NPD September 2007

[RancidLunchmeat]

As far as the Wii goes, for those of you following my posts, I've stated on numerous occasions that I've never seen one in the wild.

Well, I recently moved from Fresno, CA to San Luis Obispo, CA (Central valley to central coast), and the Wii is in great abundance here.

I can walk into any Walmart, Target, etc.. and pick one up.

So my inability to see them on the shelves was most certainly a regional (very regional) phenomenon.

This actually downgrades my opinion of the Wii, because previously I had been under the assumption they simply weren't available.

3 hours S/E and they are readily available for purchase.

It makes me wonder if the Wii is really supply limited. I know others have made statements that the Wii is readily available through online retailers and that the Wii is readily available for purchase in other countries.

It's still selling extremely well, but I do have to say that the software attach rate for the Wii can't be encouraging to any developer. Especially when you consider the specifics involved in ports or developing a title with the Wii as the lead platform.

The PS3 price cut is going to be too little, too late. Mathematically, they simply can't regain the lead in the NA market at this point.

But, that's what Sony gets for saying that they'd sell 10M consoles at $600 with no games simply because it was 'A Playstation'.

It will take more than one generation of stumbling before Sony goes the way of Sega, but I really do think that after the Holiday season it will be clear that this generation is lost for Sony.

They tried to do too much at too high of a price point.

And there will become a point probably this time two years from now, when MS is dumping 360s on the market because their main revenue stream at that point will be content distribution, not hardware or software.

I'm not sure that a total domination of the 360 over the PS3 isn't a good thing for the industry. If that were to happen, we might see the next generation have a collaboration of the two, with Sony hardware running MS software, and with Nintendo producing a scaled down "Gaming Only" system. Which is really all MS wanted from the beginning.

I can picture a Sony console, running MS software, providing movies and extra content competing against a Nintendo console that only provides exclusive IPs like the good 'ole days of the NES.

I think everybody wins in that situation, and I really believe that Sony, MS, and N would all be rather happy to have that shake out to be the final situation.

 

[AzBat]

Microsoft stated 360 hardware sale "nearly tripled" the week of Halo 3. That stat was in fact the basis for my 500k prediction. Indicating they sold about 210,000 that week.

You also have to remember that the Halo 3 SKU shipped over a week before Halo 3 shipped. I can concievably see existing 360 owners buying a pretty good percentage of those units. The majority of the sales should have happened before Halo 3 shipped, but the opposite is also just as possible. Anyway, I don't remember Microsoft stating how many of those units they shipped to retail and if they plan on having more for the holiday season. Would be nice if NPD broke down the sales of the different SKUs.

Tommy McClain

 

[Carl B]

Holiday numbers should be very, very interesting. I think if anyone had suggested on these forums at the introduction of XB360 that nearly a year after introduction of PS3 that XB360 would be outselling PS3 in the US in monthly sales at 4-1, there would have been a deafening chorus to delete such "trash talk" as blatant trolling.

Well... if you added to that scenario that the 4:1 month was also Halo 3's release month, I think the chorus of blatant trolling accusations wouldn't have been as loud.

This actually downgrades my opinion of the Wii...

From what to what?

 

[warb]

It is a shame however, that such a lackluster title imo as Halo 3 is driving high 360 sales. I wonder what, if any, long term damage that could do?

Probably not too much, as many "average users" are probably satisfied with the game. Probably even claim they "love it" without knowing what they're saying

It shouldn't do any damage at all, because in reality Halo 3 is a fantastic package by any standards.

 

[Geo]

Well... if you added to that scenario that the 4:1 month was also Halo 3's release month, I think the chorus of blatant trolling accusations wouldn't have been as loud.

Not to mention that if you'd predicted that Halo 3 would ship almost two years after XB360 you'd have gotten some raspberries from the other direction. :smile:

 

[pipo]

Wow, MS in big fat lier scandal, who would have guessed

You've got to try harder.

501:119 sounds better to you?

It shouldn't do any damage at all, because in reality Halo 3 is a fantastic package by any standards.

QFT.

 

[liolio]

And there will become a point probably this time two years from now, when MS is dumping 360s on the market because their main revenue stream at that point will be content distribution, not hardware or software.

I'm not sure that a total domination of the 360 over the PS3 isn't a good thing for the industry. If that were to happen, we might see the next generation have a collaboration of the two, with Sony hardware running MS software, and with Nintendo producing a scaled down "Gaming Only" system. Which is really all MS wanted from the beginning.

I can picture a Sony console, running MS software, providing movies and extra content competing against a Nintendo console that only provides exclusive IPs like the good 'ole days of the NES.

I think everybody wins in that situation, and I really believe that Sony, MS, and N would all be rather happy to have that shake out to be the final situation.

I don't think MS will dump the xbox brand! OK the "live" brand can be overall more important to MS in the long run.

So I think that a MS/sony alliance is ubberly anticipated.
I reckon that MS would be happy to leave the hardware business and let somebody else provide the hardware.
BUT MS is also trying to push gaming on PC, MS may want to accelerate convergence between the PC world the console world, "live everywhere" is a good example of this strategy.
My point is Wintel!
Next time MS will try again to convince Intel to join!
And if not Intel, I think they will try AMD before thinking about Sony.
For me the combination of pc+console represent a greater opportunity for games but even more for content broadcast than whatever Sony market share put on the table (especially if Sony doesn't do that great this gen).

IMHO

 

[one]

Thats pretty wild to even think about. I keep trying to grasp it.

Halo 3 Legendary @ $130 sold greater then 400k and Heavenly Sword was @ $60 and sold 140k.

For as great a game Sword is, that is AMAZING. It just doesnt add up. At this point, Bungie and MS should just unleash more Legendary kits on the market, and sell what they can. The market is there.

WOW.

Just in case you missed it the first time:
Halo 3 Legendary @ $130 sold greater then 400k and Heavenly Sword was @ $60 and sold 140k.

How does it make you go WOW when Halo 3 is a sequel to a mega-popular FPS title on a $200-cheaper console with a millions-bigger install base?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

How does it make you go WOW when Halo 3 is a sequel to a mega-popular FPS title on a $200-cheaper console with a millions-bigger install base?

Well probably because the 130$ legendary edition is the uber nerd-only package, and the fact that it sells so many copies is an amazing achievement in its own right, even if there is no comparison. 130$ is a lot of money for a game.

 

[PARANOiA]

Here's an interesting question...

What happened to Heavenly Sword? With an install base of about 1.5m in the US - all early adopters, buying at $500-$600 - how could the game sell less than 150k? After all, this was one of the games PS3 gamers have been holding their breath for - a good quality exclusive during a very slow year. It's a bit of a shame to have a new IP of decent quality stutter like that.

Possibly the install base has a high proportion of owners in it just for the movies?

 

[liolio]

Here's an interesting question...

What happened to Heavenly Sword? With an install base of about 1.5m in the US - all early adopters, buying at $500-$600 - how could the game sell less than 150k? After all, this was one of the games PS3 gamers have been holding their breath for - a good quality exclusive during a very slow year. It's a bit of a shame to have a new IP of decent quality stutter like that.

Possibly the install base has a high proportion of owners in it just for the movies?

[troll]
and Lair?
[/troll]

I hope Sony will have enough money left to make a really strong marketing push along the price cut announcement, because they need it... "desperately" in US to use words from another thread.

 

[AlNom]

Ok, so if Lair and HS are not selling out as much, what exclusives does Sony have for the last three months that can help it?

UT3
Haze

 

[liolio]

Ok, so if Lair and HS are not selling out as much, what exclusives does Sony have for the last three months that can help it?

UT3
Haze

Marketed properly Ratcet and clank and uncharted can do well.
Sadly Uncharted will be out really late this year (december).

I guess Gt prologue will also help the ps3 as the game looks as astounding as ever.

Anway, I see nothing that sony could do in US to prevent MS and BigN to hurt them hard this fall

 

[assen]

Ok, so if Lair and HS are not selling out as much, what exclusives does Sony have for the last three months that can help it?

UT3
Haze

AFAIK UT3 is delayed to 2008.
The buzz around Uncharted is not very positive; Ratchet and Clank is shaping up to be the only really great game on the system this year.

 

[BoardBonobo]

Well Lair's doing really well in Japan, they seem far more comfortable using the sixaxis than western markets do.

As for Heavenly Sword I can't think why that wouldn't sell other than it's not been promoted enough. I've had people decide to get a PS3 after playing it here!

 

[liolio]

Well Lair's doing really well in Japan, they seem far more comfortable using the sixaxis than western markets do.

As for Heavenly Sword I can't think why that wouldn't sell other than it's not been promoted enough. I've had people decide to get a PS3 after playing it here!

I would wait to see how it will fare in the long run as no matter how negative are most reviews this game has been hyped to hell

Interestingly, Lair is delayed in Europe, controls patching?
Could be interesting! as Europe seems Sony best opportunity so far.

 

[Crossbar]

AFAIK UT3 is delayed to 2008.
The buzz around Uncharted is not very positive; Ratchet and Clank is shaping up to be the only really great game on the system this year.

Some people with access to the review version of Uncharted are classifying it as a GOTY candidate. Kind of positive buzz in my ears.

 

[one]

Here's an interesting question...

What happened to Heavenly Sword? With an install base of about 1.5m in the US - all early adopters, buying at $500-$600 - how could the game sell less than 150k? After all, this was one of the games PS3 gamers have been holding their breath for - a good quality exclusive during a very slow year. It's a bit of a shame to have a new IP of decent quality stutter like that.

Possibly the install base has a high proportion of owners in it just for the movies?

Some of those people are likely to own Xbox 360 too. Probably you should compare the sales of HS not with Halo 3 Legendary but with games like 99 Nights, but it's still not a good comparison since there was no competition in the first year of Xbox 360.

 

[Rangers]

So are some people still going to bash MS for passing up HS after these figure?

Although, HS would have probably been a sales success on 360, since virtually every big game seems to be.

Probably you should compare the sales of HS not with Halo 3 Legendary but with games like 99 Nights,

99 nights was always kind of a budget/non-hyped title on 360, though. Almost an afterthought, expected to be crappy.

 

[PARANOiA]

Some of those people are likely to own Xbox 360 too. Probably you should compare the sales of HS not with Halo 3 Legendary but with games like 99 Nights, but it's still not a good comparison since there was no competition in the first year of Xbox 360.

I'm not comparing it to Halo at all. And why on earth would I compare a good game (HS) to a bad one (NNN)?

You don't think it's odd that HS was largely overlooked by the PS3 crowd, when the library was fairly dry, and has been for some time, given the high profile of the title? I think it's the very definition of odd - and at least warrants a good discussion... doesn't need to turn into a "format war" nonsense chat.