PS3+HD price speculation: Cast your vote / Analysis

[pc999]

i disagree Sony have no need to split in half to win this round, they want to keep their significative advance in market share, PS brand is awesomely strong.
In this regard NIntendo want to keep its niche market, and MS have a long term plan to overcome Sony supremacy (but not his round, for them a more balanced market, is a win has Sony should loss some 1st party support for next next gen lol)

People buy as long as they have money to that.

Sony will face a lot of pressure of XB in ocident and Rev on the orient (meybe in ocident too) and there will be better BD players things will not be easy from any POV.

The BD things is other thing, they will need to chosse what they will want to do with PS3 sell with as a console that plays BD or a BD that plays games, the first one should be much more sucessefull/proffit so they should price with that in mind, so at the max 400$.

 

[Titanio]

Sony will face a lot of pressure of XB in ocident and Rev on the orient (meybe in ocident too) and there will be better BD players things will not be easy from any POV.

I doubt there'll be a Blu-ray player as featured as PS3 in the same price range. Nor one that plays PS3/PS2/PS1 games, and every else PS3 does

Seriously though, some of the first Blu-ray players that are $1000+ don't offer everything PS3 will in terms of movie playback (1080p-out, next-gen HDMI etc.). There's more than enough hardware there to offer excellent decoding, too, versus dedicated players. Kutaragi went out of his way to say that PS3 won't be a lower-tier BD player, and it's a pretty convincing argument given the features, on paper at least.

 

[Fast]

Here is what Kaz Hirai had to say regarding the price in an interview with PSM, the interview is from Nov-Dec I think.

PSM: There some concern about PS3 being priced out of the reach of everyone but the hardcore early adopters. Is this valid?

Kai Hirai: I woud say that our past performance is the best indication of our future performance, and for at least three platforms, I think we have been bringing an excellent value to consumers, but also providing them with cuttingedge technology. I go back to less than a year ago when people looked at the PSP, and I got questions like “wow, this thing is great, but what do you think? $500?â€￾ and I said, “well, the proof is in the pudding: we’ve done Playstation and Playstation 2 at an affordable price,â€￾ and people just said “yeah, right!â€￾ response. But we went out there with a $249 value pack, and I think people were pleasantly surprised. I not saying, therefore, that the PS3 is going to be $249, $299, whatever, but I think we have pretty good history of providing value for what we bring to the consumers.

http://playstation3.wordpress.com/2005/12/11/ps3-interviews-on-playstation-magazine/

 

[pc999]

And what kind of users buy BD at launch? I guess they are the same of those who buy a PS3 at any cost, plus a BD player from Sony will probably use Cell too but a lot less of the others features so it should cost less anyway.

But my argument is that if they will sell PS3 as a console they need to price it as a console and I think that more than 400$ will be to much for a mainstream console.

 

[Titanio]

But my argument is that if they will sell PS3 as a console they need to price it as a console and I think that more than 400$ will be to much for a mainstream console.

I can see $400 for the console, but not including HDD.

We're not talking about mainstream prices here. That'll come later. We're talking about launch price.

 

[liolio]

I think Sony can't go as low as 400$ in the first year, to much loss.
Anyway when the time of mass market will come (2008 or maybe fall 2007) the price will go down.
at this time Sony will have sold more or less 12 millions consoles (1 millions per month including optimistic supplies issues).
Anyway Sony will be more or less stressed depending of sell number MS will have to show us (ie 4.5/5 millions units). If MS don't reach its goal Sony will keep his Market share (depending on BigN but i don't think in a huge margin ).

 

[Platon]

Okay, I'll take a stab at a BOM and go from there: Cell + RSX = $200, BR+HD = $120, packaging, advertising etc. = $30.

So, $50 profit per console would give a nice $399 figure.

Cell, though radical, isn't any huge investment compared to EE/GS and with RSX being, essentially, a commodity part the cost there is low. Included in the cost is the motherboard etc and controller costs that generally come witht he console. BluRay might cost a bit more just because it's new but Sony make it. The HD is quite cheap and easy to get in quantities from 3rd parties however, if they do an MS (and get stuck selling 20gb drives which are no longer standard), that may rise.

As Shifty says, Sony have a nice hand to play. They can combat MS on every front by saying 'hey why buy a HD or HD-DVD when you can buy Sony and have it all in the box' making the 360 look cheap and lacking functionality leaving MS with the option of saying "it's expandable" (here I anticipate the cost of a 360 Premium + HD-DVD will be greater than the basic PS3). BluRay players won't be like DVD players by the end of the year with the cost of most standalones high to target the professional market just as it was with the PS2 release - a lot of people bought one at $299 for a DVD player and the added feature of playing games NOT games then the added feature of playing DVDs. And, with all of this, they still have the 'HD starts here' game to play - Xbox doesn't have HDMI or a next gen format or etc...

$399 is my guess.

You forgot the RAM, and I think that you underestimate the prices of the rest...

 

[Phil]

Well, seeing the votes and the debate in progress, I think neither is wrong in what they voted and ultimately, it really boils down to strategy.

I perfectly understand pc999's point of view, but also Titanio's.

I think we can all agree that what Sony will be offering at price X will be great value - no matter if the price is at $399 or as high as $599. It will sell out on launch day, even if solely by hardcore gamers, loyal platform supports and geeks, that much I think is certain.

There are two different strategies I see plausible:

1.)
Launch at a high price (above $500), target harcore gamers, geeks and loyal supporters until they move to 60nm and casuals start gaining interest and THEN lower it down to something that would make it 'mainstream'.

2.)
Launch at a 'mainstream' price, take a higher loss and then keep it there for as long as 2 years or more. If we think back, Sony already did this back in the day with PS2 and it seemed to work out fine. Demand was always high and they kept the price high for a very long time.



Now, I see various pro's and con's for both of these scenarios:

Scenario 1 (selling high, then lower it later):

- Even if the console will not be targeting the mainstream consumer initially, they will be aware of the price and may loose interest quickly (and show more interest for Xbox360). If they will regain interest when the price does lower remains to be seen. Perhaps Microsoft would also use this to its advantage to gain momentum with its Xbox360.

- What if it doesn't sell as well as they anticipate? How quick will they be able to lower the price to regain interest without loosing face? We saw something similar happen with Xbox in Europe where the prices quickly fell after it failed to make a large impact.

- How well will it sell and what kind of an impact will it make in the race between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray?


Scenario 2 (selling moderate and keeping it there):

- Surprises competition and most likely everyone as well. Amazing price, amazing value. Demand skyrockets ridiculously because everything thinks they're getting a bargain. Even though it will be sold out for a very long time and hard to find - for that price, just about anyone interested will be willing to wait.

- Larger loss initially, but you'll practically have a very large demand. Hopefully, with the larger loss, higher sales and demand will ensure quick software sales in movies and software to make up for losses.

- Keep the price at that level for as long as 3 years - depending on how well the competition (Xbox360) can keep up, it may put a large pressure on them, since they aren't competing anymore with an identical system, but a system selling at practically the same entry price but offers more! If Sony can put on pressure like this, Microsoft may find themselves in a position where they might have to lower prices accoardingly to remain in front.



Personally, I see the $399 as more and more likely the longer I think about it. I thought I remain a bit on the realistic side by voting higher, but I'm beginning to like that idea of scenario 2.

 

[pc999]

I can see $400 for the console, but not including HDD.

We're not talking about mainstream prices here. That'll come later. We're talking about launch price.

Personally I doubt, even the sw side of things his different now, once that considering production cost of games they can only do a) raise the games b)have large instaled base and once that games are the main proffit souces higher prices may have a drastic impact on that (less consoles->less games sold->less suport->less consoles...).

I just cant see many people buying one at more than 400$ and if they have suply it may be very bad, plus they will have a lot of pressure because if you arent interested on BD* they will have a hard time convicing you to give more 100$(+?) instead of a XB and meybe even more if Rev is comparable and you dont own a HDTV or if Rev is just as good as Nintendo tell us, last time tatics will not work (as?) well today.

Things this time will be much harder, as they are not going against a almost ruined Sega and they almost can only lose (market share, unless the market grows a lot very fast). Personally I think that this time any of them should strike with full force and try to gain the most market share as fast as they can as this will start as vicius circle that is only broken with a new gen, in the long term it will probably be the better, this, of curse, assuming they want to sell the PS3 as a console.


*eg no movies for a good time etc... just buy a BD player latter at much better prices and qualitity

Edit:text

 

[liolio]

I think that with unexpected WW Sony is already stricking at FULL FORCE

 

[Titanio]

because if you arent interested on BD* they will have a hard time convicing you to give more 100$(+?) instead of a XB and meybe even more

I'd say most early adopters, the people paying these prices, WILL be interested in Blu-ray. Most 360 early adopters already have a HDTV, or plan to buy one soon. That'll be the same type of person buying a PS3 at launch. People with HDTVs want HD content, and if you like games you're also probably the type of person that likes movies. $100 (or whatever) on top of 360's launch price for that capability will look very good to them, IMO, particularly when compared to the prices of other BD players.

 

[pc999]

I think that with unexpected WW Sony is already stricking at FULL FORCE

Tell that to those how live in Japan , and there it will be head to head with Rev and that may be a very serios threat in japan (even if not comparable in specs).

 

[liolio]

that why theirs *** hurt so badly lol.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I chose $499 because they will be supply limited and figure they'll get it anyway. Then they can drop $100 off at E3 2007 when MS does the same with the X360.

 

[Carl B]

I voted $449, basically just because I had to vote something and that represents my best middle of the road guess. I honestly could see anything though, nothing would surprise me.

 

[pc999]

I'd say most early adopters, the people paying these prices, WILL be interested in Blu-ray. Most 360 early adopters already have a HDTV, or plan to buy one soon. That'll be the same type of person buying a PS3 at launch. People with HDTVs want HD content, and if you like games you're also probably the type of person that likes movies. $100 (or whatever) on top of 360's launch price for that capability will look very good to them, IMO, particularly when compared to the prices of other BD players.

And those that will buy in November a XB (or even Rev) will have HDTVs? Because it will probably be cheaper, then the mainstrem will buy it and are those how will concern Sony and dev (that now more than ever need to sell many games) and that can dictate the rest of the gen (as XB like game market, ie, build well for fewer that buy more, will probably not work with at least 8x production costs).

BTW from all the info we got it doesnt seem it will be supply limited, so I dont see that as a reason, if if it is that would only sustein for 2-3 mounths

Plus normally the bigest diference (for the decision) between a early adopter and a latter one is the price. That those how star buying XBs or GCs after the price cut to 1/2 would probably bought them much earlier if the price allows (like it will probably happens with me, I will wait till a price then buy it, the price is the only reason I dont buy earlier a next gen consoles).

 

[scooby_dooby]

It will be $399 with no HDD. Mark my words...

 

[Urian]

349$.

-99$ for Cell at 65nm
-60$ for RSX at 65nm
-70$ for BD-ROM drive
-29$ Hard Disk Drive
-Rest for the memory, mainboard and the rest of the components.

1. In the chapter of Hennessy and Patterson book dedicated to performance and costs you can see a table where the 225mm2 CPU in a 150nm waffer has a cost price of 199$, since a Cell at 90nm have the same size and a Cell at 65nm is half size than one at 90nm I believe that the Cell cost is 99$

2. Same for RSX

3. Personally. I can´t believe that a BD-ROM drive have a cost of 320$ like a lot of sites are saying. The reason why I think this is simple, today you can make a DVD-Drive for 10$ of cost and the difference between the DVD and the HD-DVD is a type of laser diode with another pieces that have a cost of 30$. DVD Forums says that BluRay is more expensive and cost a 75% more (70$).

If I am wrong, please, correct me.

 

[pc999]

1. In the chapter of Hennessy and Patterson book dedicated to performance and costs you can see a table where the 225mm2 CPU in a 150nm waffer has a cost price of 199$, since a Cell at 90nm have the same size and a Cell at 65nm is half size than one at 90nm I believe that the Cell cost is 99$

In that case it would be probably even less as the failure rate should decrease and speed become less a problem and I dont know (taking out a SPU) if that estimet still correct or if it is even lower for Cell.

BTW is that chapter/table available online?

 

[Ginko]

It will be $399 with no HDD. Mark my words...

Our Sony representative has confirmed this morning that PlayStation 3 will come with a 60GB HDD as standard, but that can be upgraded if preferred.

Story here

Oh, and $449.