Nvidia chips to make tardy debut

[Sharkfood]

As Dave already mentioned, the part of the article that got my attention was:

Nvidia representatives declined to comment, citing company policy against commenting on products before they're officially announced.

I don't find it humorous though... I find it troubling.

NVidia has always been a corporation to be outspoken about even non-existent technologies. They have always jumped at any opportunity to pump their product lines and abilities at any beck and call.

I would have expected some "NVidia has consistently dominated the 3D graphics market with value added products for all levels of consumers. Our future generation of products will be no different" or some other form of non-descript, back padding with no tangible substance.

To see a "no comment" style response is very much unlike NVidia. I wonder if the author just didnt pursue the right channels at NVidia or if there is anything to be concerned about with the NV30.

 

[Simon F]

Multisampling is cheap/cheat AA of course that is MO.

Multisampling is a more efficient way of doing AA: You don't need to waste time supersampling the textures as better filtering algorithms do a better job anyway.

Assuming there is no correlation between the visibility and the texture.

 

[Simon F]

I'll stick by those now infamous words from Kristof....

"Nothing is for free in 3D" ?

I suspect that even "nothing" costs a certain number of gates.

 

[JohnH]

Simon, you know that that depends on exactly how fast you want to actually do nothing... Just think of the cost of doing nothing for free

 

[Mintmaster]

Let's try to stay on topic, okay?

As for the article, one point I saw that seemed a bit preposterous was :

"ATI has the advantage with the few million customers willing to pay $400 for a high-end graphics card. "

I really don't think that there are a few million people in the market for these cards. I've seen their sales projections, and I doubt the market has suddenly grown that much.

Anyway, you gotta wonder what NVidia is doing while waiting for NV30 to get made properly in the fabs. You think their next product will be coming soon after NV30, or are they devoting time to making an uber-NV40? I don't think R400 will be many months behind NV30, so they've got to have something up their sleeves...

 

[Ailuros]

Assuming NV doesn´t break furthermore their 6-month product cycle, I´d guestimate NV35 somewhere in Q2 2003.

Logically it should shorten the NV30´s lifespan only if the timespan between announcement and global mass availability is bigger than 1 or 2 months.

What do you think Russ, do I qualify as an Amateur Armchair Analyst?

 

[KimB]

To see a "no comment" style response is very much unlike NVidia.

No, it's not. Here's a very quick example:

http://firingsquad.gamers.com/features/bbnvidia/page2.asp

FiringSquad: Will NVIDIA be announcing any interesting new products at Comdex besides mobile? Can you give us any hints? It is rumored that NVIDIA may finally announce the NV20 (GeForce3).

[Brian Burke]: This is only my second day and you are already trying to get me in trouble. Shame on you James.

For a long time it's been nVidia's policy not to comment on unannounced products. In particular, I think it's the launch of the original TNT that brought this policy about.

 

[Doomtrooper]

Sure Chalnoth...sure

 

[Humus]

As for the article, one point I saw that seemed a bit preposterous was :

"ATI has the advantage with the few million customers willing to pay $400 for a high-end graphics card. "

I really don't think that there are a few million people in the market for these cards. I've seen their sales projections, and I doubt the market has suddenly grown that much.

The 9700 has already sold over a million units.

 

[Ailuros]

I wasn't aware of that. That's quite an impressive number for such a young card as the R300.

I don't think though that the ultra high end covers more than 2-5% overall. But a couple of millions doesn't sound unfeasable if the above is true.

 

[g__day]

I had read somewhere after the late NV30 Nv40 may be closer to 18 months than 12, NVidia changing their cycle.

I can't remember the speculated launch for NV35 - and if it was just a clocked up, + DDR II supercharged chips due late Q3 2003. I wonder if we will see NV40 before Q3 2004

 

[Sabastian]

As for the article, one point I saw that seemed a bit preposterous was :

"ATI has the advantage with the few million customers willing to pay $400 for a high-end graphics card. "

I really don't think that there are a few million people in the market for these cards. I've seen their sales projections, and I doubt the market has suddenly grown that much.

The 9700 has already sold over a million units.

I believe that number is not sold but shipped. Not that it matters it will take far more then a million R300s to make ATi become profitable. It appears even though ATi has a better product line up according to this analyst nvidia is still gaining market share. http://finance.yahoo.com/mp#nvda That wouldn't bode well for ATi if this holds true.

 

[demalion]

As for the article, one point I saw that seemed a bit preposterous was :

"ATI has the advantage with the few million customers willing to pay $400 for a high-end graphics card. "

I really don't think that there are a few million people in the market for these cards. I've seen their sales projections, and I doubt the market has suddenly grown that much.

The 9700 has already sold over a million units.

I believe that number is not sold but shipped. Not that it matters it will take far more then a million R300s to make ATi become profitable. It appears even though ATi has a better product line up according to this analyst nvidia is still gaining market share. http://finance.yahoo.com/mp#nvda That wouldn't bode well for ATi if this holds true.

Aren't such reports made a few months after the applicable data is collected? I'd expect the beginning of next year for reports that reflect a comprehensive picture of the Radeon 9x00 series impact...I mean, the design wins recently announced haven't even had a chance to ship yet, have they? I guess the actual report would need to be seen.

And who mentioned profitability? Profitability will come from the integrated motherboard and lower end product, won't it? No one mentioned anything about that, just numbers of R300s shipped.

 

[martrox]

I agree with demalion, as any gains for ATI in market share won't be known for at least 3 to 6 months. The point is that ATI has done the groundwork to surpass nVidia in all markets that they compete. That's why a 4-6 month lead in product availability is so important. This is the same reason why nVidia was able to become the market leader they are. The day the TNT came out, and for a year later, nVidia was still behind 3dfx in market lead. Lets all remember this next Septemebr and just see what's happened, ok?

 

[Testiculus Giganticus]

The fact of the matter is that ATI is in a very good position just now. What they do with it is entirely up to them. At a later time it will become obvious wheter or not it was worth to suffer the 0.13 micron process growing pains-all that is valid now is that ATI have the highest performing card AVAILABLE. Period.

 

[Megadrive1988]

yeah it would seem that NV40 is likely not to be around until late 2004.

That might still allow a potential XBox-2 to be based on NV50 a year or 2 later.

 

[Megadrive1988]

I hope to see R350 from ATI by the spring, and R400 by September. that would allow enough time for ArtX/Team West to finish development on R500 by early 2004. I don't think that pace is too unreasonable to expect from ATI, provided they actually are increasing the pace of new chip introductions.

Nvidia design teams need to get cracking

 

[Lezmaka]

The 9700 has already sold over a million units.

Where'd you read that? Or was it just something you heard on another board and assume it's true? And is that 1 million chips, or 1 million boards?

 

[Humus]

I'm not sure where I read it first, but I think it was something like a Cnet article. I did a search and at least I found this quote from this site:

If we consider that its though that Radeon 9700 PRO has already shipped in the order of 1 Million units in about 3 months we can estimate that ATI are also shifting in the order of 32 Million Radeon 9000's.

http://www.beyond3d.com/articles/9500/

 

[Dave Baumann]

Flipcode reported it first in the Mojo report. I asked the chap I was speaking to on the 9500 CC is this was correct and he said it was. When they talk about 'shipped' I'd assume that means shipped out of ATI's doors.