PS3+HD price speculation: Cast your vote / Analysis

[scooby_dooby]

Story here

Oh, and $449.

So in the span of one day, Sony went from "unsure" and "it will depend on the market" to this? That's very unlikely. Just another example of fine internet video game journalism...

 

[Urian]

In that case it would be probably even less as the failure rate should decrease and speed become less a problem and I dont know (taking out a SPU) if that estimet still correct or if it is even lower for Cell.

BTW is that chapter/table available online?

I must scan it and my book is in spanish.

I don´t know if moderators are going to allow me to put the scanned page.

 

[pc999]

I must scan it and my book is in spanish.

I don´t know if moderators are going to allow me to put the scanned page.

In that case it is better dont do that, because of mods (as I can read spanish), anyway it as just by curiosity to see if there are more interesting things, but thanks anyway .

 

[Farid]

I expect the US to get the best deal out of the three territories.

The Japaneses and the Europeans are going to ensure that the US get reasonably priced PS3... If I may say.

 

[Phil]

It will be $399 with no HDD. Mark my words...

I quite clearly labeled that this thread/poll is to center some thoughts on price speculation based on the idea that PS3 does launch with a harddrive. Sparking the argument that it will launch with or without a HD is not wanted in here. I'd appreciate it if you'd follow this or not post at all. Thanks.

 

[dukmahsik]

499 with HDD or more I say. If it's anything under that, I am getting one on launch day for sure. hehe... great value for the tech that comes with it.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I voted 499$, but anything between 399$-549$ wouldn't surprise me. I think that 399$ with HDD is possible, I mean PS2 launched at 299$ on 2000, I know there is lot's of stuff inside the PS3, but is it more advanced in 2006 than PS2 in 2000, I don't know, Sony knows it will sell, so they do hold lot's of cards in their hands, however PS3 is very crucial platform for them (Blu-Ray, and ofcourse money comes from games not hardware), so they want to ensure that they'll fly off the shelves, It was easier to predict the X360 price than this.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I quite clearly labeled that this thread/poll is to center some thoughts on price speculation based on the idea that PS3 does launch with a harddrive. Sparking the argument that it will launch with or without a HD is not wanted in here. I'd appreciate it if you'd follow this or not post at all. Thanks.

Which is why I voted $450. I just wanted to add my real prediction to the predictions thread.

 

[Npl]

I think it will sell at 399 without HDD. Seeing as you can already go out and buy 60GB PS3-HDDs for ~80€ that could make 449 as *bundle* with rebate.

Ie.: pay 450, get an PS3 and pick an additional 60GB HDD from a range of vendors.
Dunno what the fascination is with forced bundles

 

[ROG27]

I voted for $549. Relative to MS's offering that seems more than plausible, IMO. I'm amazed so many have voted for $449 or even $399! $449 without the HDD seems plausible enough. I think you'd be doing very well indeed to walk away with the PS3 and a 60GB HDD for $500.

According to another Analyst's predicition for BOM

Q2 06 = apprx. $650 USD per unit
Q3 06 = apprx. $550 USD per unit

average to manufacture BOM prior to launch: $600 USD

Sold at $150 USD loss initially (compared to $125 USD initial loss for X360) for $450.00 USD

That's how I arrived at my vote.

Utilized BOM numbers from NikkoCitiGroup Analyst Prediction

Link: http://www.ga-forum.com/showthread.php?t=90788

 

[ROG27]

I think it will sell at 399 without HDD. Seeing as you can already go out and buy 60GB PS3-HDDs for ~80€ that could make 449 as *bundle* with rebate.

Ie.: pay 450, get an PS3 and pick an additional 60GB HDD from a range of vendors.
Dunno what the fascination is with forced bundles

It makes sense from a business perspective.

It solidifies a user base where every customer has a unit with a HDD. Devs will be more likely to include added HDD functionality that way.

You could lose the 'bundle' SKU later, lower the stripped SKU's price, and offer an array of HDD choices (different sizes)...as long as a precedent is set that the user must have a HDD for the best functionality of the console (a la memory cards in PS2)...this will work.

 

[ROG27]

I expect the US to get the best deal out of the three territories.

The Japaneses and the Europeans are going to ensure that the US get reasonably priced PS3... If I may say.

Awesome...I'm okay with that. (American flag waving in the background)

Seriously, though, they have to. The XBOX brand is strongest in the States. It would be wise to subsidize the price the US consumer pays slightly in order to make it appear more attractive in the highly competitive American market.

 

[scooby_dooby]

It makes sense from a business perspective.

It solidifies a user base where every customer has a unit with a HDD. Devs will be more likely to include added HDD functionality that way.

You could lose the 'bundle' SKU later, lower the stripped SKU's price, and offer an array of HDD choices (different sizes)...as long as a precedent is set that the user must have a HDD for the best functionality of the console (a la memory cards in PS2)...this will work.

It makes sens if your goal is to build a large installed HDD base...if your goal is to turn a larger profit, it does not make sense. Doesn't selling additional memory cards for huge amounts of profit make much more sense than bundling a HDD at cost? You know...kinda like PS has always done?

 

[Inane_Dork]

I voted for $549. Relative to MS's offering that seems more than plausible, IMO. I'm amazed so many have voted for $449 or even $399! $449 without the HDD seems plausible enough. I think you'd be doing very well indeed to walk away with the PS3 and a 60GB HDD for $500.

Sony could sell out at $500 or $550, probably. The downside is that they would have to drop price very, very soon to keep sales up. And if people expect that, it might even further drop interest. I mean, does Sony want to copy the Xbox that much?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I must scan it and my book is in spanish.

I don´t know if moderators are going to allow me to put the scanned page.

Copyright law allows a degree of copying for 'fair use'. Quotes from a book are fair game. Whole chapters isn't! I'd be interested to see some info on chip costs. It's talked about on this forum a fair bit but no-one's really had real numbers to go on.

 

[ROG27]

It makes sens if your goal is to build a large installed HDD base...if your goal is to turn a larger profit, it does not make sense. Doesn't selling additional memory cards for huge amounts of profit make much more sense than bundling a HDD at cost? You know...kinda like PS has always done?

Has Sony always done a world-wide launch? Has Sony always been the technilogical forerunner? Has Sony always sold Value Packs (until recently with the PSP)?

Business is an ever-changing frontier...if you're going to be the latest to the party, you need to bring something extra to the table.

And their goal is to build a large install base of consoles with HDD...mass storage like the HDD is incredibly necessary to make online commerce a reality...Online commerce is the new revenue stream Sony has in mind with the PS3. If they didn't, they wouldn't be hyping up the online component, as well as their online distribution channel (Sony Connect), so much.

 

[dobwal]

Well lets see.....

the PS2 debut in japan at around $390.00 (?) in 2000

Using my own fruitless analysis and logic based on no real knowledge of Sony's actual manufacturing, R&D, components (bought in lots of a million) and Fab costs.

Now lets extrapolate using the PS2 as a baseline.

add the cost of nvidia royalties
add the cost of HDD
add the cost of BlueRay
add the cost of a large jump in RAM.
add the cost due to probable larger subsidization then PS2 as internal components seem to be more costly

substract cost due to the fact that Xbox360 is not the dreamcast and that Nintendo is launching at the same time period not a 9-12 months later which has a big effect on pricing strategy.
substract cost due to new revenue stream provided by online service and BlueRay.

now computate......beep..beep...boop....beep..boop..boop

Bingo!!!

Price of the PS3........ $499 with a margin of error of +/- $150.00
Price of adding nothing to a topic based off uneducated guesses....0

Just joking

 

[pc999]

Copyright law allows a degree of copying for 'fair use'. Quotes from a book are fair game. Whole chapters isn't! I'd be interested to see some info on chip costs. It's talked about on this forum a fair bit but no-one's really had real numbers to go on.

In that case it would be nice to have a idea on price numbers (even if they can be altered with speeds or others factors).

 

[rounin]

......beep..beep...boop....beep..boop..boop
Just joking

BAD R2D2

I actually think ROG27's prediction sounds pretty decent and is kinda logical if the point is to ensure a large HDD base / ensuring that games are flexible as possible.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Seems to me Sony has always made making money a much higer priority than making games 'flexible'