Fuad like so many others seems to me to be confused by what drives a stock price. Too often in tech/gaming journalism the stock price is used as some sort of bizarre proxy for product merit.
X company must rock or suck, because their stock price is up or down... And then in some quasi-deluded state of enlightenment, folk like Fuad speak up against that madness (because it certainly is madness), but make the mistake of simply writing off Wall Street as "irrational." They in fact justify the mentality of the price-to-merit fallacy, simply they claim that the execution is warped.
I'm not saying Wall Street can't be irrational in its own terms, but why in the world would his eventuality of NVidia lowering prices to sell cards cause investors to sleep any better at night? On the contrary, that's the very nightmare scenario every NVidia investor has been fearing... because believe me when I say that the institutions invested in NVidia care about their gross margins above all else. And why shouldn't they? Investors are in it for the company that will give them a return on investment, not esoteric reasons centering around who's got a novel architecture.
This paragraph more clearly than any states the condition of his world-view:
At the same time Intel and ATI are doing great, but AMD is down to $5.36 or 1.47 percent today and Intel is down 1.39 percent and this descent has been going on for days. Intel has never been better and AMD is supposed to be fine, at least with its GPU side.
What does he take 'great' to mean? Nice product offerings? He needs to start thinking like someone with money on the line.
Intel's quarterly report will be on July 15th, and AMD's will be on July 17th. People are extremely nervous about the inflationary environment in the US right now, and the hit to high-tech discretionary spending that might take. There's going to be a lot of anxiety leading up to that week of reporting (and probably downside in these stocks) - but whatever ends up being the revealed "trend" at that time, expect it to effect all three of the stocks we're talking about here.
Also isnt 4850 using the same PCB as the 3850? I doubt x is cheaper argument will fly in either direction here. The only difference is one of them is priced $30 lower .. so I guess the squeeze (for further price cuts) is on Nvidia.