NVIDIA shows signs ... [2008 - 2017]

[Razor1]

wow that blew away their estimates!

 

[DavidGraham]

With these results, it wouldn't be surprising for their market share to sky rocket this quarter.
Also, it's a bit early to tell, but it would appear the market is expanding.

 

[Erinyes]

It's one thing for a developing market (deep learning) to go up 60% quarter over quarter from $151M to $240M, but their gaming revenue alone also went up 60% from $781M to $1244M. For a mature market, that's absolutely stunning.

This increase is larger than the total AMD computing and graphics BU revenue of $472M.

Agreed..the increase in gaming was the most surprising. I was expecting a large increase in Datacenter and Tegra..but over a billion in gaming gpus is phenomenal.

With these results, it wouldn't be surprising for their market share to sky rocket this quarter.
Also, it's a bit early to tell, but it would appear the market is expanding.

Agreed..unless AMD managed to ship a LOT of Polaris chips..NV definitely took marketshare.

I think a part of it was also latent demand due to 28nm stagnating for so long. We basically have had no new high end GPUs since early 2015. However, they're projecting $2.1B for the next quarter so it probably is expanding. The results for Q1'17 (calendar) will be interesting.

 

[manux]

I read article after latest amd results that amd was buying market share and hence the pretty poor financial result. amd might have good chunk of the market.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

http://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-third-quarter-fiscal-2017

Really good results. I do wonder whether the Q3 2017 gaming results includes some revenue from the Nintendo Switch deal. Going to be very interesting to see the Mercury and JP market reports as well as Nvidia's Q4 results.

They certainly stand to gain some marketshare, but it's uncertain how much. For example, Q2 2017 had a nice YoY increase in revenue (18.3%) but Nvidia lost marketshare (from 81.9% down to 70% YoY for AIB shipments) for that quarter. Revenue increase of 63.4% YoY should produce some nice marketshare gains regardless, however. The only potential fly in the ointment is how much, if any, of that is due to the Nintendo Switch deal. So, yeah, market reports from Mercury and JP will be interesting.

About the only blemish (and it's minor) is a slight drop in OEM and IP revenue (YoY).

Regards,
SB

 

[xpea]

delete please (double post)

 

[xpea]

guidance for next quarter is $2.1 billion but I believe they will go above $2.2B with xmas period and full tilt production for Switch. With underestimated guidance they can announce very positive results and keep the momentum. $100 per share and >50B market cap is not far away...
With poor AMD competition and exponential growth in datacenter and AI, I see their turnover above $9 billion next year.

 

[sonen]

^^ Nvidia always always always guides low

 

[Samwell]

Really good results. I do wonder whether the Q3 2017 gaming results includes some revenue from the Nintendo Switch deal. Going to be very interesting to see the Mercury and JP market reports as well as Nvidia's Q4 results.

They certainly stand to gain some marketshare, but it's uncertain how much. For example, Q2 2017 had a nice YoY increase in revenue (18.3%) but Nvidia lost marketshare (from 81.9% down to 70% YoY for AIB shipments) for that quarter. Revenue increase of 63.4% YoY should produce some nice marketshare gains regardless, however. The only potential fly in the ointment is how much, if any, of that is due to the Nintendo Switch deal. So, yeah, market reports from Mercury and JP will be interesting.

About the only blemish (and it's minor) is a slight drop in OEM and IP revenue (YoY).

Regards,
SB

Switch is not so big. Looking at the numbers of the Tegra company part, the switch should account for 50-60 Mio$ Revenue in Q3. Might lead to a bit more in Q4, but it's not playing a major role.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Switch is not so big. Looking at the numbers of the Tegra company part, the switch should account for 50-60 Mio$ Revenue in Q3. Might lead to a bit more in Q4, but it's not playing a major role.

So you're thinking that Nintendo are only paying Nvidia somewhere between 5-15 USD per part? I find that a bit low.

Regards,
SB

 

[Erinyes]

Really good results. I do wonder whether the Q3 2017 gaming results includes some revenue from the Nintendo Switch deal. Going to be very interesting to see the Mercury and JP market reports as well as Nvidia's Q4 results

I dont think Switch would be a part of the gaming results..and I'm not entirely sure they'd be shipping too many units right now outside of dev units. Since the release date is March 2017, bulk of the shipments should be in the preceding quarter.

guidance for next quarter is $2.1 billion but I believe they will go above $2.2B with xmas period and full tilt production for Switch. With underestimated guidance they can announce very positive results and keep the momentum. $100 per share and >50B market cap is not far away...
With poor AMD competition and exponential growth in datacenter and AI, I see their turnover above $9 billion next year.

Not so sure about $9B..seems a bit on the higher side. I dont see gaming revenue staying the same after the holiday season sales this year. Results from the Q1 2017 (Calendar) should give us a rough guidance. There will be some additional revenue from Volta in the two supercomputer contracts next year but AFAIK those are under $300m.

So you're thinking that Nintendo are only paying Nvidia somewhere between 5-15 USD per part? I find that a bit low.

After MS got burned with the original Xbox GPU deal, the general model followed by Sony/MS with AMD has been licensing the design/technology and then handling the manufacturing themselves. I see no reason for Nintendo to deviate from that model and the usual licensing fees are in the single digit dollar range.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

After MS got burned with the original Xbox GPU deal, the general model followed by Sony/MS with AMD has been licensing the design/technology and then handling the manufacturing themselves. I see no reason for Nintendo to deviate from that model and the usual licensing fees are in the single digit dollar range.

I have my doubts that Nvidia would license their IP/technology to another company as AMD are doing with Microsoft and Sony. They seem to be far more interested in finding customers for Tegra, even if it's a semi custom design (which it may or may not be), rather than licensing technology.

Will have to wait to see if they disclose any more information about the deal.

Regards,
SB

 

[CarstenS]

It's one thing for a developing market (deep learning) to go up 60% quarter over quarter from $151M to $240M, but their gaming revenue alone also went up 60% from $781M to $1244M. For a mature market, that's absolutely stunning.

This increase is larger than the total AMD computing and graphics BU revenue of $472M.

People were just holding off buying the old stuff which was severely getting long in the tooth and had problems of it's own (only 970 competitively priced before Pascal launch, but 3.5-GiB-stigma'ed). I cannot say I would have expected such a (financially) great quarter, but numbers were pretty much bound to go up substantially.

 

[xpea]

Not so sure about $9B..seems a bit on the higher side. I dont see gaming revenue staying the same after the holiday season sales this year. Results from the Q1 2017 (Calendar) should give us a rough guidance. There will be some additional revenue from Volta in the two supercomputer contracts next year but AFAIK those are under $300m.

I agree that Gaming will fade after next quarter but I also expect Datacenter and AI to continue to grow very quickly, balancing the global income. Nvidia built a very smart AI ecosystem that will push all product categories, from Tegra to Tesla. AI TAM is beyond imagination and we are only at the beginning...

After MS got burned with the original Xbox GPU deal, the general model followed by Sony/MS with AMD has been licensing the design/technology and then handling the manufacturing themselves. I see no reason for Nintendo to deviate from that model and the usual licensing fees are in the single digit dollar range.

I don't believe Nvidia sells only the IP to Nintendo. For this deal, Nvidia is providing too much to be another AMD. Green team seems to handle all software stack and a big chunk of dev support. I see it to be part of the silicon price they charge Nintendo. I may be wrong but we will know soon for sure...

 

[DrYesterday]

Switch is not so big. Looking at the numbers of the Tegra company part, the switch should account for 50-60 Mio$ Revenue in Q3. Might lead to a bit more in Q4, but it's not playing a major role.

Switch is launching in March. Production chips will stockpiled January/February. Nvidia wouldn't have production chips (*) delivered in October (Q3). Look for a small rev bump in Q4 (Nov-Dec-Jan) with a larger bump in Q1.

(*) 100's of devkits and testing systems will ship sooner, but not make a blip in the financials.

 

[Samwell]

So you're thinking that Nintendo are only paying Nvidia somewhere between 5-15 USD per part? I find that a bit low.

Regards,
SB

I haven't said that. I said that in the Q3 Financials the tegra revenue was up and it wasn't up because of auto. I don't believe in magic Nvidia shield sales or other parts so it has to be Nintento Switch Revenue. About 50Mio $ in Q3. Now the question is how many Tegras did they deliver for that price and how much revenue will they get in q4 from switch.

Switch is launching in March. Production chips will stockpiled January/February. Nvidia wouldn't have production chips (*) delivered in October (Q3). Look for a small rev bump in Q4 (Nov-Dec-Jan) with a larger bump in Q1.

(*) 100's of devkits and testing systems will ship sooner, but not make a blip in the financials.

They were already in trial production in september and mass production should start in november to get enough consoles for launch, so it's pretty possible nvidia already shipped good quantites in october. Most of them will ship in Q4. In q1 the revenue should decline again, as shipped tegras in Q1 mostly will land in consoles after launch.

 

[Deleted member 2197]

IBM and NVIDIA Enter Deep Learning-Focused Collaboration

A new deep learning software toolkit available today called IBM PowerAI runs on the recently announced IBM server built for artificial intelligence that features NVIDIA® NVLink™ interconnect technology optimized for IBM's Power architecture. The hardware-software solution provides more than 2X performance over comparable servers with 4 GPUs running AlexNet with Caffe.1 The same 4-GPU Power-based configuration running Alexnet with BVLC Caffe can also outperform 8 M40 GPU-based x86 configurations2, making it the world's fastest commercially available enterprise systems platform on two versions of a key deep learning framework.

"Our innovation with IBM on NVIDIA NVLink has created new opportunities for POWER in the deep learning and analytics market," said Ian Buck, VP and GM of Accelerated Computing Group. "NVIDIA's GPUDL libraries in PowerAI will provide world class high-performance tools to power GPU-accelerated deep learning applications."

http://www.guru3d.com/news-story/ibm-and-nvidia-enter-deep-learning-focused-collaboration.html

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I haven't said that. I said that in the Q3 Financials the tegra revenue was up and it wasn't up because of auto. I don't believe in magic Nvidia shield sales or other parts so it has to be Nintento Switch Revenue. About 50Mio $ in Q3. Now the question is how many Tegras did they deliver for that price and how much revenue will they get in q4 from switch.

NVidia are putting the Nintendo Switch deal under Gaming and not Tegra, according to their financial report.

Regards,
SB

 

[CSI PC]

People were just holding off buying the old stuff which was severely getting long in the tooth and had problems of it's own (only 970 competitively priced before Pascal launch, but 3.5-GiB-stigma'ed). I cannot say I would have expected such a (financially) great quarter, but numbers were pretty much bound to go up substantially.

Yeah and also cause a swing back towards Nvidia with regards to dGPU market share, as you say they lost some to AMD because of this holding off.
I am wondering just how much Pascal and being available in all tiers (and 1st to mobile laptops) will hurt AMD's market share when those figurres are released by JPR and Mercury Research, especially as I feel 3xx models cannibalised some of the Polaris desktop sales.

Cheers

 

[Samwell]

NVidia are putting the Nintendo Switch deal under Gaming and not Tegra, according to their financial report.

Regards,
SB

No they are putting the Switch in Gaming and Tegra. They show two different segmentations, 1 is by market, where it's located in gaming and the other one is by division, where it's located in tegra.