Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

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Nividia make a great partner for Nvidia.

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There's an old saying in Microsoft - I know it's in Microsoft, probably in Sony - that says, Nvidia me once, shame on ... shame on you. Nvidia me ... you can't get Nvidia'd again.
That man was hilarious.
 
Nothing nVidia is doable as next gen console. They only take high margin contracts.

My meaning wasn't to say px2 would be the console. My point was that something using similar technology and amount of transistors might be doable for next gen console. Assuming of course good amount of optimization and better manufacturing process to cut down on the power consumption.

If one would base the expectation around 16GB HBM2, 4-8cpu cores and around 8TFLops GPU that might land around 150W... but that could still be too optimistic depending on how 10nm manufacturing technology comes along. The jump from 28nm to 16nm finfet isn't that great and who knows what kind of gains are available when moving to 10nm.
 
nVidia has made GPUs for two consoles, plus they have their own Shield console. Right now, their 200€ Shield K1 tablet is definitely not getting high margins. I doubt that Tegra 3, which was in a huge number of tablets, was a high-margin SoC.

nVidia will do anything that makes them money, as they should.


They should probably do a real console then...that would be cool. I've already expressed interest in how close they are conceivably getting to PS/Xbox specs with these shield devices. Maybe this Px2 thing or whatever?

Would probably make a lot of business sense for them too...maybe. The hardware wouldn't be much of a moneymaker itself, the main advantage is huge brand building (think Xbox for Microsoft), and for Nvidia some kind of synergy with easy PC porting. I wonder if they have the resources.
 
This HBM2 technology is really exciting. Increased bandwidth and less complex memory controllers with lower power consumption. It's like Xmas, Easter and your birthday at the same time.
 
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/kojima-and-ps4-architect-embark-on-world-tour-look/1100-6433950/
Mark Cerny, the PlayStation 4's lead architect, has joined Twitter. And his first tweet was something special. As you can see, Cerny is currently meeting with Metal Gear Solid creator Hideo Kojima and the pair will spend the next 10 days traveling together. According to a tweet from Kojima Productions producer Ken-ichiro Imaizumi, Cerny and Kojima are embarking on a "high-end technology tour," the purpose of which was not disclosed.

Hypothetically, lets say this trip is more so about PS5, rather than Kojima looking for a game engine. I can see Kojima wanting to use todays high-end PCs / game engines on building his new IPs (launching them within 3-4yrs), but also needing future console hardware (PS5) to be able to deliver the fidelity, image quality and performance (4k/30fps/60fps?) on delivering his vision.

The questions is this... what current players (AMD, Nvidia, Intel, PowerVR, etc...) or possible smaller independent chip makers can provide something beyond the current projected chips over the horizon? Could/would/should Sony return to a more custom or exotic design?

I think the most annoying part of this generation was that both PS4/XB1 are so similar in design and performance.
 
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IMO, the next set of consoles will only come from AMD, Nvidia, Intel, or Qualcomm. With an exponential drop off in probability after AMD. One the CPU side, I think it will be x86 although ARM is a possibility (probably for MS and Nintendo), but I would forget MIPS or any other ISA. There's simply too much work, tools, knowledge that can be readily leveraged for development to go with a lesser know ISA. GPU-wise only AMD and NVIDIA have demonstrated console capable performance in actual product. '

I think it would be a big risk to move to another solution.

I agree that PS4/XB1 are so similar, but at the end of the day there's only so much you can in a given amount of die space and at similar cost, so my expectations for next time is that both will be very similar as well.
 
This questions is this... what current players (AMD, Nvidia, Intel, PowerVR, etc...) or possible smaller independent chip makers can provide something beyond the current projected chips over the horizon? Could/would/should Sony return to a more custom or exotic design?
No.

I think the most annoying part of this generation was that both PS4/XB1 are so similar in design and performance.
Annoying? Only regards discussion of tech and nerd interest. In terms of boxes producing games, the similarity of these machines and PCs means Happy Days for developers. It's keeping costs and complexity down and opening up the industry to more players of every size. It also means development of techniques on consoles that can be rolled into PC games, so the markets are more complimentary and helping push each other further. It even put an end to the majority of dumb fanboy talk. Where last gen we'd have 'the power of the Cell' and whatnot regardless what was appearing on screen, now we have two architectures the same and only a little talk about Special ESRAM Bandwidth. Beyond that they're known quantities and we can compare software directly plus whatever little variance between machines, like compute. So such similar machines actually gives us a better basis for comparison as the variables are greatly reduced.
 
No.

Annoying? Only regards discussion of tech and nerd interest. In terms of boxes producing games, the similarity of these machines and PCs means Happy Days for developers. It's keeping costs and complexity down and opening up the industry to more players of every size. It also means development of techniques on consoles that can be rolled into PC games, so the markets are more complimentary and helping push each other further. It even put an end to the majority of dumb fanboy talk. Where last gen we'd have 'the power of the Cell' and whatnot regardless what was appearing on screen, now we have two architectures the same and only a little talk about Special ESRAM Bandwidth. Beyond that they're known quantities and we can compare software directly plus whatever little variance between machines, like compute. So such similar machines actually gives us a better basis for comparison as the variables are greatly reduced.
Agreed. The writing is on the wall for MS and where they are going with their platform. There will be another Xbox sure, but it's certainly going to be running Windows 10. It's either going to be ARM or X86, and with DX12 as a base for games going forward, backwards compatibility should be more straight forward even if they switched GPU architectures.

If Sony runs about their own exotic silicon for next generation they've effectively going to toss away their massive lead. But they'd keep their client base locked in if next generation was fully backwards compatible.
 

In away this saddens me. No more risk takers.

Annoying? Only regards discussion of tech and nerd interest.

Yes, but it made things more interesting. The pixel counting debate(s) got real old, real thin, really quickly. What's next for console gaming? Counting vegetation plants on proving the more robust system?

FYI: I'm not advocating a truly exotic hardware design for PS5/XBRedux... but something that wasn't so off-the-shelf and could match (visually and performance wise) a mid-end PC for about 2-3yrs.
 
If Sony runs about their own exotic silicon for next generation they've effectively going to toss away their massive lead. But they'd keep their client base locked in if next generation was fully backwards compatible.

Even if Sony's next platform was fully capable of being backwards compatible... they wouldn't do it (not immediately anyhow). Too much money being made on remakes and PS+. Anyhow, Sony massive lead isn't just based on hardware alone... Sony aces will always be their first party IPs.
 
Too much money being made on remakes and PS+
I agree with this POV on the topic of remasters. When it comes to the economics it doesn't always make sense.

Sony massive lead isn't just based on hardware alone...

Sony's massive lead is very much a function of the times (internet/social media) and Microsoft's inability to see how that would impact their business. Marketing and messaging was terrible out of the gates, poor hardware, word spreads quickly. The console is targeted at a younger audience, and those younger audiences are well informed of their product purchases well before they step into the store.
Not to mention the social aspect where you buy what your friends buy, and we can see why this gap in units sold continues to grow.

If next gen started with Xbox being fully backwards compatible and PS5 not. I'd be shocked if there wouldn't be similar backlash. #4thePlayers would be the most common hashtag I believe.

People rip on MS a lot, but to say MS doesn't learn quickly for a company the size that MS is would be naive. Where it's basically written in stone that PS4 will dominate this generation, and MS is likely conceded; most people should have realized by now that the plays that Microsoft is making today with Xbox One is to build both reputation, feature sets and services for next generation. It's the next battleground and MS has more than enough cash to afford to be in this position while positioning themselves for the next.
 
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In away this saddens me. No more risk takers.
It's a brutal space to play in, and Sony has lost a lot of the in-house expertise and tech parity needed.
There's just so much that you have to get down foundationally at this level of manufacturing, integration, design, and software complexity. If something is non-standard enough to not use the foundation, it better have the full effort to rebuild the whole stack.
More exotic stuff could be done under the hood, if it can leverage the standard hardware around it. Possibly if the process nodes stagnate even more, the pressure will be stronger.
Interposer and other packaging tech may give the option for more heterogeneous integration, although integrating it as seamlessly as possible will likely be a prime concern.

What's next for console gaming?
1080P and 60 FPS.
(edit: Unless you want to be more cinematic.)
 
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In away this saddens me. No more risk takers.



Yes, but it made things more interesting. The pixel counting debate(s) got real old, real thin, really quickly. What's next for console gaming? Counting vegetation plants on proving the more robust system?

FYI: I'm not advocating a truly exotic hardware design for PS5/XBRedux... but something that wasn't so off-the-shelf and could match (visually and performance wise) a mid-end PC for about 2-3yrs.

This era is finished. It is not economically viable for platform holder... PS5 will be a console with a x86 CPU probably a new AMD APU..
 
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This era is finished. It is not economically viable for platform holder l... PS5 will be a console with a x86 CPU probably a new AMD APU..

Nothing against AMD, but I hope someone else (Nvidia or even Intel) would be present in one of the next-generation consoles.
 
Nothing against AMD, but I hope someone else (Nvidia or even Intel) would be present in one of the next-generation consoles.
NVIDIA has no x86 and I doubt Intel can really challenge AMD on GPU front given that AMD can finally move to competitive node (to add to that, Intel hasn't been particularly vocal about heterogeneous computing either, has it?)
 
I doubt Intel can really challenge AMD on GPU front given that AMD can finally move to competitive node

Maybe it's more a question of whether Intel finds it worth the time to design something of use to high end gamers & license it out at a reasonable price when they practically own a significant chunk of the PC market with just IGP and their own lucrative prices. :p
 
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