NPD September 2007
- Thread starter Zaphod
- Start date
Rancid I bet you were one of those that thought Nintendo should get out of hardware during the GameCube gen. 
Anyway, if Red Steel was ~$12 million (and that game is no good, I can attest) MP3 had to be around $10 million at least. Retro Studios has a serious development environment, and although not publicly hyped to the extent of Gears or Halo, Metroid is nevertheless a very serious dev effort in the FPS segment. Prime and Prime Echoes were both multi-year projects, and the latest was in the same boat, if not moreso. Whatever Nintendo spends on their internal titles, you can be sure that Metroid comes in at the higher end in terms of dev costs.
Anyway, if Red Steel was ~$12 million (and that game is no good, I can attest) MP3 had to be around $10 million at least. Retro Studios has a serious development environment, and although not publicly hyped to the extent of Gears or Halo, Metroid is nevertheless a very serious dev effort in the FPS segment. Prime and Prime Echoes were both multi-year projects, and the latest was in the same boat, if not moreso. Whatever Nintendo spends on their internal titles, you can be sure that Metroid comes in at the higher end in terms of dev costs.
This is the most concrete feedback. Sony camp is late. So the list becomes...
Shooter: Resistance (new patch coming), WarHawk (new patch coming), Haze, UT3 (might be delayed), (COD4)
Stealth: No show
RPG: No show, (Oblivion)
Platformer: Ratchet & Clank
Adventure/Action: Uncharted, Heavenly Sword, Folklore, Eye of Judgment, (Ninja Gaiden Sigma), (Assassin's Creed)
Driving: MotorStorm, F1, GT
Party/Social: Singstar, LBP beta
Others: Playstation Home beta
Arcade: Everyday Shooter, Super Stardust HD, Calling all Cars, flOw, ...
The flipside, though, Patsu, is that the PS3 has what is arguably the worst line up across the three next gen systems going into this Xmas. Sure, there's a few decent titles, but if I was a gamer shopping for my first next-gen system, the PS3 is the dead duck this Christmas.
People aren't going to buy it thinking, "well, I guess there's something to play.. *shrug*" They'll look at the cost, the library, and - if informed - what's around the corner. The last point is the PS3's strength... not what's on the shelf now, unfortunately, when compared to the competition.
Mintmaster
Veteran
Excuse me? Where?You should re-read your post. You just contradicted yourself.
Madden is multiplatform. You can't separate the cost as X dollars Wii and Y dollars 360. The ports share tons of costs just as I was illustrating to you. For multiplatform games there is nothing remotely resembling the $5M Wii vs. $20M 360 comparison that you were talking about.
The only time you have a huge disparity is when you compare completely different games, not the "same game" as you alluded to in your post. Such a comparison is completely useless.
That depends entirely on what you're after. Wii has a considerably poorer line-up if you're into high-quality action and shooter titles. XB360 has a worse library if you're after less conventional social gaming. I think the problem Sony face is they straddle the two ends of the spectrum. Those who like the traditional gaming sector look at PS3 and see little to appeal to them versus XB360's stronger lineup in that area. Those who want to just party on down with friends and family see Wii as offering more in that respect.
I also think all this discussion doesn't apply well to the market as it's between people who know the libraries, whereas most buyers don't. I wouldn't expect the average Joe to walk into a game store knowing more than a few titles available for a platform. eg. I was in a store the other day and a woman was grabbing a Wii, and asked about Wii Sports and Wii Play. She said a [work colleague?] had a Wii with Play and asked if it was any good. The staff member replied that it came with the second controller so was worth it. She didn't know Play came with a second Wiimote - I don't imagine her understanding of Wii went as far as Metroid, Mario Galaxies, Red Steel, and the rest.
Those buying a far more expensive device might be trusted to have researched a bit further, but I wouldn't be surprised if all they need know is there are two or three games they're keen on to convince them the system is (or will be) well populated with titles they want. Thus if you can show a couple of amazing demos in store, that'll be enough to convince the public who wanders in that your library is sufficient and then all you need to worry about is price. Getting good store demos is hard though. I think a lot, probably most, marketing is done in the home with people showcasing systems they own to friends and family, or via word of mouth from those who follow the industry.
Putting it another way, for those saying PS3's library is lacking, IMO if PS3 was the same price as XB360, it'd sell as well even with what's considered a weaker library.
Well, in the United States, soon that will be nearly the case. 399 PS3 versus 349/449 360. And somehow, I am not expecting PS3 to match 360 sales anytime soon (although I could be wrong).
You may be thinking of Core/Arcade, but sales of that unit are near nonexistent. Again, at least in the states. A core has been near impossible to find anywhere for months, and never sold more than probably 10% of sku's according to what data we have before that.
I'm not as familiar with what may be going on in Europe saleswise, though. Relatively, PS3 does better there, at least in non-uk nations.
Looking at the HW sales, Nintendo's relatively quiet month = Microsoft's Halo 3 feast month. Now we can have some estimate for the reach of the biggest Microsoft franchise in contrast to Nintendo's efficiency.
Basically Nintendo postponed "next-gen" to Wii 2, the correct answer to when & how for Wii 2 must be worth multi-billion dollars or more.As someone put it at Gaf, "so long next gen, it was nice knowing you"
Seriously though, the Wii is a (rather economical!) steamroller.
I disagree, Wii isn't really making money for anyone else but Nintendo. So the large publishers will flock to the platforms that are profitable, where people buy games: Xbox and PS3.
Based on how software sales on the 360 fare, it may turn out that last gen, PS2's userbase was pretty uneven and only 25-30 million core gamers have been sustaining the game publishers. The rest have used their PS2s as most people treat their Wiis: like a board game that gets unpacked at parties only. But because of the overall dominance of the PS2 platform, these two (or more) very different market segments were serviced by the same hardware.
If that's the case, then this gen may end up having ~50% of hw sales for HD - but a much larger percentage of sw sales for HD.
Based on how software sales on the 360 fare, it may turn out that last gen, PS2's userbase was pretty uneven and only 25-30 million core gamers have been sustaining the game publishers. The rest have used their PS2s as most people treat their Wiis: like a board game that gets unpacked at parties only. But because of the overall dominance of the PS2 platform, these two (or more) very different market segments were serviced by the same hardware.
If that's the case, then this gen may end up having ~50% of hw sales for HD - but a much larger percentage of sw sales for HD.
Not totally. The impact of sales we have seen is likely people who were moved to buy a console specifically for H3. It remains to be seen how much impact it will have in the coming months (years?) on people's decision of which console to buy who are out to buy a console because of other factors (most notably as gifts in the upcoming holiday season). It's ability to be a tipping point when added to all the other factors that go into the decision of when to buy a new console and which one to buy is going to extend well past the launch month.
I also wonder if the Wii buyer's seeming indifference to the lack of software will translate to an indifference to the presence of software titles. Because of the supply issues we haven't been able to judge how much any of the major titles released so far have impacted HW sales. And I don't think we will be able to judge that anytime soon with the holiday boost obscuring any impact of a title like SMG on sales. Maybe they will have their production in order by the time SSB comes out so we can see whether that moves the needle.
To be honest, most people who are buying consoles that don't know anything about them, are just buying them because their kids want it. So if their kid says, "I want an Xbox360," they're not likely to walk out of the store with a PS3. I mean, who walks into a store and drops $500 on a product they don't know anything about? There may be the odd person, but that would be the extreme minority.
The best way to sell a console is to have a few "must have" titles that all of your friends are talking about, and a big library of games behind it. Right now, the PS3 isn't getting much of any word of mouth because there isn't really anything spectacular on it.
I think the fact that Wii sold the same amount than before (per week) while Halo3 came is clear indicator that they aren't fighting for the same customers at all, not a single one.
Wii is bought purely because it's the new thing to get to play Wii Sports (and Wii Play). Nothing will make those masses change their habits, not SMG (you can wish all you want but it just WILL NOT sell 3.3M in the first 2 weeks, if we have any hope of getting any real games from nintendo we all can just hope it will sell real good in the long run), no "real game" will. Wii Fit might do it, but then again. I'm not quite sure those people that want to have fun with their friends with some Wii Sports are going to start "training" with their consoles. I might be wrong there though. I don't belong to that group of people.
Wii is bought purely because it's the new thing to get to play Wii Sports (and Wii Play). Nothing will make those masses change their habits, not SMG (you can wish all you want but it just WILL NOT sell 3.3M in the first 2 weeks, if we have any hope of getting any real games from nintendo we all can just hope it will sell real good in the long run), no "real game" will. Wii Fit might do it, but then again. I'm not quite sure those people that want to have fun with their friends with some Wii Sports are going to start "training" with their consoles. I might be wrong there though. I don't belong to that group of people.
Yes and no. Generally, I find that there are plenty of fun things to do on the PS3 compared to last year, and the competition. Yet people are still stucked in last year's mindset. We also tend to use our preferences to gauge success. As I keep stressing, a purchase is based on the total package. It's like many hardcore gamers claim that Wii has a weak lineup but the stick still sell like hotcakes because it has content and concepts that appeal to others.
Whether PS3 has the worst line-up depends on our individual taste and preferences (e.g., like many who played it, I considered Resistance a super strong title. Someone else might see Eye of Judgment as their killer app).
To me, the PS3 line-up is the most interesting of the three. I cannot find the experience anywhere else so to speak (refering to PS Eye, Playstation Home + LBP pure social gaming focus, and all the developers' work to push the envelope). There are hits and misses when they explore the boundaries but I already expected that... like the delays. So far, Lair is the only one that disappoints because they gave up; not so much because they failed to deliver.
For a one year old, the PS3 game library is also diverse and deep. I didn't expect this (because I was pretty sure the vendors will bank on mainstream titles/genra first). Things like Folklore, Everyday Shooter, flOw, LittleBigPlanet opened my eyes. IMHO, the norm/silent majority is not giving enough credit to "soulful" titles like Everyday Shooter and Folklore. To me they represent the very essence of gaming. Unfortunately, people will go for big name franchises regardless of whether they still hold up to their name or not.
In terms of mainstream stuff... I still go back to play Resistance every weekday (after almost 1 year), and MotorStorm racing (once in every 1-2 weeks). Both still have elements that is comparable to (and in some cases surpass) the latest and greatest genre experience in town. I also go back to Heavenly Sword often to admire the beautiful sceneries, the amazing cut scenes and make Nariko do aerial combat, or fudge with Kai's arrow skills. Meanwhile, other folks continue to go gah-gah over GT
rologue and Uncharted trailers.In the end, there is plenty to like and be impressed with on the PS3 (e.g., The build quality, quietness, Blu-ray playback and free movies, etc). And it's still a work in progress.
I don't expect PS3 to outsell Xbox 360 or Wii this season, but it is most certainly not a dead duck. It also depends on how Sony markets it more so than whether PS3 is strong/weak.
The PS3 is strong this year but Sony is not doing a good job (so far) to position it. There are good news but Sony left them scattered all over the place/timeline and they lost a large part of their impact (no multiplier effect). The recent price drop, Blu-ray activities seems to indicate more skillful and focused handling, but we have to let Sony make a few more moves before we can confirm if their marketing department is back.
I also get the sense that they are not so dedicated about PS3 marketing yet because it is a work in progress (They are waiting for their next big thing to be done). Still, you can't let a product dry out in the open like that. So we shall see.
First, the PS3 is not as weak as you think.
Second, people will always look at the total package to buy. See Wii and Mac.
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Johnny Awesome
Veteran
That pie chart is CRAZY. No one would have expected us to be here a few years ago. X360 totally dominating PS3? It's pretty insane. Sony needs to get some big titles out PRONTO.
Does anyone have the platform software sales marketshare % for August or previous months? I want a point of reference for a non-Halo 3 dominated month like this:
Yeah, that would be interesting and why is the PS2 left out in the picture?
Who made the chart?
For best effects ;-)
What MS has achieved and enjoyed is a fruit of their labor. They have been extremely quick in fitting Windows technologies into video gaming. They also understand hardcore gamers' needs and have executed well. Most importantly, they are willing to spend big bucks on the things that bring value to the consumers directly.
Despite a late start, Nintendo wins all by not only leading the industry, but also broadening video gaming appeal. It is also the most profitable by a far far margin at the same time. A single month revenue pie-chart is meaningless in front of them. What's scary about Nintendo is they are not done yet (They are pacing themselves the way a good marketer should. Damn it, I so envy them).
Sony has the most sophisticated hardware product, the most ambitious vision and is only able to show part of the product after close to a year (Please show PS Home/Matrix at your first birthday; it's symbolic ;-) ). The company is disadvantaged by a very complex strategy, their organizational weaknesses (Piecemeail hardware device strategy as opposed to consolidated software platform strategy), and idiosyncracies (Need to nickel and dime profit every quarter but still want to think big, prefers to go alone even if the odds are against them, rather poor at forming partnerships). The approach they chose is also suboptimal (e.g., Money you saved this quarter will go out subsequent quarters to overcome the loss in momentum, why not spend it first to anchor the momentum ?).
The good thing is Sony top management seems to be pretty quick in responding to threats (but that's a passive/defensive move). PS3 represents the first concrete platform that helps to rally their divisions together. Things are improving at worrying but steady pace. What amazes me is their confidence/ignorance/blatantness/stupidity to leave PS3 out there without a cohesive plan and "air cover". I hope they persist and survive the change -- for greater things will come as a result. I need someone to give Apple, Nintendo and Nokia some pain.
... Actually, what I want most is Dean Takahashi to do a book on PS3. I mean the real, behind-the-scene stuff. The book could be as big as Halo you know.
EDIT: Okay Sony, if not the Takahashi book, then bring me Valkyria of Battefield earlier
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The source is NPD, the chart is by Kotaku...the reason the PS2 isn't in there is the same reason Xbox, Gamecube, Dreamcast, NES, tiger handheld, DS, PSP, and WonderSwan sales aren't in there -- it's strictly a "next-gen" (is it "current-gen" now?) home console software sales comparison.
