Things are simple me thinks. Just take this graph, enable the disabled parts, increase clocks, presto, the GTX 550!
Sure yes, but this doesn't mix with 1GB (unless it uses an asymmetric memory configuration).
And if it's just 128bit, the chip perfomance / area isn't really too good at (supposedly the same size as GF106) 230mm² (but well having disabled parts wouldn't be helping there of course). That would be just barely faster than HD5770 (except for HAWX 2) with the announced clocks - no way to touch a HD6850.
Even if it's 192bit, adding ROPs and bandwidth won't do THAT much - yes should be enough to really leave a HD5770 behind, but still a good deal slower than HD6850.
Actually some leaked numbers are out. These confirm 128bit and barely faster than HD5770, at a much higher price (for now). That said, I guess if it won't sell it can easily sell for cheaper, however the GTS->GTX name change seems totally unjustified to me for a product with just 15% higher performance (in fact, the relative difference to the next higher product, the GTX 560, has significantly grown compared to GTS 450 -> GTX 460).
Note that it looks like AMD will release HD6790 in the near future, which is presumably (my guess - other possibility would be crippled Barts) a slightly higher clocked Juniper XP.