Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

[Prophecy2k]

Even if PS5 isn't BC, maybe they would keep the dev tools and majority of the API's the same or legacy support them, to make cross gen games development easier.
Also don't know if the PS5 would be in the same software ecosystem which would make it a clean generation break, even if it did support BC.

Couple things we know about MS for definite although may obviously change in the future, but this is their current plan.
X2 will definitely be BC, Phil Spencer has gone on record about being able to support old games for multiple reasons a few times.
They are committed to UWP and the windows store, Xbox live (even as a social network) Last weeks build highlighted all this.

So I expect the X2 to run UWP (and X1 games), be in the windows store and be on the same Xbox live network.
They didn't like how they had to do x360 BC, so I expect all X1 games to just work on X2 without needing patches, or re-downloads etc.

MS are pushing dynamic res etc, so on newer hardware it will play and look better or minimum the same.
So graphically majority of games will be able to scale between generations anyway.
But it's the non graphics parts that could be an issue, and if a studio wants to develop a game that can't scale then they can just target X2 for a couple years in, when there's a sufficient install base.
The likelihood will be that PS5 & X2 will release within a year of eachother if not the same year.
So most multiplat games will aim for PS5 & X2 if the engine can't scale down. If the engine can scale down then they will have a larger install base to sell to on xbox, e.g. indie or AA game.

If Sony goes clean generation break and MS does not, it may work in MS's favour.With people feeling more committed to the ecosystem due to digital library etc.
The big budget AAA games it won't affect either way to much, as the size of PS5 & X2 install base is what will matter to the publisher.

People always says BC doesn't matter especially couple years in, the difference now is digital, and it would be start of new gen. So that may help MS claw back market share at that time.
I can also see Sony using their streaming service to support BC if their console doesn't, which may be their way around it.

I'm not sure I buy that it's much more different now than last-gen's transition with respect to sales volumes of digitally distributed software.

Even if it were, there are like 60m PS4s to what 26-27m XB1s sold so far. So even if Sony do a clean break and MS don't, and gamers en-mass decide that this time BC is more important than new games, none of those 60m PS4 owners will be able to transfer their digital games libraries over to XB2, so it's kinda moot.

 

[HBRU]

Sony has not invested into something similar to UWP and so is more hardware bounded (with some gains in efficiency of hardware utilization toward MS... at least before DX12)... and even MS (with UWP) keeped the same blamed Jaguars into Scorpio.

I know JAGUAR is a sound that people doesnt want to hear here... but how to manage a monthly subcription without runnable titles ? Well MS has plenty... and Sony ?

Sony has all the PS4 titles that are quite a lot and will be much much more.... a lot of them remastered masterpieces (for instance Borderland 2). So I think "my" forward compatibility for NEW PS5 GAMES is the solution Sony must use (USE a certain fixed percentage of GPU calc power -more or less depend on console type- to sistematically replace lacking CPU power by using specific Sony libraries that run down to vanilla PS4).

 

[Jay]

I'm not sure I buy that it's much more different now than last-gen's transition with respect to sales volumes of digitally distributed software.

the rate of DD is going up by a rapid rate YoY. So it is a lot more different than any other previous gen.

Even if it were, there are like 60m PS4s to what 26-27m XB1s sold so far. So even if Sony do a clean break and MS don't, and gamers en-mass decide that this time BC is more important than new games, none of those 60m PS4 owners will be able to transfer their digital games libraries over to XB2, so it's kinda moot.

why would BC mean no new games?

let's address the people your talking about firstly.
if they don't care about bc, then they may just prefer Sony or ms, but they also could jump ship if they feel the other console is better for them. So, your 60m could go either ps5 or x2 a lot easier.

the other aspect is people who due to their digital library feel invested because of it.
if only ms is providing BC then a higher subset of 26-27m Xbox owners will upgrade to x2 and not jump ship.
in this regards it's about trying to keep people you already have.

 

[Prophecy2k]

the rate of DD is going up by a rapid rate YoY. So it is a lot more different than any other previous gen.

why would BC mean no new games?

let's address the people your talking about firstly.
if they don't care about bc, then they may just prefer Sony or ms, but they also could jump ship if they feel the other console is better for them. So, your 60m could go either ps5 or x2 a lot easier.

the other aspect is people who due to their digital library feel invested because of it.
if only ms is providing BC then a higher subset of 26-27m Xbox owners will upgrade to x2 and not jump ship.
in this regards it's about trying to keep people you already have.

All this ignores the reasons why 60m out of a total of 87m existing console owners chose to go PS4 over XB1 in the first place.

If for those 60m console owners, the choice of either new-gen consoles means losing your back catalog, then BC on THIS gen-transition becomes an irrelevant factor in their purchasing decision. Given that those 60m console owners are likely already invest in PS-exclusive or PS-associated franchises, then all else being equal they will be more likely to go PS5 for the new-gen.

BC is not the thing that will give MS the advantage going into this next-gen, in terms of persuading existing PS4 owners to jump ship. It might help, existing XB1 owners to stick around but that's not an advantage MS can boast over their closest competitor. Trying to stop your existing customers from abandoning your platform is not the same as making efforts to lure new customers to your platform. And as I see BC, it serves more the former than the latter.

I think the benefits of BC and access to your purchased backlog is in many ways an overstated benefit on internet forums. I just don't think it really matters all that much to the majority of mainstream and casual gamers.

As much as I consider myself to be more of a core gamer, someone who would appreciate and benefit from BC, I still don't feel that after the first year of a new console being on the market that it even retains much importance beyond that point. At this point in the gen, i.e. 3 yrs in, my personal backlog of games is that vast that I wouldn't even have time to go back and play PS3 games even if I had instant, free access to my digital back-catalog on my PS4.

Once the new-gen games start rolling out en-masse, and especially with many of these new GaaS model games (like Destiny) that increase player retention by an order of magnitude, gamers simply won't have the attention span nor the time to go back and play old-gen games, outside of the most dedicated few.

I just don't think BC matters all that much.

 

[iroboto]

one of our issues of comparison is that BC was never expected to come to XBO. And when it did arrive it was significantly after launch. If XBO launched as it is today I would say that the story around Xbox would be significantly different.

Getting off on that terrible start just compounded Sony's lead for years. It's not something that is recoverable. But next generation should be different for XBox, and PS. They should be shipping with a similar OS so they don't need to start from scratch again. Many consumers came away confused on how next gen consoles had less features than last gen. hopefully for both these issues will be rectified by then.

That being said, the investment that MS continues to put towards infrastructure and platform will carry over to their next console. BC is an interesting feature only if you have games people still want to play; and there has been more great games in general released now than ever. If MS can turn its library around in preparation for next gen, that will become a selling point.

The BC sale that is happening today on XBOX seems to be doing well. at least well received.

 

[Prophecy2k]

..snip..

That being said, the investment that MS continues to put towards infrastructure and platform will carry over to their next console. BC is an interesting feature only if you have games people still want to play; and there has been more great games in general released now than ever. If MS can turn its library around in preparation for next gen, that will become a selling point.

The BC sale that is happening today on XBOX seems to be doing well. at least well received.

I would contest the bolded.

The PS2 and PS3 gens were much better in both quantity and quality (also in quantity) - especially for MS's platform. There are significantly fewer console games released today than ever before, significantly fewer high quality console games. There are significantly fewer new IP released today than ever before and even fewer high quality ones.

Most big successful games currently are IP that found their genesis or creation last gen.. With established franchises, like AC, Far Cry, COD, BF, FIFA, Madden etc etc... BC then becomes much less important because we can all but guarantee that successive entries in those (many annual) series will release early on next-gen consoles and will in most cases be better games.

BC generally tends to be most important for a combination of SP or very narrative-driven games or games which provide a unique experience that few other games replicate.

If a game is one of many in an established perpetual series, whose narrative continuity isn't a major selling point, or the game is primarily MP focused, gamers are much more likely to pick up the new-gen "modern" version than pine after BC to play the old "dated" games... e.g. nobody would care to go back and play MW3 or AC1 at this point, whereas games like TLOU add value to BC.

In which case, considering the games we have today. I'd argue that the value of BC to play PS1/PS2/PS3 era games on PS5/XB2 would be greater than PS4/XB1 era games for most gamers. Especially once the newest editions of those big AAA third party games start showing up, i.e. from launch onwards.

I'm starting to think that BC will have never been less important than it is today. I'd love to see some survey data on the subject tbh... somebody tweet Nielson Institute.

 

[iroboto]

I would contest the bolded.

The PS2 and PS3 gens were much better in both quantity and quality (also in quantity) - especially for MS's platform. There are significantly fewer console games released today than ever before, significantly fewer high quality console games. There are significantly fewer new IP released today than ever before and even fewer high quality ones..

Maybe I could be wrong, but I was under the assumptions that more games per year were being released now than ever (if we look at the whole lot).

 

[Prophecy2k]

Maybe I could be wrong, but I was under the assumptions that more games per year were being released now than ever (if we look at the whole lot).

I believe I saw a spot on Youtube by Colin Moriarty saying a similar thing. It's probably true when you consider ALL games, however, AAA tentpole releases are very much the bread and butter of console gaming, and given what we're considering in this discussion, i.e. BC, the games that provide its value and its impact on the next-gen console value proposition, I think the big AAA are for the most part going to be the biggest influencers of gamer's purchasing decisions.

I think anyone would struggle to argue that there are more AAA games released per year. In fact, I'm pretty sure its entirely the opposite.

 

[iroboto]

I believe I saw a spot on Youtube by Colin Moriarty saying a similar thing. It's probably true when you consider ALL games, however, AAA tentpole releases are very much the bread and butter of console gaming, and given what we're considering in this discussion, i.e. BC, the games that provide its value and its impact on the next-gen console value proposition, I think the big AAA are for the most part going to be the biggest influencers of gamer's purchasing decisions.

I think anyone would struggle to argue that there are more AAA games released per year. In fact, I'm pretty sure its entirely the opposite.

I don't disagree, but the value of BC changes depending on what else the platform is capable of doing. It also depends on what it offers ultimately, its performance etc. Sometimes features on their own aren't enough to woo people over, especially if the feature isn't well baked. But with the right mixture of different features energizing with each other and the quality of BC, heck, any feature can become a selling point if I write it like that. I think BC leading into next gen will be one of those features.

If PS5 has BC, it's value to me is much higher (having missed out on PS4 and PS3. The idea that I have or will have to pay for remasters at $80 a pop, vs a BC title ($5 a pop) is not something I want considering the graphical qualities have not been night and day with remasters anyway.

 

[HBRU]

Sorry to be monotone: but -commercially viewed- its the Forward Compatibility what interest most IMHO, aka: how to improve -on the gaming point of wiev, IA, Physic, environment alive, dress vrapping and movements- by keeping the 100 milions PS4 (at the end of 2019) and the possible new PS5 toghether on the same software envirnoment.... and give at the same time a true PS5 next gen advancement (16 Jaguars-core, 16 Gbytes GDDR6, 9 Teraflops), 256 Gbytes SDD... a cooling solution similar to the one of Scorpio.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Sorry to be monotone: but -commercially viewed- its the Forward Compatibility what interest most IMHO, aka: how to improve -on the gaming point of wiev, IA, Physic, environment alive, dress vrapping and movements- by keeping the 100 milions PS4 (at the end of 2019) and the possible new PS5 toghether on the same software envirnoment.... and give at the same time a true PS5 next gen advancement (16 Jaguars-core, 16 Gbytes GDDR6, 9 Teraflops), 256 Gbytes SDD... a cooling solution similar to the one of Scorpio.

That's unnecessary for the console specs you provide here. Especially if you're thinking your hypothetical PS5 APU will be manufactured on a 7nm process node. heat pipes will be more than enough, and cheaper by a good factor of 3-5.

9 TFLOPS and Jaguar would be a huge disappointment too, especially in 2020-2021. Unless you're expecting PS5 in 2018 on a 16nm/14nm FinFett process?

 

[Prophecy2k]

I don't disagree, but the value of BC changes depending on what else the platform is capable of doing. It also depends on what it offers ultimately, its performance etc. Sometimes features on their own aren't enough to woo people over, especially if the feature isn't well baked. But with the right mixture of different features energizing with each other and the quality of BC, heck, any feature can become a selling point if I write it like that. I think BC leading into next gen will be one of those features.

I see where you're coming from. The value of BC in absolute terms is likely to be quite low in terms of it's ability to impact consumer's purchasing decisions. It's a feature that is so heavily dependent on so many other factors (as you correctly expressed), that we cannot really even assign it a value on its own. Which kind of renders the whole discussion a little meaningless.

So this is the issue, BC is really a feature whose value is largely dependent on two things: the available games libraries - i.e. both a large library of prev. gen-console games being available and a small library of new-gen console games.

In which case it's value reduces over time. Equally, because it's so dependent on available games it provides access to, the value of the feature is inherently subjective because different gamers will value different games selections differently.

If PS5 has BC, it's value to me is much higher (having missed out on PS4 and PS3. The idea that I have or will have to pay for remasters at $80 a pop, vs a BC title ($5 a pop) is not something I want considering the graphical qualities have not been night and day with remasters anyway.

To be fair, so long as you're in no rush to play those legacy games, the price of remasters will eventually drop to your $5 threshold anyway, and then you'll get the benefit of both having access to some of those games (sure only the remastered ones) and being bale to play them in a higher resolution or with better performance. So for someone, in your position BC's value would only really offer you more immediacy in your access to cheap legacy games and a wider catalog of them.

I would have thought BC's biggest value would be to those who want to retain access to their existing back catalog of old-gen games, i.e. those who don't want to re-buy their games. That seems more intuitive to me.

 

[BRiT]

The value of Backwards Compatability functionality drasticly increases when paired with a Netflix-like Feature. Microsoft knows this, hence why they're going to make available the Xbox Games Pass this summer that will include BC and current-gen games.

 

[iroboto]

To be fair, so long as you're in no rush to play those legacy games, the price of remasters will eventually drop to your $5 threshold anyway, and then you'll get the benefit of both having access to some of those games (sure only the remastered ones) and being bale to play them in a higher resolution or with better performance. So for someone, in your position BC's value would only really offer you more immediacy in your access to cheap legacy games and a wider catalog of them.

I would have thought BC's biggest value would be to those who want to retain access to their existing back catalog of old-gen games, i.e. those who don't want to re-buy their games. That seems more intuitive to me.

There's that. And not all games get remastered. And some games are too difficult to re buy as physical. A bunch of different reasons to get into BC for different folks, some are collectors, some are players etc, some just want to play the older titles before the new sequel comes out.

I just can't come up with a solid reason as to why a larger game catalog would be considered on par/neutral with having a smaller game catalog. I guess that's where this discussion is ultimately headed. I don't think it's feasible for either of us to come up with all the different reasons to break down why someone would love/not care about BC. But in the end the math works out to be 275+ 360 BC games, + XBO games, + XB2 games at launch just seems much greater than > XB2 games.

Gives something to do even when titles are thin at launch. There's just more variety and options from the get go. Whether you choose to leverage it is another thing entirely.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Tbf, I just saw that COD: BLOPS II charted in the top 10 NPD for April because of XB1 BC...

I guess, if that's not a rock solid argument for the value of BC then I don't know what is, lol.

Ergo, I retract all my statements and merely say...

... Eh! Sony! Get off your backside and fix dis sh!t!!!

 

[Jay]

Tbf, I just saw that COD: BLOPS II charted in the top 10 NPD for April because of XB1 BC...

I guess, if that's not a rock solid argument for the value of BC then I don't know what is, lol.

Ergo, I retract all my statements and merely say...

... Eh! Sony! Get off your backside and fix dis sh!t!!!

That's pretty crazy, that's not people dusting off their old copies, it's people actually buying new.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Yup

 

[iroboto]

Tbf, I just saw that COD: BLOPS II charted in the top 10 NPD for April because of XB1 BC...

I guess, if that's not a rock solid argument for the value of BC then I don't know what is, lol.

Ergo, I retract all my statements and merely say...

... Eh! Sony! Get off your backside and fix dis sh!t!!!

it could get me to finally buy a PS console. I was very close this round so close it was ridiculous. But I bought into the vision of kinect which failed me. I bought into the all in 1 media that failed me. and I've been too invested to switch off xbox because too many of my buddies work for MS (thus discounts on software), so in the end I've not left because of $$$, and I like the controllers.

But pS5 with some solid BC will be very enticing for someone looking to play the greatest hits of the last 10+ years.

 

[turkey]

That's pretty crazy, that's not people dusting off their old copies, it's people actually buying new.

Or seeing the light and going digital

Either way that's good revenue and engaged customers.

 

[HBRU]

Well... how to implement a GOOD forward compatibility... they did it on "The Surge" with the amazing DECK13's FLEDGE ENGINE!