NPD September 2007

The sad thing is that even Ninety Night Nights sold 111k copies in the US. HS sales are pretty disappointing so far, but I'm sure it'll sell 500k world-wide eventually.

 

Singstar was delayed indefinitely. So next year and nobody knows an exact 2008 date.

 

Where do you find new games for around $50? eBay?

Yeah I agree, there are appealing games, whether or not they're big-sellers. Really, much better selection than at a comparable point after PS2's launch in the US.

That's not to say PS3's fortunes are going to turn around and repeat the PS2's success. Just an opinion that there are more games I'm interested in playing than at a comparable point.

Hope this generation has something for people who have no interest in FPS games. If Halo, GeOW, COD, GRAW and Resistance dominate and results in game development turning too FPS-centric, it's going to be too monotonous.

 

The only games coming that I think have potential for runaway success for Sony are Ratchet and Gran Turismo.

Eye of Judgement is neat, but card games are not mainstream. They are considered extremely nerdy and niche. There may be a big market, but they won't raise the profile of the system with mainstream audiences. I doubt you'll see big ads on tv. Also, I question how big a success it will be with the card gaming crowd. I don't play those games, but I view it as a social activity and I don't see why people would bother with it unless the mechanics of the card game were outrageously good. I doubt they'll be better than the established card series that people already play.

LBP looks neat and I'm sure it will do well, but I don't think it will result in a huge franchise like Sony needs to get the system going.

Uncharted also looks good, but right now I don't see massive success written all over it. I think it will have good reviews, and do reasonably well, but it won't be the next huge franchise on the level of Ratchet and Clank.

Singstar could be a big hit, but appeals to a more casual or party market that might not be as interested in the price the system and hardware.

 

Beta's don't sell hardware. You can sell software like MS did with Crackdown but that was Halo3. Still coupling the LBP beta with a game would a great way push software sales. GT5 prolouge does not hit the US this year.

R&C and Uncharted will have to still fight Halo3 and Mass Effect on the MS exclusive front. Not to mention Guitar Hero, Rock band and CoD4 on the multiplatform side! Good luck with that.

 

The games you mentioned are the top dogs this generation. It's a market shift to FPS and sports games this generation. Just like how platform/action games were wildly popular in the past and FPS took a back seat.

 

I think LBP is the biggest single weapon in Sony's gaming arsenal right now.

Firmware 2.0 may help some more in the hard core forums, Uncharted and Ratchet will get some attention, but LBP is the first 'new' thing that Sony will have to show a mass audience to really underline how PS3 is different and worth having on its own merits.

In the meantime, I expect a lot of marketing about PS3 as a low cost Blu-Ray player.

 

http://ve3dmedia.ign.com/images/01/78/17851_ConsoleTop10Platforms.jpg

good stuff on that pic

 

Well, may or may not be, but between LBP and the masses will be Sony's effective marketing of it. EyeToy and SingStar - both innovative and both large hits overseas - have been very mishandled by SCEA in the US. I hope that SCE's general excitement for the game is able to translate down into a cohesive strategy.

 

Indeed. What would be even more interesting is how much each software title cost to develop. That would be the only way to do a true comparison of software sales and developer impact from one console to another.

For example, if a game cost $5 million to make on Wii and it's averaging only 30k copies a month, but that generates $2 million in profits, then in 3 months it's even, and after that it's pure profit.

In comparison, if that same game costs $20 million to make on the 360/PS3, then it needs to sell at least 100k a month to break even in the same 3 month period, after which its pure profit.

Basically, we've seen that game sales on the Wii have generally not kept up with the same game sales on the 360. But given the gulf in startup costs, it probably doesn't have to.

We need to rethink sales comparisons in terms of revenue generation vs cost of startup, instead of the "X game sold Y units on Z console" paradigm we've been working with. Since the Wii is so radically different than the 360 and PS3 in terms of power and money required to generate the games, I don't think it's valid anymore.

Then maybe we can finally put the "Wii games don't sell as well as 360, so developers won't develop for it!" canard to bed.

 

I use familyvideo.com but only for Sony published titles I listed. Resistance for example is still full price, as is R&C.

There is also an additional $5 discount coupon but I don't know if it's still valid.

I'm sure there will be a lot of non-shooters but the important question is whether those people are willing to pay $400 dollars for a console and $60 for (likely) single player games.

 

So what you're saying is... games don't sell as well on the wii? All you have done is given a compelling argument for cheap ports.

 

Well I like online games, although I did buy Heavenly Sword and I will probably get Uncharted and maybe Assasin's Creed.

But online is still a smaller portion of the total user base. That's not to say online won't be one of the reasons many people buy certain games but I think a lot of the gaming mass market consists of people who may try it out once or twice online but be more content to finish the game and move on to another game.

 

The shift to online is happening right before your eyes. FPS are selling more and more and their MP component is just as relevant as SP, if not more. The gaming shift to FPS and Online is intertwined.

Outside of MMO's, FPS dominate the PC land. Check out a lot of euro sales and you'll see CS still making top 10. Console land is simply catching up PC land in terms of Online gaming and FPS is the gateway for it (until MMO's arrive).

 

As big as Halo3 must be online, there still are a lot of people who are playing the SP mostly if not exclusively, right?

Same for other FPS games too?

Has MS even said that XBL Gold memberships are over 50% of the user base yet?

 

Like Pokemon? And Singstar was a niche sing-y game when launched and has sold as much as big shooters, whereas Heavenly Sword was a mainstream game and hasn't done well. 'Maintream-ness' doesn't strike me as a good way to gauge importance to consumers. In my case, LBP and EOJ have sales potential where UE3 and Haze don't. Whether there's a big untapped market with more my tastes or not, I really don't know. At this juncture no-one knows. What Sony really needs is good promotion of their device as 'something for all the family' which I don't think they have. I watch very little TV, but I have seen Sony ads...always for Heavenly Sword. If they try to sell the machine on UE3 and Haze and don't showcase their other titles, they won't be doing themselves any favours IMO.

 

Nope, much more like 'Magic' than Pokemon in terms of mass appeal.

Pokemon is a cultural phenomenon, and the video games simply capitalized on that success. Singstar is Karaoke man! That's not really niche!

Eye of Judgement is a geeky card game, that isn't even in the same ballpark in terms of mass appeal as pokemon. Sure it adds some diversity, but I doubt it'll move big numbers.

Anyways, it was recently release so we'll see how it sells, but if HS can't hit 150k last month, EoJ will be lucky to get 100k imo.

 

Well I don't really think so. Sony had GT3, Devil May Cry, and GTA3 out at this point with FFX and MGS2 right around the corner.

That's Sony's big problem. FFXIII, GT5, and MGS4 had to be ready THIS holiday. Not next holiday. But that's not suprising really. Everyone warned them how hard the PS3 would be to program.

I mean, most of us expected a legendary battle this holiday:

Halo 3 vs. KZ 2 (KZ 2 delayed)
SC:C vs. MGS4 (both no shows)
ME vs. FFXIII (FFXIII delayed)
Forz 2 vs. GT5 (GT 5 delayed)

Sony didn't show up to the fight IMO.

 

I totally agree.

 

I live in a town (of 200,000) that had a Karaoke bar, once, about 15 years ago.