NPD September 2002

[duffer]

The most beliveable explanation I've heard for why Mario Sunshine's success hasn't translated into much of an increase in GameCube sales is that many of the people who wanted to play it had already bought a GameCube in anticipation.

We'll have to see how Metriod Prime does -- since it's not a traditional Nintendo-style game, it might attract new customers.

 

[iscariot]

Hey, I thought that PS2 M2003 sold around 800 000 copies

in August it sold around 950,000. With these Sept sales of 375,000 and I'm sure Oct sales doing well, its well above 1.5 million total.

 

[Teasy]

Mr. Angry Pants

Nintendo fans have become a broken record. "Just wait until... Just wait until... Just wait until... Just wait until..."

I don't recall ever saying anything about "just wait until" for the N64, so keep your generalizations to yourself. Waiting until Christmas before judging which consoles is going to come out on top is the sensible thing to do. GameCube and XBox's first U.S Christmas was only just after release and they didn't have a good lineup. This is there first U.S Christmas since getting a good lineup behind them. So obviously this Christmas is incredibly important for both of them.

As for the GC's library being superior to the Xbox, software preference is relative.

I was only saying that in his own opinion GameCube's lineup is better so surely he must think, especially with the edition of MP and Zelda, that it has a real chance of selling more then XBox at Christmas.

Also how good a game is is only relative to a degree. Any game can be liked by some people even if overall its not that good, but overall you get some games that just are better then others.

The best way to see the real quality of a game IMO is to look at gamerankings.com and see its average score, as long as the game has at least 10 reviews.

wazoo

Sales have nothing to do with a quality lineup, juste hype and marketing.

I disagree, of course game quality has something to do with hardware sales. It may not be the be all and end all, its deffinately not as PSX vs N64 and DC vs PS2 proved IMO, but it certainly has something to do with it. Also what if you have two consoles with equal hype and equal advertising, then the games alone will decide which console sells more.

Duffer

The most beliveable explanation I've heard for why Mario Sunshine's success hasn't translated into much of an increase in GameCube sales is that many of the people who wanted to play it had already bought a GameCube in anticipation.

Also allot of people who haven't yet got a GameCube but want SMS will not get a GameCube in late August to September, its too close to Christmas, so they'll wait and get a GameCube + SMS bundle at Christmas.

 

[wazoo]

wazoo

Sales have nothing to do with a quality lineup, juste hype and marketing.

I disagree, of course game quality has something to do with hardware sales. It may not be the be all and end all, its deffinately not as PSX vs N64 and DC vs PS2 proved IMO, but it certainly has something to do with it. Also what if you have two consoles with equal hype and equal advertising, then the games alone will decide which console sells more.

But you need to "have two consoles with equal hype and equal advertising", which is clearly not the case for xbox/Gc comparison.

 

[Teasy]

But you need to "have two consoles with equal hype and equal advertising", which is clearly not the case for xbox/Gc comparison.

That was just an example of a case were the game lineup would be the only deciding factor. Even with consoles that have differing hype and ad quality the games still matter. The importance of the quality of the games does lessen the better the ads and the more one console it hyped of course. For instance PS2 vs DC, but XBox vs GameCube is a very different matter, they will be a hell of allot closer on hype/advertising this christmas.

In the end games do matter, there not all important sadely, but they do matter.

If you just mean that a console with loads of advertising/hype and only good games will sell more consoles then a console with little advertising/hype and great games, then yeah I agree, its a sad fact but true.

 

[Goldni]

Interestingsales for sure. XB and GC seem almost tied together with a chain the past few months. When one goes up they both do and vice versa. IMO Oct will see the Cube just nudge ahead in sales for the first time since April. The reason is the SMS bundle that just sen on sale Oct 14th and the Platinum GCN that comes out Mon the 21st of Oct. Also with any advertising at all the GCN will be ahead Oct Nov and Dec. By Jan the two machines will be about 200,000 units apart with the XB in the slight lead going into 2003. IMO of course!

 

[Eminem]

Last year, they had the excuse of supply shortages. If they do not sell more this year, it will have proven something, GC is not kiddy

Somewhat flawed logic considering kids don't neccesarily have to like a product that is kiddy.

We could say that GC isn't apealing to its presumed target audience, however this statement, and yours, is under the presumption that more kids (6-12) receive or buy a game console than teens (13-18) do.

 

[Glonk]

Interestingsales for sure. XB and GC seem almost tied together with a chain the past few months. When one goes up they both do and vice versa. IMO Oct will see the Cube just nudge ahead in sales for the first time since April. The reason is the SMS bundle that just sen on sale Oct 14th and the Platinum GCN that comes out Mon the 21st of Oct. Also with any advertising at all the GCN will be ahead Oct Nov and Dec. By Jan the two machines will be about 200,000 units apart with the XB in the slight lead going into 2003. IMO of course!

The SMS bundle will sell for $179.99, will it not? And in today's mass-market gaming industry, Mario isn't all that appealing to most people. As said before, most people who cared for Mario already had a Gamecube.

Nintendo's Gamecube + SMS bundle for $179.99 isn't much competition for the Xbox + SegaGT + JSRF bundle for $199.99, especially when the parents buying it for their kids are told that the Xbox ships with the harddrive and ethernet that are "coming soon" for more money on the Gamecube...

2 games, less hardware addons in the future == more sales in the eyes of parents.

 

[Blade]

Glonk: Nevermind the extra controller that the Xbox bundle comes with.

 

[BenSkywalker]

I'm pretty sure that NPD numbers (that Ozy is quoting) include Wal-Mart. It's Boston Credit Suisse that doesn't.. and Wal-Mart is one of Nintendo's biggest retailers.

CSFB and Reuters both use NPD numbers, Wal-Mart doesn't report their gaming sales to anyone.

The biggest surprise I see with these numbers is the edge that Sony holds. The numbers we will see for October are going to be screwed up, with the dock lock out on the west coast in the US it should favor Sony heavily although I wouldn't be surprised if they ran into supply issues also(Sony tends to have two to three times the amount of consoles in the pipe which should have isolated them a bit better from the short term issues).

November is where the major spikes should occur for all platforms(this is the norm any year, the dock lock out could amplify it this year however). XBox's bundle offer should make it a very enticing offering for those picking up a console for a gift, including two free games one of which is widely considered the best racing title on the XBox should help them out. Nintendo's bundle with Mario and a memory card for $179 doesn't stack up well against MS's, but it should certainly appear to be quite a bit better value then the PS2 barring a Sony announcement of a bundle. November should be a very interesting month. Of course, Sony has GTA Vice coming which could help boost them(speaking hardware), although from a hardware sales perspective it remains to be seen how many of those interested in the title don't already own a PS2 w/GTA3.

As of right now the XBox should have ~800K lead in the US over the Cube with the PS2 far in front of both of course(it should be right around ten million ahead of the GC+XB in the US). The most interesting thing from my perspective this holiday season is if Sony is going to hold the majority of sales or if they will drop to plurality(I think it will be close either way, although the two bundle packages they are facing this year has me leaning towards falling to plurality by end of December).

 

[Glonk]

Glonk: Nevermind the extra controller that the Xbox bundle comes with.

It comes with an extra controller?

I thought they just replaced the regular controller with Controller-S?

 

[zurich]

THey did

 

[marconelly!]

I thought they just replaced the regular controller with Controller-S?

I believe that's what they are doing. No extra controller, just the big one replaced with the smaller one.

 

[Teasy]

The SMS bundle will sell for $179.99, will it not? And in today's mass-market gaming industry, Mario isn't all that appealing to most people. As said before, most people who cared for Mario already had a Gamecube.

How can you have made up your mind on that already? Allot of people waiting for SMS to get a GameCube won't be able to get it in Setptember because its to close to Christmas.

Take kids for instance, they can't just buy this for themselves. Also they can't just say to their parents "hey, buy me a GameCube and SMS" in September, if they want something at this time on the year its bought for them at Christmas.

Also not just kids either, how many people will go out and buy something for $199 (GameCube and SMS) a few months before Christmas, even adults wanting it would likely buy it for themselves at Christmas, likely waiting for the SMS+GameCube bundle.

Nintendo's Gamecube + SMS bundle for $179.99 isn't much competition for the Xbox + SegaGT + JSRF bundle for $199.99

I wouldn't bet on it, Sega GT and JSRF are two good games but not AAA games and certainly not known by parents or wanted by kids. They're pretty much nameless brands appart from the Sega in Sega GT. Mario is a big famous brand and one a parent can be sure will satisfy his/her kids.

especially when the parents buying it for their kids are told that the Xbox ships with the harddrive and ethernet that are "coming soon" for more money on the Gamecube...

Parents buying a console for there kids don't care about hard drives and ethernet... they want something that plays fun games, that's it.

Ben

As of right now the XBox should have ~800K lead in the US over the Cube

Hmm, where do you get that number? I thought everyone agreed it was 500,000, since then both XBox and GameCube have sold the same in the U.S so I'd assume its still 500,000.

 

[Mr. Angry Pants]

Adults will not wait 3 months to buy themselves a game as a Christmas gift if they can get it right now...

You don't work, do you? Yeah. You see that's one of the perks of having a job that pays you cash money which you can spend on whatever you want whenever you want.

If there are a couple million kids chomping at the bit to have Mario this Christmas, great. But I believe the best of Mario's stand-alone sales have already passed us.

 

[Teasy]

Adults will not wait 3 months to buy themselves a game as a Christmas gift if they can get it right now...

You obviously didn't really read my post at all.

I said:

Allot of people waiting for SMS to get a GameCube won't be able to get it in Setptember because its to close to Christmas

I'm not talking about buying the game by itself. Of course any adult can afford that, I'm not even working at the moment (at college) and even I could afford to buy the game this close to Christmas.

I'm talking about people who were waiting for Mario to buy a GameCube. As in Mario's effect on console sales.

Even someone who works won't usually go out and spend $220 or so for a GameCube + SMS + mem card (that's what it would cost now since the bundle isn't out yet) just a few months before Christmas. Most people would buy it for themselves for Christmas.

 

[Mr. Angry Pants]

$250 isn't much to ask of anyone who hasn't bogged themselves down in debt.

 

[Teasy]

$250 isn't much to ask of anyone who hasn't bogged themselves down in debt.

Some people will be able to buy a GameCube + SMS in late August to early September yeah. But most of those people will already have gotten the console because they can spend money willy nilly anyway. Allot of people don't have that much money even if there working, for whatever reason.

Maybe they're in debt, they'll get themselves something nice for Christmas because its Christmas but they just can't justify spending that sort of money at this time of the year. Maybe there parents themselves and have the problem of buying loads of presents for the kids looming, again they've budgeted for a present for themselves/each other for Christmas and if they spend it now they'll have nothing at Christmas, so they'll wait until Christmas to get there GameCube + SMS bundle.

I just think that SMS will sell more consoles at Christmas. But then I suppose its going to be hard to know if it sells consoles or not as sales will sky rocket for Christmas anyway and there will be allot of great games out there at Christmas to sell consoles (Metroid Prime and Zelda for instance).

Lets sit back and watch what happens at Christmas anyway, it should be interesting.

 

[BenSkywalker]

Darren-

NPD only reports ~60% of total sales. They are trailing by ~500K looking at only 60% of sales so they are likely trailing by ~800K in absolute numbers. Look at Johnny's adjusted numbers, they should be pretty close to what the market looked like at the end of September in the US.

 

[Teasy]

Ben

Oh right I see, not 100% accurate of course but fair enough. So the current U.S market share looks like this (assumeing that the official numbers are only 65% of the true numbers).

PS2 = 69%
XBox = 17%
GameCube = 14%

It'll be interesting to compare those figures after Christmas and see how they change.