Let's put some numbers together, shall we? Let's completly strawman the shit ouf of this.
Coinbase ETH Global Hashrate chart
Set the chart start date to September 17th 2020; the release date of the RTX 3080. You should find the global hashrate for ETH is 266.878 TH/s. As of the date I'm writing this post (June 11th 2021) the global hash rate I see as 637.818 TH/s. Let's make it even a more worst case for my argument, let's instead use the absolute highest value on the chart: 676.820 TH/s on May 21st of 2021.
Beginning value, before any 30xx series GPUs were in the public's hands:
266.878 TH/s
Peak value, after almost precisely eight months of 30xx series GPU sales:
676.820 TH/s
A total of
409.942 TH/s of compute was added to mining ETH in a time span of near-exactly eight months.
Let's also assume the absolutely worst case, that literally EVERY GPU added to mining ETH was an NVIDIA Ampere and not AMD. Let's then contrive the argument even moreso, we'll use the slowest mining Ampere: the RTX 3060 (even though it wasn't actually available the whole time.) Why are we doing this? Because it will result in the most video cards needing to be sold in order to make the argument most favorable to a statement of "miners are buying all the cards!!" According to
Mistake Enables Full GeForce RTX 3060 ETH Mining - Over 50 MH/s - Legit Reviews Getting Over 50 MH/s on the GeForce RTX 3060 we could see around 42MH/s without any tuning. To be the most gracious to my opponent's argument, we will completely ignore the tuning potential for both power efficiency and mining rate increases that most miners are likely to deploy.
Ok, so to get 409.942 TH/s of mining out of only 3060 cards mining at only a 42 MH/s rate, we will need just shy of ten million (9,760,524) cards doing the mining! Holy shit, ten million cards!
Getting precise unit shipment numbers of each dGPU is really difficult because nobody truly publishes precise numbers. What we must do is tease the numbers apart from various published market watch research groups, like this one:
GPU shipments soar in Q1 year-over-year | Jon Peddie Research
What does that article tell us?
- Direct quote from the article: According to a new research report from the analyst firm Jon Peddie Research, the growth of the PC-based Graphics Processor Units (GPU) market reached 119 million units in Q1'21
- Of that 119 million, 15.17% of all shipped GPUs came from NVIDIA. 119,000,000 * 0.1517 == 18 million NV GPUs shipped in the first quarter of this year.
- You'll notice we also have quarterly sales data posted which goes back Q4'20, and the article notes NVIDIA's shipments in Q1 were 3.9% higher than last quarter. 18,000,000 / 1.039 == 17.4 million NV GPUs shipped in Q4 which covers the initial 30xx series launch.
A few things we don't have:
- No data on Q2'21 sales, which is the quarter ending in about 19 days. We can reasonably extrapolate Q2 sales will be at least equal to Q1 given the trendline, albeit we aren't done with the quarter just yet. Roughly we're about 5/6ths (83.3%) of the way through Q2, so let's swag 18,000,000 * 0.83 == about 15MM NV GPUs have probably shipped by this point.
- An argument could be made that shipped GPUs are not directly linked to sold AIB cards inside the same timeframe, because there is time neded to glue it all together. What that really means is we'd have to calculate GPUs shipped even before Q4'20 and have to figure out how to subtract it from Q2'21. I'm not sure it's going to materially alter the outcome here and we have literally no data to help create an estimate. The shift might affect the numbers by the couple-hundred-thousands, but isn't going to materially move the needle.
- There is no published comprehensive sub-breakdown of which of those shipped 50 million GPU's were 3080's, or 3070's, or 2080's, or 1660's, or 730's, or whatever. What about Quadro too?
We could try to extrapolate percentages of shipments correlated to the sold unit numbers we see on eBay as tracked by Tom's Hardware
GPU Pricing Index: Tracking Graphics Cards Sold on eBay | Tom's Hardware (tomshardware.com). A reasoned argument could be made of total available cards getting scalped on eBay will be correlated to the availability of those cards in the retail sales channel. Funny enough, 3060's make up roughly 20% of the 3000-series cards sold on eBay. Not really sure what that tells us, the 20% number is funny as you'll see below...
What are we left with here?
The ETH rate increased by 409TH/s since September the 17th. If every card added to ETH mining was
only NVIDIA Ampere (it wasn't), and was
only the slowest-mining Ampere model without any tuning at all (it wasn't), we'd only need to consume 20% of the total GPUs shipped by NV in the last two quarters and the portion of this quarter
(they didn't.)
What did we learn?
Miners aren't ruining the GPU economy. Let's stop perpetuating the bullshit already.