Sis said:
For an example, I would point you to the iPod. There is nothing about the iPod that is difficult to do or that wasn't done before. Yet only one company has managed to do it successfully.
Actually, iPod is _very_ difficult to do and compete against, that's why only 1 company has done it well.
iPod is successful because of its end-to-end vertical integration, (DRM) usage model, mixed business model, plus savvy product, pricing and mass marketing. However implementationwise, it is "just" based on a reference design like any other MP3 player at that time. But Apple put in its own DRM, turned off Windows media support, make it louder, added scroll wheel, ...
XBLive while successful within the Xbox user community is far from "industry leading".
At this point, I think it is not as difficult as Microsoft made it to be, for Sony to catch up with XBL because:
(i) Unlike iPod, XBL has no mass adoption and is in fact constrainted by XB shipments
(ii) Unlike iPod, XBL has little lock-in and barrier of entry against Sony
(iii) Unlike iPod+iTunes Music Store, XB's usage, pricing and business model are not revolutionary. Even XBLA's recent success is based on well-known casual game dynamics on the Internet. It can be copied or improved by Sony due to its larger installed base.
(iv) XBL's smoothness, while bathed in blood, sweat and tears of its developers, is purely technical and product-based. I think it has very little leverage from marketing and business side for defence.
Which is why I commented that Sony "just" need to put a decent system together to match XBL. At this level, their challenges are mainly:
* UI simplicity, extensibility and consistency
* Optimization and depth in operations and feature sets
* Project management (time constrants, scope management)
The system integration part is not extraordinarily difficult to make Sony stumble.
Sis said:
I don't think we're in disagreement, but I do want to belabor the point: I would argue that rarely is a consumer product's success dependant on the resolution of a difficult engineering challenge. Many have proposed that Xbox Live does not require difficult engineering. This is probably correct. However, I believe that anyone who suggests this is underestimating the daunting task of systems integration which you call out as a seperate point but which I suggest IS the engineering challenge. Putting all the pieces together and running this system is feasible only if the engineering was done such that it is feasible.
Right. I'm not arguing that it's not difficult to develope XBL => it's easy to catch up with XBL.
I'm saying XBL as a business unit is not well-positioned yet. So Sony can implement something good enough and it can triumph XBL due to its other soft advantages.
Sorry for not being clear.