Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

I predict that the makers of next generation consoles will push for developers to render in 4K or higher, negating the majority of possible graphical improvements. The developers will be very happy with this, because developing a highly stylized game at 4K will be more cost effective than pushing more photorealistic graphics.

 

I want Naughty Dog to create a 720p30 game on PS5K hardware. Photorealistic graphics FTW.

 

A lot of devs are already saying rendering at 4k is a waste of processing power. You're not likely to see any games actually render everything at 4k.

 

I'd agree with that. That's sort of inline with foveated rendering. Using a compute shader asynchronously tied to the vblank to interpret tiles of varying resolution or framerate to the actual scene. Much more options to tailor performance to a bunch of scenes that way.

 

So now that it seems that Sony will continue with console "generations". When do you think a PS5 would launch and what specs?

I'm tempted to say 2019 but I'm going with 2020.

7nm apu
zen+ cpu
24GB HBM2 mem
15TFlop gpu
1TB SSD
$499

 

Since node shrinks are slowing down and console manufacturers are refreshing their offer with optional midgen solutions [4-6 TF], I don't expect really big jumps this time.

- LittleZen+Radeon APU with ~160-180W power draw.
- The cheapest RAM they can find that can hit 24+ gigs size, even if it's not clocked at above 512MB/s. That includes even GDDR5/X/6 if they start making it at 2GB [PS4 launched with 16x512MB, PS5 could launch with 16x2GB].
- single chip package 1TB SSD fused on the mobo
- $399

 

I'd say Sony goes for low cost HBM (Samsung is developing, I think others too).

 

I have the opposite view. At least with Sony. It sounds like they still believe in console generations and the fact they have a mid gen refresh means to me that they will have to go for a significant leap with PS5 to differentiate and attract consumers. Simply putting out an incremental type upgrade for PS5 will not do for them.

I figured HBM because I don't see how it isn't the mainstream VRAM by 2020...at least for AMD. Unless it completely fails.

I really don't see how they could still stick with mechanical hard drive in 2020. SSD/flash storage will have to be thought of from the beginning of the design stages for a PS5.

 

I guess a more conservative estimate would be:

7nm apu
zen+ cpu
20GB HBM 2/32GB GDDR5/X/6
12Tflop GPU
1TB flash storage

 

250GB onboard ssd
1 or 2Tb HDD
the ssd holds OS, last used games/apps snapshots.
So 90% of the time almost instant access to games your playing exactly where you left off. Remember is just memory snapshot so it doesn't need to store all the game, so should be able to store a few games on there.
I don't know if 1tb ssd would be cheap enough even in 2020 when compared to hdd. But then I have know idea what's going on in that market at all.

I think regardless if iteration or generation based, they will both be forced to release comparable machines.

 

I think it would be possible for a 1TB SSD console in fall 2020 @$499.

Like I said I hope any new consoles designed post-Scorpio have flash storage as part of the spec target. Even if that means cutting back on on other areas to make the pricepoint.

I think I'd take a PS5 with lower gpu flops and memory if it meant flash storage. It ultimately would be a more balanced system.

 

I'd love to believe an SSD in next gen but I think it may be too expensive, although as suggested an internal SSD flash would probably suffice - even just a small 60/120GB SSD.
I also personally think Sony will reveal a ~12TF PS5 meaning ~double what Scorpio can do. I also expect everything else to roughly double (Scorpio) and it have a 2TB hybrid HDD.
Previously I suggested 2019 so I will stick with that, but (as I said before) I think it may depend on how well Scorpio is doing, if it's not threatening Sony then 2020.

 

Seems like a massive stretch to me. 3 years from today we would have 2x a 1070 in APU format and a matching CPU to fuel it. With only 1 node shrink. The 970 was released 2 years ago today. 3.5 TF approximately. 1070 is now 5.8-6.4 depending on your clock. That's not even double after 2 years. And these are full sized GPUS. I'll ignore price point because nvidia is premium priced so it's a bit hard to translate what it should be at. But I just don't see this trend of doubling happening. Doubling tends to be something at the frontier, and not so much at the mid tier. Mid tier doesn't quite move as fast. And consoles to be cheaper need to have more redundancies on silicon to ensure there is less waste.

Then you gotta factor in all the other parts and hold a $499 price point seems just too tough to swallow.

For there to be a 12 TF PS5. There would have to be graphic cards near 16-20TF in 3 years.



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Double scoprio (~12Tflop gpu and ~24GB of memory) might do it.

 

Isn't a 1080 9TF? As a comparison, 3/4 years before PS4/XBO what GPUS were coming out?

Edit 1 A quick a dirty search shows a ~1.8TF GPU (GTX295) came out just under 4 years before PS4. So with this flawed logic in 4 years we can expect a ~9TF PS5? How does that work with Scorpio?

Edit 2 A quick and dirty serach suggests the 4.3TF GTX Titan came out ~4 years before Scorpio.

Edit 3 Titan X is 11TF

So...where does that leave us!?

 

We might set an upper limit of ~8x the 28nm APUs if we're looking at the "7nm" generation. Then again, they might be more conservative knowing that it'll be that much longer for future die reductions.

I'd be curious to see where FP16 support goes for games.

 

I"m going to go conservative and say the upper bound will be around the rumored Vega 10 performance.

The power reductions due to the upcoming nodes won't deliver huge increases so I think that will be the biggest limiting factor. I think they'll want a much better performing CPU as well so that will eat into the GPU power and die budget.

7nm
12 Tflop
8Core - 16T Zen
32 GB memory
300mm die / 175W power draw (higher than launch PS4, but lower than PS4Pro/PS3)

They'll probably target 4K/VR so I think the actual gains in rendering/per pixel quality will be the smallest yet.

 

2020DC (Maybe Nvidia is back? )
7nm FF (... GF/TSMC something like "true 14 nm" ...)
12TFlops GPU
180 watts
Zen+ 8 cores
32GB (8/12 HBM 2 + 24/20GB GDDR5)
2TB SSHD
4k UHD BD drive
US$399/449

 

Speculation I suppose. TDP seems to a be a very limiting factor for consoles. You can get away with a lot if heat and power are not a concern, some good silicon and a good clock can get you to the numbers you want to be at.

And that's actually a big reason I don't look at the high end. Because I know they're running the best silicon, the price point at that range is absurd.
We should be looking at Vega as McHuj mentions earlier. But man, hard pressed to believe it would go from 6 TF in 2017 to jump to 12TF in 2019. I guess that's a generational difference between PS4 and PS5.

It's unfortunate that we only have FLOPS and ROPs to measure by. I have a strong inkling that since 4K is going to be the standard mode of resolution soon 5+ years, there could very well be a different approach to the problem in the pipeline.

How long has AMD been working on Vega. The whole, stacked VRAM thing. We're talking full Vega, on an APU with stacked memory.

I dunno, just a lot of challenges, and it would appear to me that, there is likely a better approach to 4K waiting to be discovered than to just keep upping the numbers like this. There has to be.

 

If HBM ever drops sufficiently in cost, it should help TDP a lot. Well at least a little.