NPD September 2002

[wazoo]

Nintendo's Gamecube + SMS bundle for $179.99 isn't much competition for the Xbox + SegaGT + JSRF bundle for $199.99, especially when the parents buying it for their kids are told that the Xbox ships with the harddrive and ethernet that are "coming soon" for more money on the Gamecube...

2 games, less hardware addons in the future == more sales in the eyes of parents.

history of Sega bundles (Saturn + VF2/SR and DC + JSR/VT/SA) does not tell the same story. Each time, you see fans saying that this kind of bundles will wipe out the competition. As for the ethernet addon, i do not know for the US, but in Europe it is totally useless, especially for a kid console. Even in the US, you should say to those parents,that they will need broadband access (and put the PC near the console if they want their home to look like a big mess of cables).

 

[marconelly!]

Besides that, I always thought that the 'network access out of the box' statement was very deceiveing in the case of the Xbox. It's not like you can just plug it and play like you could with Dreamcast. You still have to pay $50 for the actual access for one year, although the hardware is there.

 

[Mark Cicero]

I'm fairly wary of saying that this holiday season is going to show the full effect since MS has pushed everything non-live to Q1 2003 both for quality (thank god!) and for marketing. Not to mention that Zelda, Skies of Arcadia Legends, and even Devil May Cry 2 are not showing up until after the holiday market. I'd say Valentine's Day is where the dust will finally settle and an accurate assessment of the winter market.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Good point.

I think MS and Nintendo will have done very well in the US if they can manage a 50/25/25 split (Sony/MS/Nintendo). If they can hold Sony to a 50% run-rate, then MS and Nintendo should be able to do even better in 2003 and 2004.

I figure Sony should be able to sell 4 million units this holiday in the US and there's definitely a decent chance that MS and Nintendo will each sell 2 million. Time is not really on Sony's side. Just compare MS 2003 lineup with Sony's.

I think analysts are clearly wrong about the Xbox bundle being a desperation move (just like I figure that MS only loses $50 per unit). The whole idea for MS is marketshare as early as possible. Each gamer will purchase about 3 games per year, which is about 3*($30*.33+$7*.67)= $45 in software revenue to MS. Therefore, it's worth it to lose an extra $45 per unit to get that gamer onboard a year earlier. It's safe to say that MS didn't pay Sega $45/Xbox for the bundle.

Personally, I think Microsoft should lower the Xbox to $149 in March. Why wait until the tail end of the generation to nab those users? Also, I just realized that signing up for Xbox Live effectively doubles Microsoft's annual average take from a consumer. Hmm...

 

[Glonk]

How can you have made up your mind on that already? Allot of people waiting for SMS to get a GameCube won't be able to get it in Setptember because its to close to Christmas.

At which point will you stop saying "Just wait, just wait, just wait" and wake up and realize Mario isn't the mass-market mascot anymore.

He's not considered cool, regardless of how great Mario games are. It may be a shame, but that's how it is.

I wouldn't bet on it, Sega GT and JSRF are two good games but not AAA games and certainly not known by parents or wanted by kids. They're pretty much nameless brands appart from the Sega in Sega GT. Mario is a big famous brand and one a parent can be sure will satisfy his/her kids.

I wouldn't bet on that, either. If the parents saw the absolutely horrible SMS ads, they'd think the game is pretty damn boring. The parents are more concerned with value for their money than they are with what character stars in the game. They'll see Xbox for $199 with 2 games, harddrive, ethernet, and hear that it's more powerful from the salesman. The Gamecube for $179 with SMS and harddrive for extra $, ethernet for extra $, and slightly less powerful isn't any more enticing. Throw in the fact that their kids can have a $20 DVD player if they want on the Xbox (or free if the buy before Nov 1st), and it's a LOT more appealing from a parent's point of view in general.

Parents buying a console for there kids don't care about hard drives and ethernet... they want something that plays fun games, that's it.

I really disagree. Parents are going to be more concerned with future costs. Do they REALLY want their kid whining about a new hardware add-on for more money every month, or do they want to get the console that ships with all that stuff? Not to mention the parental controls on the Xbox...

 

[zurich]

Not to mention that Xbox is American. You'd be suprised at how many (North) American parents want to support (North) America. I know back in the day, my mom didn't like buying me Sega and Nintendo stuff, simply because it was Japanese. Unfortunately, there wasn't much a choice back then...

zurich

 

[Teasy]

At which point will you stop saying "Just wait, just wait, just wait" and wake up and realize Mario isn't the mass-market mascot anymore.

Well I've now said wait all of.. what?.... once, wow that's excessive eh

So far Mario is selling extremely well, it should be given until after Christmas to make a real difference to console sales for the reasons I've already given.

He's not considered cool, regardless of how great Mario games are. It may be a shame, but that's how it is.

Was Mario even considered cool with N64? Not AFAICS, all the "cool" people (read immature people who like to think there cool, the sort of people who smoke to be cool) had a PSX and thought Mario was "gay". Mario still sold what was it?.. 15 million copies or something like that?

I wouldn't bet on that, either. If the parents saw the absolutely horrible SMS ads, they'd think the game is pretty damn boring.

I don't know what ads your refering to since you must get different ads then the ones over here. But most parents don't care about ads, they don't even know nor think they know what is boring or exciting in a game (with the exception of game playing parents) all they trust is past success at pleasing there children, something Mario and Nintendo never fail to do.

The parents are more concerned with value for their money than they are with what character stars in the game. They'll see Xbox for $199 with 2 games, harddrive, ethernet, and hear that it's more powerful from the salesman.

Again most parents don't know what a hard drive or ethernet is, they just want what they think will be most fun for there kids. They don't know what value for money is for consoles. You really think parents who know nothing about games are stupid enough to think "duh.. two games vs one game.. duh two games must always be better even if I've never heard of those two and the other is a massive brand name famous for being extremely popular with kids", I don't think so.

I really disagree. Parents are going to be more concerned with future costs. Do they REALLY want their kid whining about a new hardware add-on for more money every month, or do they want to get the console that ships with all that stuff? Not to mention the parental controls on the Xbox...

Once again Glonk were dealing with the average parent here. They don't know what addons may be needed in the future. They're just buying a console for there kids, a toy to them, something fun from someone proven for prividing there kids with fun games. Not a multi-functional PC/entertainment center from a company known fo buggy PC software and dodgy monopoly trials

You'll get some that may know what there talking about and may see XBox as a better deal, otherwise its just clueless parents buying a games machine (not a DVD, not a PC with HDD and ethernet) with the most fun games for there kids.

I mean yeah you could argue that the American vs Japanese bit could help XBox, but are people in the U.S really so zenophobic that they'd base there buying decisions on something as pathetic as that? No really, I'm asking.

You think XBox will sell more at Christmas, I think GameCube will, we could both be wrong, all we can do is wait and see.

 

[Goldni]

Both bundles are good deals. I'd give anything to see PS2 brought down a bit. Sony has been the leader for too long now. They've gotten a big head (alot bigger than Nintendo's head back in the early 90's).

I really dont see any reason why both MS and NOA can't sell around 10 to 12 million units by March '03 (globally). If they can that would be pretty nice for both. Again Sep saw the Cube pull almost even with XB despite hardly no advertising (save for SMS and SFA). It's almost scary to think if NOA would ever decide to promote the Cube with at least 50% of the effort MS has the XB, then it would pull in some great numbers. NOA has NO print ads for ANY of thier big games ala Metroid, SMS, AC, MP4, Wario, etc. NO print ads for the Cube at all. They've recently started up more with commercials but NOTHING compared to XB. I just dont see how and why the Gamecube is'nt just getting clobbered in sales. And yet it really is hanging in there with almost 0 effort coming from NOA's pitiful marketing.

 

[Tagrineth]

Both bundles are good deals. I'd give anything to see PS2 brought down a bit. Sony has been the leader for too long now. They've gotten a big head (alot bigger than Nintendo's head back in the early 90's).

I really dont see any reason why both MS and NOA can't sell around 10 to 12 million units by March '03 (globally). If they can that would be pretty nice for both. Again Sep saw the Cube pull almost even with XB despite hardly no advertising (save for SMS and SFA). It's almost scary to think if NOA would ever decide to promote the Cube with at least 50% of the effort MS has the XB, then it would pull in some great numbers. NOA has NO print ads for ANY of thier big games ala Metroid, SMS, AC, MP4, Wario, etc. NO print ads for the Cube at all. They've recently started up more with commercials but NOTHING compared to XB. I just dont see how and why the Gamecube is'nt just getting clobbered in sales. And yet it really is hanging in there with almost 0 effort coming from NOA's pitiful marketing.

They do have print ads - but only thanks to retailers. Kinda silly really.

I'm sure you've seen it, anyway... 'Even when you're not playing it, you're playing it' or something, with the kid with cube-shaped irises while he's eating something.

 

[Mr. Angry Pants]

I've seen way more advertisements for Gamecube than Xbox these past couple of months. Mario, Starfox--I've seen commercials for Animal Crossing alone 7 times in the past two weeks.

If any company is sitting on its hands advertising-wise, it's Microsoft. I'm actually amazed the Xbox has retained a lead after the AC/Starfox/Mario onslaught with no AAA calibur games.

 

[Teasy]

Aren't Nintendo supposed to be starting a big ad campaign soon though?.. as a lead up to Christmas. Something like $150 million for ads or something, I realise that's not as much as MS's $250 million for XBox ads, but at least its over half way there

Also I wonder how big this big announcement will be?

 

[Mr. Angry Pants]

Nintendo to purchase Microsoft! Beyond3D EXCLUSIVE!!!

 

[marconelly!]

On Canadian TV, Starfox ads are airing more than any game I've ever seen. All the MS and Sony ads combined don't come close to the airing time of SF. I've really grown tired of it, even though I don't even watch the TV a lot.

 

[bryanb]

I've seen way more advertisements for Gamecube than Xbox these past couple of months. Mario, Starfox--I've seen commercials for Animal Crossing alone 7 times in the past two weeks.

If any company is sitting on its hands advertising-wise, it's Microsoft. I'm actually amazed the Xbox has retained a lead after the AC/Starfox/Mario onslaught with no AAA calibur games.

Microsoft has been forced to sit on its hands because they don't have any big name, high selling exclusives out there.

Sure they could run general XBox ads, but the real market value of those has begun to fade away. There isn't much reward from simply pushing the XBox brand at this stage simply because it has already been established.

What they would like to do but cannot is push big name exclusives. They need to build brand names for XBox exclusives. That has always been the foundation of the gaming market. With XBox exclusive flops like Blinx, their hands are tied. They don't have any XBox exclusive brands to push.

However, the real saving grace of the XBox in September was of course Madden 2003. That game is why XBox stayed even with GC and Mario. Madden outsells Mario. The real strength of the XBox market is sports games.

Its also possible that for the XBox to control 25% of the US market, it doesn't need big name exclusives. It will maintain this control based on:

(1) Hardcore gamers favoring it for multiplatform games. Especially sports games.
(2) Large number of "good enough but not great" games. Examples: Dead to Rights, Buffy the Vampire Slayer.
(3) Microsoft's subsidizing the billion dollar a year loss product that is the XBox. Example: free XBoxes to all EB, Babbages managers. Free product tie ins.

We are really seeing a new lifeform in the gaming market that won't go away simply cause it doesn't have great games.

The only long term weakness that I see is the bad word of mouth spreading about the XBox. Eventually will its user base tire of paying 50 bucks for its exclusive titles that are just "good enough but not great"?

 

[mkillio]

I've seen way more advertisements for Gamecube than Xbox these past couple of months. Mario, Starfox--I've seen commercials for Animal Crossing alone 7 times in the past two weeks.

If any company is sitting on its hands advertising-wise, it's Microsoft. I'm actually amazed the Xbox has retained a lead after the AC/Starfox/Mario onslaught with no AAA calibur games.

I see way more XBox commercials, and of games I haven't heard much about.

I was watching TV today and I noticed that Cartoon Network gave SMS a 10/10. I'm not sure how that worked out but I'm sure it'll help some sales.

 

[Blade]

Yeah, Toonami gave SMS a 10/10. It only took 2 months for them to review that game.. meh.

I don't think it makes much of a difference though. They rewarded Morrowind with a positive 8/10 on Toonami, and it generally tanked in the sales charts. You might see a handful of people get inspired to buy after Tom's review of SMS.. maybe.

Name brand = everything.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

It's interesting to see some people put their "spin" on these numbers.

Considering that MS first party titles are rated higher than Sony's by the gaming media, it's a little ridiculous to claim that "there are no good exclusive games on Xbox". Buffy, Sega GT 2002, Blinx, and Quantum Redshift are examples of good exclusives. Upcoming there is Shenmue 2, Toejam & Earl, Splinter Cell, Mech Assault, and Unreal Championship. That's a very good holiday lineup.

These aren't "big name" and that's a drawback for MS, but remember that Halo was relatively unknown as well when the Xbox first hit the scene. Advertising can be wonderful.

Also, where did the notion of Xbox as a "sports console" come from. The top 5 selling games on Xbox are Halo, Dead or Alive 3, Project Gotham, Oddworld, and Amped. Only one of these is a sports game. Sports are just as big a part of the PS2 lineup as they are for Xbox.

Morrowind was hardly a failure. It sold 300,000 copies in the US alone. It'll probably hit 500,000 world-wide when all is said and done. That's a huge success.

It's also interesting to note that the Xbox has sold more in the US in 10 months than the Dreamcast did in 17 months. That's pretty good going into the holiday shopping season, considering that cash-strapped Sega was still debating the Dreamcast's fate given what it considered to be decent US numbers.

 

[bryanb]

Considering that MS first party titles are rated higher than Sony's by the gaming media, it's a little ridiculous to claim that "there are no good exclusive games on Xbox". Buffy, Sega GT 2002, Blinx, and Quantum Redshift are examples of good exclusives. Upcoming there is Shenmue 2, Toejam & Earl, Splinter Cell, Mech Assault, and Unreal Championship. That's a very good holiday lineup.

Some of those games are good but none are GREAT games that you can build a brand around. Quantum Redshit isn't selling well at all. Its typical of many Xbox games: great graphics and bland gameplay. And including a critical (and mostly likely a commercial) flop like Blinx is just ridiculous.

Buffy and Sega GT are decent but neither are good enough to appeal widely. Sega GT only moved 40K units in September. No wonder Sega decided to allow MS to include it in the bundle. They need to recup development costs and the game's lackluster sales are doing it.

 

[bryanb]

Also, where did the notion of Xbox as a "sports console" come from. The top 5 selling games on Xbox are Halo, Dead or Alive 3, Project Gotham, Oddworld, and Amped. Only one of these is a sports game. Sports are just as big a part of the PS2 lineup as they are for Xbox.

The notion came from the actual sales numbers. Where do you notions come from? You can find the July NPD numbers for GC, XBox and PS2 on this board.

They clearly indicate that sports games are a major component of total XBox sales.

Oddworld and Amped as 2 of the 5 top selling XBox games?

Here are some facts for you:

Madden 2002 sold 395K.
NFL Fever 2002 sold 514K.

And a non sports game that sold more than Odd World and Amped on XBox: Max Payne at 450K.

What kind of crack are you smoking?

 

[aaaaa00]

What kind of crack are you smoking?

September NPD data, lifetime to date.

xbox top 20, I count 7 sports titles: NFL Fever, Madden, Amped, THPS2X, NBA Live 2002, WWF RAW, Inside Drive 2002. The average attach rate for a sports game in the top 20 was 10.2%.

PS2 top 20, I count 7 sports titles: Madden 2002, THPS3, Madden 2001, NBA Street, WWF Smackdown. NBA Live 2002, NCAA Football 2002. The average attach rate for a sports game in the top 20 was 8.9%.

GC top 20, I count 7 sports titles: THPS3, Madden 2002, WWE WrestleMania X8, SSX Tricky, NFL Hitz, NBA Courtside, FIFA Soccer 2002. The average attach rate for a sports game in the top 20 was 8%.

I counted Nascar Thunder 2002 as a racing game, not a sports title. Likewise for Waverace. I counted the Wrestling games as sports games (but since each platform has one in the top 20, it doesn't change the ratios significantly).

So, um, what was that again? I see a slight favoring of sports game attach rates on the xbox (mostly due to NFL Fever 2002 being a launch title), but all three consoles have essentially the same ratio of sports titles in the top 20.