NVIDIA shows signs ... [2008 - 2017]

[dbz]

Do you have an updated chart that includes the 2014 numbers?

No problem. The graph is annotated with the launch dates by quarter of some of the major SKUs, which I added as requested on another forum - hopefully you can navigate past the busyness as I forgot to save a copy before I started adding the annotations

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

No problem. The graph is annotated with the launch dates by quarter of some of the major SKUs, which I added as requested on another forum - hopefully you can navigate past the busyness as I forgot to save a copy before I started adding the annotations

Thanks. I love the detail you added.

 

[swaaye]

That looks terrible for AMD.

 

[lanek]

That looks terrible for AMD.

Not so much, the market share jump down specially on Q3 -Q4 2014... when you have the 970-980 and then 960 who have been on the market, when, well, AMD have still not release their gpu's .. ( thats clearly their error ).

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

Not so much, the market share jump down specially on Q3 -Q4 2014... when you have the 970-980 and then 960 who have been on the market, when, well, AMD have still not release their gpu's .. ( thats clearly their error ).

Actually it is terrible for AMD. In just two quarters the spread went from 24.1% in Nvidia's favor to 52% in Nvidia's favor. That spread will also increase more in Nvidia's favor this current quarter with the 960 being available the whole quarter and also because AMD has stopped shipping to the channel for the last seven weeks of the quarter because of inventory issues. We may even see an 80/20 split in 2015Q1 with Nvidia having a 60% advantage.

Note that the largest spread that ever occurred since 2003 was only 38% in 2009Q1.

AMD releasing the 300 series may stop the bleeding but I doubt it will make much of a difference in market share since all but the high end are rebrands. Nvidia will probably be releasing the rest of the 900 series when AMD releases the 300 series to counter it.

 

[eastmen]

welp NVidia is announcing a tv and game console

NVidia shield for your tv. Basicly a valve steam link / roku / fire tv. (personal aside I don't care for the look and the fact that its kind of a wedge shape) 4k 10bit 60 hz video voice search and google tv. It runs on the tegra x1

I have a feeling that the shield is all 3 of the things he is going to announce

 

[dbz]

AMD releasing the 300 series may stop the bleeding but I doubt it will make much of a difference in market share since all but the high end are rebrands. Nvidia will probably be releasing the rest of the 900 series when AMD releases the 300 series to counter it.

I'm inclined to agree. Historically, it is very easy to shed market share but very difficult to claw it back. The 300 series might arrest the freefall, but if it consists of primarily rebrands it might not have that much of an impact. The Fiji flagship might be worth something as the halo product, but I'm picking that Nvidia's GM 200 might counter that. AMD don't seem to have anything of note for the performance/enthusiast discrete mobile space either - at least not in the 970M/980M class, so it might be a case of OEM's continuing to highlight the Nvidia brand there.
With AMD's Mantle getting an unceremonious bullet to the back of the head, their PR/marketing has one less feature to tout. DirectX 12 (purely marketing/PR for the foreseeable future) will probably be a wash once both camps gets their drivers sorted, which leaves FreeSync I guess as their ace in the hole, so that had better deliver in spades (to keep the metaphor going) in relation to G-Sync and hope OEM/ODM's keep pricing realistic for what should be a very minimal increase in T-CON material cost.

My $0.02

 

[eastmen]

if they have stacked ram in 2015 vs NVidia in 2016 that could hurt NVidia a lot , esp if both oculus and valve release their units in 2015.

 

[silent_guy]

if they have stacked ram in 2015 vs NVidia in 2016 that could hurt NVidia a lot , esp if both oculus and valve release their units in 2015.

What does stacked RAM have to do with Oculus?

 

[3dilettante]

That and it's just one technical factor out of many technical and non-technical ones. These days success comes from a full-court press across many dimensions. That graph should be strong evidence that years of shifting leadership through the lens of any single subset of product competitiveness shows limited impact. One of the few major factors that seems to have some correlation is serious failings in execution, although the discussion of the latest massive shift in numbers probably belongs in somebody else's gloom thread.

 

[swaaye]

Yeah the most interesting point to me is the tiny bump of the 4850/4870 era. And that was a period of intense price war with an AMD fan favorite forcing NV to drop prices aggressively.

I don't understand why NV had a large market share drop after the launch of the GF6800. Belayed fallout post Geforce FX?

It's interesting that AMD is hurting that bad today. They have solid products selling at good prices. 960-980 must have incredible customer mind share.

 

[dbz]

I don't understand why NV had a large market share drop after the launch of the GF6800. Belayed fallout post Geforce FX?

ATI were quicker to market with PCI-E interface variants. A lot of Nvidia's production was still geared towards AGP cards, and ATI picked up sizeable OEM orders on the back of this. Allied to this was ATI's dominant mobile market ( they owned better than 70% of the market at the time) - cards such as the Mobility Radeon 9600 Pro, 9700, 9800, and X600 dominated OEM contracts at the time. The large swings are almost certainly linked to large OEM contracts, and can say as much about the absence of hardware from one vendor as it does about the SKUs in play.

It's interesting that AMD is hurting that bad today. They have solid products selling at good prices. 960-980 must have incredible customer mind share.

Top of the mind marketing. The same reason why Intel ( who often only contribute the CPU and chipset) are often better known than the OEM/ODM machine vendors themselves. Nvidia spent some considerable time cultivating an ethos of community (for wont of a better word) amongst their buying public. ATI had much the same following in hardware but didn't look much beyond - into utilities, gaming forums, sponsorship etc. - and what they had seemed to be largely wiped away after AMD subsumed the company.

Much like the Nvidia dip in Q3 2004 - Q2 2005, I think AMD's present market share is a mixture of new arrivals from Nvidia, and a lack of the same from AMD. Price cutting might tempt some DIYers (although there are negative connotations associated with too many price cuts), but it's the OEMs that cause the real movement, and nothing drives OEM contracts like new product and new bullet points.

 

[silent_guy]

One of the striking parts of the AMD and NVidia conference calls this quarter was wrt OEMs: AMD said they were very much dependent on OEMs while NVidia said that their OEM business had descendent rapidly over the last few years to some very low percent because integrated graphics are good enough for business PCs.
That said: AMD didn't split up between CPU and GPU in that discussion, so it's hard to say if they see a similar trend for GPUs only.

 

[dbz]

One of the striking parts of the AMD and NVidia conference calls this quarter was wrt OEMs: AMD said they were very much dependent on OEMs while NVidia said that their OEM business had descendent rapidly over the last few years to some very low percent because integrated graphics are good enough for business PCs.

Hard to quantify overall. What isn't hard to quantify is a discrete graphics area where retail plays no part. Mobile. Leaving aside the boutique low volume market where Nvidia seems to have a stranglehold, the high volume vendors still look one-sided
Hewlett Packard only offer Nvidia GPUs
Dell's lineup is almost exclusively Nvidia ( the M295X features on a single Alienware 15 model, and is jokingly a $200 upgrade over the faster 970M on a second)
Lenovo's lineup seems entirely Nvidia based
Asus's lineup also seems entirely Nvidia based
Acer has a pretty good split between AMD and Nvidia
Toshiba's lines are split between AMD (Satellite) and Nvidia (Qosmio gaming and Tecra - GeForce and Quadro)

Of the other vendors with significant market penetration, Samsung doesn't seem to offer discrete graphics, and Apple only has discrete on the MBP Retina (Nvidia 750M)

Four of the top seven laptop vendors are Nvidia exclusive. I don't how the split for discrete graphics equipped machines works out, but I assume it still has significance.

 

[Alexko]

One of the striking parts of the AMD and NVidia conference calls this quarter was wrt OEMs: AMD said they were very much dependent on OEMs while NVidia said that their OEM business had descendent rapidly over the last few years to some very low percent because integrated graphics are good enough for business PCs.
That said: AMD didn't split up between CPU and GPU in that discussion, so it's hard to say if they see a similar trend for GPUs only.

Were they talking about the same thing? Overall, OEMs are very important because they make up 99.99% of mobile sales. If you restrict the discussion to desktop parts, then I imagine they matter much less, and that may well be true for both IHVs.

 

[silent_guy]

Were they talking about the same thing? Overall, OEMs are very important because they make up 99.99% of mobile sales. If you restrict the discussion to desktop parts, then I imagine they matter much less, and that may well be true for both IHVs.

Your guess is as good as mine. High end mobile discrete GPUs have been going up, but I doubt that the volumes are anywhere close of desktop discrete. It also depends if there were talking market share in unit % vs. revenue %. I'm guessing it's the latter, in which case it will be even more skewed towards desktop discrete: they should have better margins than OEM parts.
If those assumptions are true, then whether or not mobile is included in the discussion about OEM vs retail share shouldn't make a major difference.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Were they talking about the same thing? Overall, OEMs are very important because they make up 99.99% of mobile sales. If you restrict the discussion to desktop parts, then I imagine they matter much less, and that may well be true for both IHVs.

Sure, but that's where Intel's integrated graphics are going to dominate the space. It's good enough for the largest volume of mobile sales (business). Very few of those are likely to feature anything from Nvidia. There will be models offered with Nvidia discrete offerings, but the volume will almost all be in integrated graphics.

And in the consumer market, it's still going to be dominated by Intel just because it's good enough for the majority of users.

Regards,
SB

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

Opps, Nvidia did not come crashing down. How did that happen? Charlie of SemiAccurate said it would be so.

Analysis: How is Nvidia going to beat their numbers this quarter?
Updated: SemiAccurate told you weeks ago, but lets connect the dots anyway
May 7, 2014 by Charlie Demerjian

There has been a lot of talk lately about Nvidia and beating their numbers, it came as a shock to some but not SemiAccurate readers. The short versions is that we told you exactly how they would blow out this and the next few quarters before it all comes crashing down. Since a few of you seem to have missed the connection, let us draw it out for you in detail.

http://semiaccurate.com/2014/05/07/nvidia-going-beat-numbers-quarter/

Article in May was for FY2015 Q1. So the next few quarters would be FY2015 Q2 and Q3.

So the crashing quarter would be the just completed FY2015 Q4.

Nvidia Jumps 4%: FYQ4 Beats, Q1 Rev View Beats

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...-q1-rev-view-beats/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

I feel sorry for anyone who purchased that article from Charlie.

 

[dbz]

I feel sorry for anyone who purchased that article from Charlie.

I think I prefer his free analysis - much more entertaining....it is after all a satire site isn't it?

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

I think I prefer his free analysis - much more entertaining....it is after all a satire site isn't it?

I would ask the question in a more general sense. Will GPUs exist in 5 years. The answer there would be no.

-Charlie

Well that post was dated 5-11-2010 so we have a couple more months to see if Charlie's prediction of no Discrete GPUs comes true.