Pachter's 2008 hardware sales forecast

[D3B]

So here is what he thinks will happen.

“I expect US and European Wii sales of 15 million units this year, expect sales of 360 to be 6.8 million, and expect sales of PS3 to be 10.3 million,” he said. “I expect Japanese sales of 3.5 million Wiis, 2.8 million PS3 and 300,000 Xbox 360s.”

http://www.videogaming247.com/2008/...er-gives-global-2008-hardware-sales-forecast/

Good numbers for PS3:smile:

 

[assen]

He expects sales of 360 to actually drop this year, at (virtually certainly) a new, mainstream price points, with GTA, three Guitar Hero games and countless other multiplatform games on the way? Hmmmm.

 

[AlNom]

He expects sales of 360 to actually drop this year, at (virtually certainly) a new, mainstream price points, with GTA, three Guitar Hero games and countless other multiplatform games on the way? Hmmmm.

Not to mention that game called Gears of War 2...

 

[Cheezdoodles]

I dont think its so certain that the Xbox 360 plattform will grow much, i doubt GeoW 2 will get more people to buy a console than GeoW1 did. The PS3 on the other hand seems to be the new "it" item with virtually anybody i know thats between 20-30 years old and isn't a wii fan.

Even more so, peoples percieved value of the PS3 seems much higher than Xbox 360 right now, and for all games the Xbox 360 might have coming this season, the PS3 has one aswell.

Ofcourse this evidence doesn't mean anything, but i think more and more people are drawn to the PS3 because its seems like the best deal right now, it has bluray, its more powerful, and you get something that costed $600 for $400 now, with 2 games.


(Oh and the PS3's graphical powers are really starting to pay off, there is a big Sony store in the most bizzy shopping street in Oslo (Karl Johan) with a 100" 1080p Plasma turned to the window with a PS3 hooked up showing GT5P demos, virtually every male between 14-30 stops up to look, atleast for a second, some see an entire demo lap. Some see more. Great commercial, and cheap.)

 

[djskribbles]

^ +1.

i don't know if it was the fact that Blu-Ray beat HD-DVD, but lately, it seems like PS3 sales have gone up (with exception to Japan) while interest in the 360 has definitely dropped (just from what i've noticed of course). just going by what i've seen personally, and what i've read around the net, specifically at neogaf (they have a "US Retail Musings thread" every now and then). all sales analysts seem to agree, too.

 

[RobertR1]

The PS3 is coming into it's own. MS needs to get off their ass and market their product. They've gotten away with good sales the past couple of years by being lazy on the marketing side but that'll hurt bad. However, patcher is an idiiot and I don't put any stock into any of his numbers.

 

[AlphaWolf]

However, patcher is an idiiot and I don't put any stock into any of his numbers.

All you have to do is look at some of his past predictions.

In 2010, Sony's going to have 55 per cent, Microsoft's going to have 35 per cent and Nintendo 10 per cent, with all three of those having plus or minus five per cent.

I'd say that seems unlikely at this point.

I don't think there are four million people in the world who really want to play online games every month. World of Warcraft is such an exception. I frankly think it's the buzz factor, and eventually it will come back to the mean, maybe a million subscribers.

That's about as wrong as you can be right there. WoW has continued to grow into more than 10 million playing now.

 

[betan]

Pachter is not a stupid guy, but he doesn't hide the fact that his numbers are originating from his back part.

I personally find Ostepop's "PS3 support" much more interesting than Pachter's predictions.

 

[dobwal]

I think any forecast right now means very little. Given that both the PS3 and 360 has shown they can create momentum when dropping the retail price and unknown price flexibility of MS and Sony's consoles, I doubt you can accurately forecast 08.

Literally noone was predicting 80K months in the US for the PS3 even though the $599 price point was known months before release. Noone was predicting Wii's 20 mil year in 07 back in 06. If MS was to say back in 05 that the 360 would still be $350 in 08 with a price drop not showing up for 23 months, how many analyst would be touting 18 million estimates for the first two years.

Its hard to predict the 360 sales over the next years because its dependent on what MS does in terms of price cutting. But there is literally no historical data to base any projections. The data from xbox1 is useless as MS's strategy this generation has been totally opposite than last generation.

The PS3 is hard to predict as we don't know if Sony will employ as an aggressive price cutting strategy as it did last year. Will it go conservative since BluRay is now the defacto standard for HD and last year price cutting strategy to push sales has cost billions of dollars limiting Sony's ability to further price cut at the same rate?

The only easy prediction for sales over the next year lies with the Wii. With demand still outstripping supply, Nintendo is going to move little on price and if faced with greater competition for the PS360 can simply reduce price dive deeper into the mainstream market to maintain enough demand to eat through the current production rate of the Wii..

Has any of these analysts back in late 05 and late 06 given estimates that proved to be close to reality. I know most aren't even that great even estimating sales from the month before nevermind a future looking estimate.

 

[djskribbles]

Pachter is not a stupid guy, but he doesn't hide the fact that his numbers are originating from his back part.

I personally find Ostepop's "PS3 support" much more interesting than Pachter's predictions. :)

same here. :smile:

 

[Rangers]

I dont think its so certain that the Xbox 360 plattform will grow much, i doubt GeoW 2 will get more people to buy a console than GeoW1 did. The PS3 on the other hand seems to be the new "it" item with virtually anybody i know thats between 20-30 years old and isn't a wii fan.

Even more so, peoples percieved value of the PS3 seems much higher than Xbox 360 right now, and for all games the Xbox 360 might have coming this season, the PS3 has one aswell.

Ofcourse this evidence doesn't mean anything, but i think more and more people are drawn to the PS3 because its seems like the best deal right now, it has bluray, its more powerful, and you get something that costed $600 for $400 now, with 2 games.


(Oh and the PS3's graphical powers are really starting to pay off, there is a big Sony store in the most bizzy shopping street in Oslo (Karl Johan) with a 100" 1080p Plasma turned to the window with a PS3 hooked up showing GT5P demos, virtually every male between 14-30 stops up to look, atleast for a second, some see an entire demo lap. Some see more. Great commercial, and cheap.)

You can flip it though. Why is PS3 with 1/3 price cut, more reliable hardware, Blu Ray, a overpriced 360, and a far more attractive future lineup, not too mention PS2's legacy, struggling so much still?

I mean breaking it down, PS3 should be utterly destroying 360..

Anyways yeah, I think 6.8 is pretty darn low for 360 in 08, Pachter seems to really have it out for 360 but that kind of stretches credibility to make his point, we're likely to get a big price cut this year and he expects sales to fall? PS3 seems to be doing very well in Europe but I expect 360 to pull back into the lead in USA, possibly as early as this March NPD.

But even if you take these results at face value, it's a pretty good result for ms. It would mean they would end 2008 still the worldwide sales leader. When you look at the shipments, I expect 360 to end up doubling Xbox 1 WW.

Thinking like this:

12/31/07=17.7m
08=9m (1.5 1Q, 1.5 2Q, 1.5 3Q, 4.5 4Q) =~27m cumulative
09=9m=~36m cumulative
10=9m?~45m cumulative
11+= ~5m= 50m cumulative

Xbox 1= 25 m shipped lifetime.

I think these projections are pretty conservative.

 

[thatdude90210]

Pachter's always a little optimistic when it comes to Sony. In Japan, after 3 months in 2008, the PS3 is already over 700k behind the Wii for the year, so Pachter is expecting it to match the Wii for the rest of the year? Right... Gaf is having a good laugh.

 

[Rangers]

Pachter's always a little optimistic when it comes to Sony. In Japan, after 3 months in 2008, the PS3 is already over 700k behind the Wii for the year, so Pachter is expecting it to match the Wii for the rest of the year? Right... Gaf is having a good laugh.

Yeah he doesn't seem to put a whole lot of thought into things sometimes considering it's his business. Sad when amateur message board gurus can point out obvious mistakes he makes.

 

[Tap In]

yea, ok

patcher needs to lay off the pipe

 

[PARANOiA]

It's strange how analysts are still being so conservative with their Wii estimates.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

It's strange how analysts are still being so conservative with their Wii estimates.

Really?

Strange as in you can't find a logical explanation?

Because I can.

I think the reasoning is fairly obvious. But then again, I'm an analyst myself (not in this industry) so what might seem obvious to me might seem off the wall to others.

The only issue I have with his claims is that he's dealing with two unknown factors, both of which are keystones to the analysis.

That is the price point of both the 360 and the Wii.

The price point of the PS3 can be reasonably estimated, IMO.

The price point of both the 360 and the Wii cannot be, because of the market position and financial health of both MS and Nintendo.

Is he making these forecasts predicted no price drop on the Wii and a $50 price reduction on the 360?

Both Nintendo and MS have the ability to tremendously undercut the PS3. Working in concert, they could bury they PS3 whenever they wanted to, providing (of course) that they were able to work together in price fixing (OMG! Illegal!)

Nintendo has the ability because they've been profitable from the start and have the awesome ability to now sell their product at ZERO profit.

MS has the ability because they've always had it, and can sustain losses if need be.

If the projection is that the Wii continues to sell at its current price because of supply problems, and the 360 isn't going to significantly reduce it's price, then the prediction has some validity. (In terms of being a valid prediction, not in terms of being absolutely correct.)

But if MS were to slash their prices $100 across the board, and Nintendo were to slash their price $50 (and maybe reduce the price of their peripherals a bit), this analysis goes out the window because the basic assumptions would no longer be correct.

Analysis is always only as accurate as the information that is available at the time of the analysis.

The most important thing to gain from this is that MS needs to move on the 360 pricing and also that the Wii is backing up to the point where they are going to have to move their pricing at some point.

 

[zed]

But even if you take these results at face value, it's a pretty good result for ms. It would mean they would end 2008 still the worldwide sales leader.

u might wanna rethink that, the wii had sold a few million more the the xb360 at the end of last year, even with GTA4 the xb360 is not gonna make up that difference.
im sticking by my prediction at the end of the cycle, wii/ps3 100million, xb360 50million.
the end of this year it'll be close (within 10%) between the xb360+ps3.

It's strange how analysts are still being so conservative with their Wii estimates.

i find the wii numbers surprisingly low, NPD +japan == 800k a month, yet nintendo say theyre making 1.8million, where are they all going? sure a lots going to europe but surely not more than the US+japan combined

 

[Readykilowatt]

Patcher (like all analysts) are no different from this guy. If you know the real reason why analysts exist, you'd stop posting information from them.

 

[Zassk]

The PS3 is doing terrific and isn't going to slow down, but all available evidence shows that the 360 had a better Q1 than last year - worldwide. Regardless of the competition outperforming them, I find it questionable to forecast that the 360 will suddenly fall below last year's sales after three strong months.

 

[assen]

...lots of positive stuff about the PS3...

I'm not disputing his PS3 numbers, or that the PS3 is gaining momentum. What I'm saying is that at $200 and versions of all the mass-market multiplatform titles like GH and Madden and COD, the 360 is enteringthe PS2 territory. PS3 and Xbox 360 sales are not complementory, every customer buys either one or the other; I expect the PS3 will sell this year to many 360 owners, while the 360 will sell to many impulse buyers who only had a PS2 or a PC at home so far.