, MS rolling out a similar service on Live!. $200 of OnLive! subscription later, it may be dead, and you'll be wishing you'd saved that money to upgrade your PC and own games instead.

 

[nintenho]

you know if you had 200 watts of power draw going for one year, it would cost more than an XBL subscription. they are leasing the servers but I still don't really see how they can make it cheap/efficient enough to be profitable just on vanilla digital distribution alone unless it has some pretty insane subscription costs.

 

[patsu]

They are talking about different things.

If it's just local Blu-ray playback, the standard AACS system will be used.

What the KeyChest and other open DRM system try to achieve is if you buy a Blu-ray movie (or PSN movie) and want to watch it on a PSP, iPhone and a PC.

In all of these cases, they are saying the process should be transparent to you. However the user may see an additional UI to authorize the viewing (e.g., watching from a friend's home player).

Cloud computing is more than a network layer invention.

Disney demoed KeyChest just before CES 2010:
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6713753.html?industryid=47275

KeyChest is Disney’s answer to helping consumers access digital content across a wide range of devices, such as PCs, set-tops and mobile phones, regardless of where the material was purchased or in which file format. The core idea is that people are assigned digital ownership rights when buying a movie/TV title, and these rights can be used to unlock the title’s playback whenever and wherever.

May be for video tech forum, but DRM should impact all digital content, including games.