whql said:
You not having faith doesn't make it any more or less possible.
Here, I'll even go out on a limb and explain what I'm thinking. Microsoft views Sony as a distruptive force in the forthcoming connected home, thus giving birth to XBox. We know from comments by people like Andy Grove and Gabe Newell that the above is true, that Microsoft fears the livingroom being connected by electronics companies utilizing competing OS's - such as the Panasonic/Sony Linux derivative or whatever. Microsoft think's XBox will enter them into this marketplace using the same trojan horse as Sony - the game console. So, on some level - XBox is pretty important and it's obvious that Microsoft wants to kill off PlayStation. To do this next generation you need to beat two things:
- PlayStations/Sony's Hype.
- Cell Architecture.
You won't outright beat Sony's Hype, this is a joke to even ponder. So, you need to beat
Cell - which is basically a silicon embodiment of the above pervasive computing paradigm. I'm a big supporter of
Cell, this is true, but then learn from me (my perception, understanding, thoughts) and apply it to this situation with your ideologies as a counter-balance. And as "Cell-believer" I was 'concerned' about only one obstacle this entire time - nVidia. Which I'll get into now:
Regardless of how
Cell turns out, one thing can be inferred about the architecture and more specifically the IC used in PS3. STI is a venerable lithography and process powerhouse, perhaps even surpassing Intel as second to none. To beat
Cell, you need to capitalize on lithography and push it to it's very limits - for I don't believe simple architectural differences/routine optimizations will cut it.
We're nearing a point as outlined in Suzuoki's
Cell patent for SCE (and can be seen in the NV3x architecture) where graphic processing is becoming computationally limited and it's performance is limited by logic, thus pushing the advancement burden back to Moore's Law rather than Bandwidth or other such barriers. The future is an advancement following NV3x's direction, or more like
Cell - where you have almost full computational flexibility threw the pipeline except where the task is excessively iterative and dedicated logic is the way to go.
To cause a 'borderline performance revolution' with type of architecture relies on bleeding-edge lithography and it requires the design team to push the process to the edge and beyond into the realm of poor-yields with the understanding that future lithography will bring the yields and costs under control. It requires massive investment like STI is doing ($8Billion in total) and it requires technologies like SOI/SS, Low-K, 65/45nm and lower lithography and other such advancements that are pushed hard.
When I saw IBM and nVidia team up and basically gain access to STI's advancements combined with some comments I heard a while back from a little bird - I thought it was over. nVidia has the balls to push and stick with it. When 3dfx was in the corner touching itself with .25um, nVidia was on Cu utilizing 180nm and utterly destroying 3dfx in everyway, performance, features, per IC cost, yields.. it goes on and on.
And I see the same now. While nVidia is testing with 130nm Low-K dielectrics, ATI is off pissing in the wind on a 150nm process. Sure, nVidia had problems this time, but it's the exception. What's ATI going to do when nVidia is utilizing a derivative of STI/AMD's 10S or 11S (11S is Cell's 65nm process slated for 2H 2004/1H 2005 production) process at IBM? Have you fanpeople tell us that SOI isn't necessary? That the thermal or 30% performance increase seen on Power4 isn't that big of a deal? That TSMC's sub-par roadmap and execution of <100nm is adequate? Don't even get me started on UMC, are they serious in going alone for 90nm and below then everyone is concentrating their R&D? HA! Give me a break.
Today is the first day I can say that Sony will be alright, that if I was Okamoto or Ken, I'd be happy as a pig in shit.
PS. Check out my post here:
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7188
Please note the timeline and make note of IBM's involvement and that SCE/Toshiba are currently in production of the EE+GS@nm and have been producing the GS (eDRAM+logic) at 130nm since 2001.