Obviously we only get upset about a delay if we care about buying it.
Typically, it's the tech-freaks that want a PS3 early. The majority won't follow suit until Christmas 2007. However, I'm still very interested in how well the 360 will do in Europe over Christmas. There's a chance that this time (unlike last time) shop-owners will start making an effort to actually sell them. So far, it almost seems as shopkeepers really don't care. Which might be true - they make their profits on gamesales, and right now PS2 and DS probably are more interesting to them. And while the 360 games do well in the UK, the number of titles are much smaller, so individual titles are more likely to stand out (standout titles have no real competition, budget or otherwise).
What you will see happen is that shopowners will try to clear out the old stuff first (old PS2 and Xbox stock). GameCube and Xbox games are in fact disappearing from the shops, and while both PS2 and Xbox games are often in budget bins, the majority of the shelf-space is still devoted to PS2 games in most stores.
I think the 360 has the opportunity to double its European installbase over the holiday season, but that would still only put it at about 3 million and I don't know if that will be enough. Worst case for 360, but still very much possible, is that the PS3 overtakes them by 31 December 2007. Once that happens, they'll have lost Europe.
For the U.S. I'm much more optimistic for the 360, where I think they can hold onto the lead much longer, and if they play their cards right, then the price difference might even win the market. However, I'm worried that their commitment to windows gaming may actually hurt the 360, with PCs faster than ever before overtaking the 360 in terms of graphics and gameplay.
Japan, on the other hand, despite developers appreciating the system (especially in terms of excellent support, tools, and reliable release dates
), the market really isn't interested enough. At best, the 360 may lay a foundation for a moderately successful 720 - but they will have to keep making a big investment over a long period to reach that goal.
Once the Wii and PS3 are out, those will likely take care of more than 90% of the market.