Nv30 Confirmed RElease at Comdex?

Alexok:

"nVidia are confident that NV30 will come out in time for Christmas and will be in large enough quantaties for everyone... "

Uh-huh. Riiight... They're just SAYING this of course, they don't really have any control over it. They haven't even got first silicon yet, WOE THEM if they need more than one re-spin. I seriously doubt they'll have finished boards "for everyone" anytime this year considering all the verifying/debug work that will have to be done on both hardware and software, plus everything has to go out to production/boxing, ship out to retailers etc... All this takes time.

"And I still stick to what I think: NV30 will be released shortly after the annoucement on Comdex."

Released to Anand, Tom and Kyle in reality, on paper to everyone else MAYBE. On Nvidia reference boards, not production boards. Comdex's like mid-november, right? I say, FORGET IT. First silicon is end of october from the fab. Short of an act of god on Nvidia's behalf, it would be a virtual impossibility for them to release anything shortly after comdex unless it's paper only with a few samples to prominent websites to try and take wind out of the R300-sails. WOE THEM again if ATI gets an R350 refresh out the door around christmas though, but to be frank I don't think that will happen. ATI wants to pump as much cash out of this generation as they can I suppose...

And the only-128-bit memory rumors are doing the rounds again, but you said you had 'sources' assuring you it was 256-bit. I tell ya this Alex... You better PRAY they'll come through for you on this or your cred's shot to hell around here.

Of course, Nvidia might surprise me and pull a miracle out of their pocket, but I'm sceptical. They will pull through in the end though. Nvidia fumbled the ball this time 'round but they'll bounce back next gen (and ATI damn well better not get complacent like they were when THEY had all the OEM contracts!). No doubt about NV's strength long-term, but it seems likely announcement of next gen will be towards summer 2003 rather than mid-february like we're used to. Else NV30 will be an extremely short-lived product and that seems unlikely.

They'll be pushed back a quarter permanently due to this. That's my prediction. Probably not worth even the paper it's written on (and it's not even written on paper making it even worse!), but hey...! We're all entitled to an opinion!


*G*

 

"
The shareholders care.
I care too. I want NV30 to ship before XMAS. I don't have any stock in NVIDIA though - could be a bad time to buy some if I personally am unsure if NV30 will ship before or after XMAS.
"

Definetly not.
All shareholders and analysts care is when Nvidia makes revenue out of NV30 chips and as i said this is weeks before you will see the cards on shelves.
The board manufacturers will pay a pretty high price cause they know that in the first 1 to 2 months they will sell all boards they can make.

Same with AMD or Intel. They don't care when you can by a certain product in the retail market. The make revenues and profits when they sell large quantities to OEM's or wholesalers.
When you buy a Athlon or Pentium at a retail store AMD or Intel got payed for this CPU weeks before.

To sum it up. When Nvidia is telling you NV30 is out beforce christmas that means they start selling their chips with DDR RAMs in bundles to the borad manufacturers beforce christmas. That's all they have to care about.


"
Time goes by fast. But it sure would be sad thatd theyd miss the holiday season and miss all those sales that would boost their stock prices.
"
The enthusiast market is not affected by christmas at all.
People who are interested in a 400 to 500$ card will by it anyway no matter if it is christmas or 5 minutes to New Year's Eve.

 

Read the news article I had linked earlier in this thread! It indicated TSMC will have first samples available at the end of October. That indicates to me that they do NOT have first silicone yet.

I don't believe this. There is a credible source, TSMC, pointing out the timeline for NV30 chips and yet people (NV-f-boys) ignore the evidence. Pft...

--|BRiT|

 

Silicon, not silicone. Unless the cards have new "enhancements" beyond what we're expecting.

 

Yep, the core will bounce if dropped .

 

If NV30 is not already in production, then, at least in terms of real sales, they've missed the holiday season. They just have to get it out as quickly as possible to save face now.

 

Sounds like ramp certification, which probably means that these "end of October" wafers are not first silicon, but respin.

I expect to see (some) boards on shelves towards the end of December.

 

I think the reference to "such products" means all .13 products, not just NV30s. Although I agree that the end of October samples are probably respins, and if those are good, nVidia would be in position to release some sample boards at Comdex and have a few boards trickle into the retail channel before Christmas.

I think nVidia really would not want to release before DX9, because I think you will need DX9 to see whatever performance advantages the nv30 has over the R300.

 

See my earlier post: http://216.180.225.194/~beyond3d/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2385

The source is very reliable. The end of october samples are from the initial wafers, not a respin.

 

LOL!

Sorry sancheuz, but we've been through this loop many times arguing about where NV30's development may happen to be. I'd suggest a search on the forums.

 

Search the forums and read the thread(s) dealing with what "tape out" means. But to answer your question... NO. The terms are not equal; "tape-out" does not equal "produce a chip". The "produce a chip" will not happen until the end of October, and even then, it may be full of bugs.

--|BRiT|

 

Wasn't it confirmed last month that NV30 wasn't taped out? Only recently it was. Which sounds like the NV30 chips coming out late October is the very first batch . FULL OF BUGS lets hope not.

 

I dont recall this much frenzy over whether the Gf4 had taped out yet or not last year

 

All this "tape-out" shit... I don't give a flying f*ck honestly... everyone should be discussing (a) when those "famous" reviewers get their unit; and (b) when everyone else can buy a board.

 

Yeah but all that depends one when the board taped out...right? I don't honestly care that much either way, but it is starting to look more and more like what many used to consider the "worst case scenario": that ATi basically remains unchallenged at the top for close to 5 months until Christmas at the earliest.

I notice that after the initial mark down as the online vendors went for each others throats and burned off the extra margin they were trying to make at first, the R9700 hasn't really dropped in price at all. Much like the Ti4600 really, which didn't drop in price till the R9700 was released. Competition is good... Where is Nvidia when you need 'em?

 

And, it looks like ATI is ready to drop the R350 when the NV30 is officially announced!

http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/Article3.asp?datePublish=2002/09/30&pages=02&seq=3

 

They will drop the price of 9700 Pro by how much? (If r350 is faster)

 

so Comdex is mid-november, 2.5 months after R300 is available, 4 months after its launch.

Where do people get the following dates from:

ATI in 6 month product cycle if R350 is announced at Comdex? if I was an R300 buyer I'd be pretty upset with a 2.5 month product cycle.

ATI at top for 5 months