Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

[Jay]

I agree I find it doubtful selling at a loss.
but I don't think equalling ps4 neo is "more than enough" either.
I thought they would go slightly more powerful, but make it upgradable xfire slot/module.
that way can be close to twice as powerful but they still would not be selling at a loss.

 

[turkey]

how would they know where neo was power wise at the point at which they had to make their own decisions? I was under the impression this soft of thing needed to be done a long way before launch?

 

[iroboto]

how would they know where neo was power wise at the point at which they had to make their own decisions? I was under the impression this soft of thing needed to be done a long way before launch?

If Neo is launching this winter, and it's highly likely given that 1 console will be released this year and it's not Nintendo or MS. Neo is set in stone.

MS still has time to finalize their product after Neo's unveiling I assume. You have to remember both MS, Sony and Nintendo have access to the same hardware, so they must have a reasonable guess as to what the target spec will be at each release window.

 

[mpg1]

The fact that consoles are now effectively using PC commodity hardware may make selling at a loss more possible economically because costs will drop faster than traditional console hardware did.

If they started selling at $50-100 loss they could be break even within a year.

OK my prediction

Xbox next:
8 core zen cpu
Vega 10 GPU, 64 CU's, ~10TFlops
16GB HBM2 memory

Price $499 (actual cost > $600)

Launch 2017

 

[London Geezer]

What kind of business sense would that be?

You're expecting a company that knowingly launched a console with 50% less GPU power - and still refuses to sell that one at a decent price, in order to keep their profit margins up - to launch a new one with, say, 20% more GPU power for no real reason other than to satisfy forum dwellers' console wars, but this time at a loss?

If MS had some sort of change of heart in how they manage their profit margins, they would have started discounting the One to salvage some sort of market share. This hasn't happened and I don't see why it would happen next time around. No one has sold a platform at a loss for more than 10 years. And launching a mid-gen refresh is mainly also to keep profit margins fresh.

It makes no sense.

 

[Jay]

may be pc type architecture, but soc's are not standard parts, they are semi custom. Therefore I don't see why they would drop that much more due to economy of scale.

they knowingly released a console with a gpu in same ballpark, thinking that the difference in visuals would be minor therefore ok.
maybe they now think that was a mistake, regardless of how true it may or may not be regarding notable visual difference.
still find it hard to believe they would sell at a loss though

 

[mpg1]

What kind of business sense would that be?

You're expecting a company that knowingly launched a console with 50% less GPU power - and still refuses to sell that one at a decent price, in order to keep their profit margins up - to launch a new one with, say, 20% more GPU power for no real reason other than to satisfy forum dwellers' console wars, but this time at a loss?

If MS had some sort of change of heart in how they manage their profit margins, they would have started discounting the One to salvage some sort of market share. This hasn't happened and I don't see why it would happen next time around. No one has sold a platform at a loss for more than 10 years. And launching a mid-gen refresh is mainly also to keep profit margins fresh.

It makes no sense.

Are they making money on Xbox One hardware? Have they ever really made much money on from the hardware side of Xbox? Microsoft is a software company first and foremost. If they are mainly trying to grow their software platforms and services then they may take a loss on the hardware at first if they think it will grow the install base. They look at the botched Xbox One launch and how many consoles PS4 has sold and the biggest difference is that it's more powerful.

A factored in loss on hardware may be worth it ultimately if they start raking it in on game revenues/digital content/live subscriptions.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sold at a loss, just to win the numbers game? Not going to happen.

They can just match Neo, which is more than enough, and play at the same level this time around.

But matching Neo won't be enough, as there'll be no compelling reason to pick XBN over PS4N. MS need to either compete on price or performance, given everything else is pretty standardised.

 

[pjbliverpool]

But matching Neo won't be enough, as there'll be no compelling reason to pick XBN over PS4N. MS need to either compete on price or performance, given everything else is pretty standardised.

They also lacking a VR solution which I think will be a big decider for a lot of people once the advertising starts becoming more mainstream. In that regard I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see Microsoft team up with Oculus to use that headset as the common PC/XB platform.

 

[London Geezer]

But matching Neo won't be enough, as there'll be no compelling reason to pick XBN over PS4N. MS need to either compete on price or performance, given everything else is pretty standardised.

You're saying that there would be more reason to pick up XBN just because it has 20% more GPU power? Which in today's world is almost completely lost to diminishing returns?
I thought the more compelling reason to pick up one console over an almost identical one was exclusive games, features, general management of the platform (i.e. don't fuck up the reveal!)

 

[Jay]

You're saying that there would be more reason to pick up XBN just because it has 20% more GPU power? Which in today's world is almost completely lost to diminishing returns?
I thought the more compelling reason to pick up one console over an almost identical one was exclusive games, features, general management of the platform (i.e. don't fuck up the reveal!)

I think it's all that but also including power and price now.

 

[mpg1]

may be pc type architecture, but soc's are not standard parts, they are semi custom. Therefore I don't see why they would drop that much more due to economy of scale.

they knowingly released a console with a gpu in same ballpark, thinking that the difference in visuals would be minor therefore ok.
maybe they now think that was a mistake, regardless of how true it may or may not be regarding notable visual difference.
still find it hard to believe they would sell at a loss though

I think it's a bit of both the fact of common pc architecture at economy of scale and the fact that some of the R&D has been offloaded from the console maker... Although that may be more in Sony's case than Microsoft's.

 

[mpg1]

You're saying that there would be more reason to pick up XBN just because it has 20% more GPU power? Which in today's world is almost completely lost to diminishing returns?
I thought the more compelling reason to pick up one console over an almost identical one was exclusive games, features, general management of the platform (i.e. don't fuck up the reveal!)

Where are you coming up with this "20%" number? 10Tflops is 20% more than 4Tflops??

 

[London Geezer]

I might have read my numbers wrong

Then again I don't really believe anyone is launching a 10TF console any time soon, so it doesn't really matter.

 

[turkey]

What kind of business sense would that be?

You're expecting a company that knowingly launched a console with 50% less GPU power - and still refuses to sell that one at a decent price, in order to keep their profit margins up - to launch a new one with, say, 20% more GPU power for no real reason other than to satisfy forum dwellers' console wars, but this time at a loss?

If MS had some sort of change of heart in how they manage their profit margins, they would have started discounting the One to salvage some sort of market share. This hasn't happened and I don't see why it would happen next time around. No one has sold a platform at a loss for more than 10 years. And launching a mid-gen refresh is mainly also to keep profit margins fresh.

It makes no sense.

I suppose there is a case that the price you sell at is the based on the value you perceive your product to be, or flipped the value you wish your product to be perceived as. Reassuringly expensive and all that.

With Sony ahead power wise a slash in price early could look like throwing in the towel and I fewer customers would buy in. Keep your head (price) up and start a frantic software push with many updates and promises of betterment and perhaps folks will have faith and stick around?

the price delta between the systems may be as interesting as the neo marketing positioning.

It may just be a great E3 after all.

 

[London Geezer]

Yeah I definitely saw 6x and 4x, then 10TF and god knows what bunch of numbers and somehow got 20% out of all of that. Sue me!

 

[mpg1]

I think if Microsoft knows that Sony is releasing an iterative type of PS4 console they could possibly catch Sony off guard by releasing a "next-gen" loss leading console. Why would you bother to buy a PS4 neo if only a $100 more you could get a much stronger piece of hardware? Not only that you would technically kick start the "next gen" and Sony would be in an awkward position to respond after just releasing a iterative spec'd console.

Also it would sort of make sense that Microsoft would announce this well before it launches to sway consumers contemplating purchasing a PS4 neo.

 

[Shortbread]

I think if Microsoft knows that Sony is releasing an iterative type of PS4 console they could possibly catch Sony off guard by releasing a "next-gen" loss leading console. Why would you bother to buy a PS4 neo if only a $100 more you could get a much stronger piece of hardware? Not only that you would technically kick start the "next gen" and Sony would be in an awkward position to respond after just releasing a iterative spec'd console.

Also it would sort of make sense that Microsoft would announce this well before it launches to sway consumers contemplating purchasing a PS4 neo.

What would stop Sony from releasing the PS4 Trinity a few months later (after XB10tf)? Then vice versa... repeat...

Yup, the console arms race... winner AMD!

 

[mpg1]

I could also

What would stop Sony from releasing the PS4 Trinity a few months later (after XB10tf)? Then vice versa... repeat...

Yup, the console arms race... winner AMD!

You didn't read the next sentence? "Not only that you would technically kick start the "next gen" and Sony would be in an awkward position to respond after just releasing a iterative spec'd console."

 

[Jay]

What would stop Sony from releasing the PS4 Trinity a few months later (after XB10tf)? Then vice versa... repeat...

Yup, the console arms race... winner AMD!

sounds good to me as long as price is right, and software qa doesn't fall.