PS3 Price drop and 40GB SKU confirmed *

[Crossbar]

Only 2 USB ports seems to imply a new form factor.

Just going from 4 to 2 ports using the same housing doesnt seem to make much sense. The cost saved would be so insignificant.

A new form factor this early in the life cycle seems unlikely to me, the original 20 GB unit without the HDMI port had the same formfactor as the 60 GB, in a similar way this will just be a cheaper version with some features removed. If you buy a PS3 with just 2 USB ports you know you will have to get a hub the day you want to attach more than two USB units at the same time. For the majority of users 2 USB ports will be just fine.

There is also no point in trying to match the features and prices of the rumored units to the BOM as some people try to do. The value will be in the eyes of the buyer. The cheaper unit will likely be more subsidized than the more expensive unit, but the buyer who has decided to buy a PS3 really doesn´t care about that, if he/she wants 4 USB ports, larger HDD and has the money, he/she will buy the more expensive unit. Perceived value bla bla....

@-tkf-, I think you will already find all ports on the main board.
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2006/1111/ps3_32.jpg

 

[-tkf-]

A new form factor this early in the life cycle seems unlikely to me, the original 20 GB unit without the HDMI port had the same formfactor as the 60 GB, in a similar way this will just be a cheaper version with some features removed. If you buy a PS3 with just 2 USB ports you know you will have to get a hub the day you want to attach more than two USB units at the same time. For the majority of users 2 USB ports will be just fine.

There is also no point in trying to match the features and prices of the rumored units to the BOM as some people try to do. The value will be in the eyes of the buyer. The cheaper unit will likely be more subsidized than the more expensive unit, but the buyer who has decided to buy a PS3 really doesn´t care about that, if he/she wants 4 USB ports, larger HDD and has the money, he/she will buy the more expensive unit. Perceived value bla bla....

@-tkf-, I think you will already find all ports on the main board.
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2006/1111/ps3_32.jpg

Man i looked everywhere and they were right there.. sniff...

I just wanted them to be on the left side, i guess that is why i missed them

 

[Nesh]

Maybe, I should flesh out my comment a little more because I'm feeling a little miscommunication is going on.

My initial response came from a post claiming a $400 PS3 should sell as well as a $400 360 during the holiday season with the claim that the 360 had a weaker library going in yet sold 1.5 mil.

I disagreed based on my belief that consumers' outlook going into 06 for the 360's library was more favorable than consumers' going into 07 for the PS3's library. My comments was based relative to time. My comments aren't to be construed to say that if you play the games in the 360's library for 06 you will find more quality games than the PS3's library for 07.

The 2005-2006 library for the 360 sold better and even if you standardized with a per hardware unit measurement that remains true. While sales aren't a true measure of quality they affects consumers' general perceptions (this comment excludes all the movie based trash with hefty marketing budgets).

The 2005-2006 library for the 360 reviewed better (close to 2X the number of 360 games scored 80% of better for gameranking and metacritic) and when ports of some of those games were released for the Ps3 in 2007, generally they were still reviewed favorably even with limited additions.

You right the 360 had no competition, but that plays into the 360's hand. Going into and during the 06 holiday season there were no PS3/Wii library outside of Resistance and Mario Sports while the PS3's offerings is facing Halo 3, Bioshock Mass Effect, Metroid and just slew of other games from the other two manufacturers, whose libraries extend 1 and 2 years back.

Consumers don't judge game libraries in a vacuum as the market conditions at the time influence their perception. The 360 has all the general advantages going into 06 versus the PS3 going into 07.

Let me get this straight. Are you saying that the 360 is doing better than the PS3 (or that the PS3 wont perform as well as the 360 did in 2006) because it had a year head start or because PS3's 07 library isn't as good as 360's 06 library?

 

[TheChefO]

Let me get this straight. Are you saying that the 360 is doing better than the PS3 (or that the PS3 wont perform as well as the 360 did in 2006) because it had a year head start or because PS3's 07 library isn't as good as 360's 06 library?

I think he's saying the software library, relative to the competition and expectations of the respective machines, favors xb360 to have sold better in '06 vs ps3 in '07, even if their prices were matched.

I agree.

If one has no console at all at this point and is entertaining all offers, xb360 is generally a bit more compelling at this point. Of course, we all have different opinions on what we like or don't like so some will (and are) chose ps3 based on wanting to play Lair or HS over MS offerings. Generally speaking though, I expect more to chose xb360 based on the quality and diversity of the lineup this year.

Factor in price and it tips the scales a bit more.

None of these factors existed last year. If you wanted HD games, there was one option, and the entry fee was $300-400. This year if you want HD games there are ... well a lot of option with all the sku's but you get the picture.

Also, I'm sure a factor in this is, those that had just bought an HDTV and wanted new HD games were more willing to buy an xb360 at $400. (Early adopters etc.)

Those that waited to get HD now are probably a bit more value oriented.

**edit** seems you covered most of this already.

 

[Nesh]

I think he's saying the software library, relative to the competition and expectations of the respective machines, favors xb360 to have sold better in '06 vs ps3 in '07, even if their prices were matched.

I agree.

If one has no console at all at this point and is entertaining all offers, xb360 is generally a bit more compelling at this point. Of course, we all have different opinions on what we like or don't like so some will (and are) chose ps3 based on wanting to play Lair or HS over MS offerings. Generally speaking though, I expect more to chose xb360 based on the quality and diversity of the lineup this year.

Factor in price and it tips the scales a bit more.

None of these factors existed last year. If you wanted HD games, there was one option, and the entry fee was $300-400. This year if you want HD games there are ... well a lot of option with all the sku's but you get the picture.

Also, I'm sure a factor in this is, those that had just bought an HDTV and wanted new HD games were more willing to buy an xb360 at $400. (Early adopters etc.)

Those that waited to get HD now are probably a bit more value oriented.

It is already explained why 360 could do better in 06 than what PS3 can do in 07 even if it sells at the same price 360 was sold in 06. I didn't disagree that it could hard for the PS3 to perform as well today as how the 360 performed in 06.

His arguments though are mixed and bring a few irrelevant points such as 360's 06 quality line up. PS3 had a slow start, price left people waiting, accumulated library is smaller than the 360, 360 comes with better retail offers, PS3 expectations have been lowered due lack of word from outh to mouth, due to rumors of losing exclusives, due to comparisons with a more mature competitor and another one which sells like hotcakes, due to lack of interest on information regarding upcoming PS3 titles. 360's 06 vs PS3's 07 library are irrelevant. People tend to compare what is available to them today and choose what they can see today. PS3 didnt start well and people lost a huge portion of their interest. They shift it towards something else which already has more games and is in bigger quantities in people's homes. It is a more secure investment. Even if PS3's upcoming 2007 games are AAA or equal to the best the 360 offers they might still not do as well as they should have been,

It is actually 360 as a product today vs PS3 as a product today. And that involves popularity, establishment etc as well.

 

[dobwal]

It is already explained why 360 could do better in 06 than what PS3 can do in 07 even if it sells at the same price 360 was sold in 06. I didn't disagree that it could hard for the PS3 to perform as well today as how the 360 performed in 06.

His arguments though are mixed and bring a few irrelevant points such as 360's 06 quality line up. PS3 had a slow start, price left people waiting, accumulated library is smaller than the 360, 360 comes with better retail offers, PS3 expectations have been lowered due lack of word from outh to mouth, due to rumors of losing exclusives, due to comparisons with a more mature competitor and another one which sells like hotcakes, due to lack of interest on information regarding upcoming PS3 titles. 360's 06 vs PS3's 07 library are irrelevant. People tend to compare what is available to them today and choose what they can see today. PS3 didnt start well and people lost a huge portion of their interest. They shift it towards something else which already has more games and is in bigger quantities in people's homes. It is a more secure investment. Even if PS3's upcoming 2007 games are AAA or equal to the best the 360 offers they might still not do as well as they should have been,

It is actually 360 as a product today vs PS3 as a product today. And that involves popularity, establishment etc as well.

Nobody is talking about 360's 06 vs PS3's 07 library heads up. We talking about about consumers' perception of those respective libraries during 06 and 07.

If you were a prospective customer trying to decide which console to buy in 06' and went to gameranking and metacritic to see how the 360 had fared so far you would see 30-40 games scoring 80 and up versus none for the PS3 and Wii. If you were a customer in 07 you would see 15-20 PS3 games scoring 80 and up versus Im not sure how many for the Wii but close to 60 or 70 for the 360.

If you were an avid game website goer going into 06 you would know about COD2, GRAW, Oblivion, FN3, Condemned, PD 0 and Kameo with Gears of War, SCA and R6 Vegas on the horizon versus Wii Sports, Resistance on the other side of the fence.

If you were an avid game website goer going into 07 you would know about Resistance, Motorstorm, HS, Lair and RC, UT3, Uncharted and Haze on the horizon versus all those before mentioned 06 360 games plus Halo3, Bioshock, Lost Planet, Crackdown, Forza 2, Mass Effect, Wii 06 offerings and M3 on the other side of the fence.

360's 06 vs PS3's 07 library are irrelevant. People tend to compare what is available to them today and choose what they can see today.

.

That what I comparing, consumers' perception of the 360 library inclusive of market conditions when holiday 06 was "today" or just down the road versus the consumers perception of the PS3 inclusive of market condition today going into this holiday season.

The argument was 06 holiday sales for the 360 at $400 versus hypothetical PS3 holiday sales for 07 at $400 with the disclaimer that the 360 had a weaker library at the time.

When thats the argument then 06 versus 07 library comparsion becomes relevant, not just in a heads up manner but in a relative to time debate.

Further, while its relatively easy to reason that sales aren't a good measure of true quality. However, perceived quality is greatly affected by sales numbers that why "platinum hits" is used by MS to promote additional sales.

 

[TheChefO]

It is actually 360 as a product today vs PS3 as a product today. And that involves popularity, establishment etc as well.

Good post - well said.

 

[djskribbles]

sorry if this has been posted, but someone posted this over at AVSForum. i think theres a pretty good chance we will see a 40GB PS3. the question is when.

 

[22psi]

sorry if this has been posted, but someone posted this over at AVSForum. i think theres a pretty good chance we will see a 40GB PS3. the question is when.

Just two less USB ports, less HDD space but with DS3? If it retains the wireless, I am buying.

 

[-tkf-]

sorry if this has been posted, but someone posted this over at AVSForum. i think theres a pretty good chance we will see a 40GB PS3. the question is when.

The leaked FCC document that i mentioned, i was unsure of the board rules on such stuff so i didn´t link

 

[Crossbar]

The leaked FCC document that i mentioned, i was unsure of the board rules on such stuff so i didn´t link

Not really leaked, I downloaded a bunch of those pdf-files myself from FCC last night, no news really, they are probably just the same files Titanio read some week ago.

Kind of interesting that the receipt date for the testing sample was June18. This have been planned for a VERY long time.

Edit: I just noted from that picture that the Gain values of all the built-in antennas have been significantly improved over the 60 GB model, perhaps it is the same as the 80 GB model, the picture didn´t tell.

 

[Nesh]

Nobody is talking about 360's 06 vs PS3's 07 library heads up. We talking about about consumers' perception of those respective libraries during 06 and 07.

If you were a prospective customer trying to decide which console to buy in 06' and went to gameranking and metacritic to see how the 360 had fared so far you would see 30-40 games scoring 80 and up versus none for the PS3 and Wii. If you were a customer in 07 you would see 15-20 PS3 games scoring 80 and up versus Im not sure how many for the Wii but close to 60 or 70 for the 360.

If you were an avid game website goer going into 06 you would know about COD2, GRAW, Oblivion, FN3, Condemned, PD 0 and Kameo with Gears of War, SCA and R6 Vegas on the horizon versus Wii Sports, Resistance on the other side of the fence.

If you were an avid game website goer going into 07 you would know about Resistance, Motorstorm, HS, Lair and RC, UT3, Uncharted and Haze on the horizon versus all those before mentioned 06 360 games plus Halo3, Bioshock, Lost Planet, Crackdown, Forza 2, Mass Effect, Wii 06 offerings and M3 on the other side of the fence.

.

That what I comparing, consumers' perception of the 360 library inclusive of market conditions when holiday 06 was "today" or just down the road versus the consumers perception of the PS3 inclusive of market condition today going into this holiday season.

The argument was 06 holiday sales for the 360 at $400 versus hypothetical PS3 holiday sales for 07 at $400 with the disclaimer that the 360 had a weaker library at the time.

When thats the argument then 06 versus 07 library comparsion becomes relevant, not just in a heads up manner but in a relative to time debate.

Further, while its relatively easy to reason that sales aren't a good measure of true quality. However, perceived quality is greatly affected by sales numbers that why "platinum hits" is used by MS to promote additional sales.

Well it is obvious that perception is subjective, misses often information or it is often false.

I agree with everything you said except from your reference to perception of library. You refer to it as if people have complete information for both libraries and people create a perception based on available information for these libraries. There are other factors that make some consoles more preferable to people than others

But the perception on how people view PS3's library vs 360's is a very small part of the picture. The PS3 could have sold much more with the same games if it was priced lower from the beginning, and even sell a lot more today with a possible price drop and as a result sell much more software, make its games known and well received. This can work as a continuous circle of hardware selling software and vice versa building a positive impression in people's minds.

It is not how people see PS3's library in quality vs 360's. They simply dont see it. There are more chances they will see a crappy, mediocre game on a Wii than an AAA title on the PS3. And PS3 is getting a load of such titles. They just cant make their selves very known and hype theirselves. How can you make games known and well received if people dont buy your console? And how can you convince people that your console is great if people know it didnt sell as well?

PS3 didnt need to have a ton of games that are 3 times better than what 360 was offering in 2006 to build itself in people's minds. It pulled itself away for other reasons-wrong marketing decisions and other mistakes, making it's offerings simply ignored. People can immediately notice the price though and that the package didnt have a free game with it.

Unlike 360. With Gears. Or PGR4. Cheaper.

From the whole list of games you mentioned the majority of games were only decent, easily forgettable, not the games that made 360 perceived as the console with the better first year library. Only a handful played their role in forming that perception.

These games only helped the 360 grow while there was no PS3 and no Wii. Perception of the quality of library is incomplete because PS3 isnt there. It is affected by what I ve said earlier. Built userbase, establishment, built popularity, slow start of the competitor and slow movement after it launched due to price. People view what it is the easiest to view. PS3 alienated itself.

I am an serious gamer, check websites and the PS3'S 2007 games surpasses in many ways 360's offerings in 2006 but doesnt surpass 360's total offerings in 2007. PS3's current and future games relatively to 360's current and future games is equally as powerful and promising.

But serious gamers consist of only a small portion. They (the casuals) get less information and prefer direct information.

They react more to prices, free games, and popularity. Which the PS3 didnt do well at initially making itself ignored in general

edit: edited a few parts to make my self clearer

 

[Nesh]

Btw PS3's released 2007 library is still incomplete. When you talk about 360's 2006 library you include October, November and December 2006 released titles

 

[scooby_dooby]

Wow, the offhand statement that PS3's 07 library being better than 360's 06 has really taken on a life of it's own.

For the record: I was only stating that quantatively, the PS3 does have a better lineup than the 360 had in 06, that can't be denied.

Largely that's a meaningless statement, it doesn't matter how the two libraries compare, 06 is ancient history.

The only significance I feel that has, and the reason I mentioned it, was to illustrate that the PS3's library is stronger than people give it credit for. In other words, the PS3 lineup is not that bad, people are exagerating when they say it doesn't have a lineup which can move units.

So, my argument was that PS3's game library is strong enough, that in conjunction with a price drop, and Sony's strong userbase, they could move many units this spring. Nothing more. And was mainly directed at the people arguing a pricedrop would be innefective due to the fact PS3 has 'no games'.

 

[TheChefO]

And was mainly directed at the people arguing a pricedrop would be innefective due to the fact PS3 has 'no games'.

I think their problem isn't the lack of good quality games, I think it's the lack of a single game that stands out as a system seller like MS had last year with Gears.

Gears was (and still is to some extent) the top notch game visually and was well put together. It also appealed to the demographic that would have $400 to spend on a console.

If Sony had KZ2 available this year, they could have great success moving units, even at their current price.

They're just missing that standout title that will move units at high prices.

 

[Nesh]

Largely that's a meaningless statement, it doesn't matter how the two libraries compared.


The only significance I feel that has, and the reason I mentioned it, was to illustrate that the PS3's library is stronger than people give it credit for. In other words, the PS3 lineup is not that bad, people are exagerating when they say it doesn't have a lineup which can move units.

Personally I am not discussing how much better the PS3 library is to the 360's in 06. I am pointing towards that part of your post.

How well the PS3 was, is doing and how it will do with a price drop is irrelevant to how it's library is perceived by people compared to 360's. There is a total of other factors that play their part. If the PS3 doesnt move the expected number of units in case of a price drop it is not because of it's library being bad or not well perceived. It is because it is neglected in favor of better performing competitors

To complete the picture it will all depend on how many units it will move initially to improve it's image, how that image will make other people look into it's library improving hardware sales farther vs the low image it has created because of low sales and better competition performance in the market

 

[scooby_dooby]

I think their problem isn't the lack of good quality games, I think it's the lack of a single game that stands out as a system seller like MS had last year with Gears.

Gears was (and still is to some extent) the top notch game visually and was well put together. It also appealed to the demographic that would have $400 to spend on a console.

If Sony had KZ2 available this year, they could have great success moving units, even at their current price.

They're just missing that standout title that will move units at high prices.

First of all, I don't believe there is ANY title which will move a high number of units at $500-600.

And, I really question the need of such a title, especially for Sony. Sony fans know what franchises will be coming, they know what they can expect in the future, they know they'll get the next Gran Turismo, the next FInal Fantasy, the next Grand Theft Auto.....all they need is a pricepoint that they can afford/justify.

In the case of gears, how much impact did it really have? 1.1million in Dec is not a fantastic number, and below analysts expectations at the time, so it's impact may be overstated imo.

 

[TheChefO]

In the case of gears, how much impact did it really have?

I think it had a much larger impact than just units sold of hardware or software.

I think it prevented many from blindly jumping on the ps3 bandwagon and taking a wait and see attitude. It showed the general populous what the xb360 was/is capable of and is still a reference point today.

Sony needs the same thing.

Regarding buying today for games of tomorrow, we've seen many times that this behavior is limited. Especially with so many questionmarks this gen. Who knows what games are actually exclusively coming to ps3 or how good they will actually be when they get there.

I think most people have reasons build up that culminate in purchase and the higher the price, the more or better reasons one needs.

No doubt many will jump on board with a pricecut to $400 as they expect more games down the road, but I think many more gamers are evaluating the situation and still balancing pros and cons.

 

[dobwal]

First of all, I don't believe there is ANY title which will move a high number of units at $500-600.

And, I really question the need of such a title, especially for Sony. Sony fans know what franchises will be coming, they know what they can expect in the future, they know they'll get the next Gran Turismo, the next FInal Fantasy, the next Grand Theft Auto.....all they need is a pricepoint that they can afford/justify.

In the case of gears, how much impact did it really have? 1.1million in Dec is not a fantastic number, and below analysts expectations at the time, so it's impact may be overstated imo.

Any one title is not going to move anything that cost $500-$600. However, the overall strength of your library is the primary mover of your console at any one price point once you get past the hype that a console release brings.

I think its a given that a PS3 with a GT, GTA, MGS4, KZ2, FF13 and any other high profile titles in its first year, would move a $600 PS3 alot better the current library can.

Only so many people buy a console off promise and that demographic diminishes the older your console becomes. The PS2 delivered GT3 within 8 months of the US release, FFX within 13 months of the US release, GTA3 within 11 months of the US release, Devil May Cry within 13 months of the US release, MGS2 within 13 months of the US release. All these titles showed up before or at PS2's second holiday season in the US.

 

[avaya]

Tacit confirmation by posters at NeoGAF that 400 to 449 Euro packs will be announced for Spain and France....


Something is happening from SCEE next monday.