NPD November 2017

[chris1515]

I am not discrediting the PS4 when I give the Switch props for its success. Sony has crushed it this generation. Sony nailed it, and has been and will remain the market leader for the remainder of the generation. With that said, a manufacture can sell less units and still be very successful. Japan may not be a huge percentage of the global market, but it is a huge market just the same. Sony is and has been doing well in Japan, so when I say Switch is selling five times as many Switch units, it isn't to slight Sony, but to show just how well Nintendo is doing in their homeland.

Sony's CEO just recently commented on how they shouldn't ignore the success of the Switch. Just because Sony is the market leader doesn't mean there is no competition. Even a two to one ratio is pretty aggressive competition. I am pretty sure Sony feels like the 30+ million Xbox One units sold felt like competition. Why? Because if it weren't a thing Sony would have sold a boat load more units than they already have.

No one is clinging to anything, but we only have so much info available to us. We must extrapolate the data available to us and make some reasonable conclusions. When I look at the available data and see Nintendo killing it in Japan, and then also taking the top spot in the NPD charts for multiple months in 2017, it brings a positive vibe surrounding the Switch platform.

Sony and Nintendo aren't competing, the market is really different not the same type of gamer. Sony competition is the Xbox division..

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Well, when it comes to consumer dollars, everyone's competing with everyone. Sony are competing with Apple (do I get a PS4 or an iPhone), holidays (do I get a 4Pro or go to the Bahamas), etc. And though not competing directly for the same type of device, they are serving the same role of computer gaming and consumers are typically making choices to get a PS4 or a NSW. In Japan, that choice is very much in favour of NSW, with many, many Yens going to Nintendo and Sony looking on wondering how they can get those Yens to come to them.

 

[Rangers]

Zhuge (who has access to all the numbers I believe) stated PS4 sold double what it did on Nov 2014. I have PS4 at 831k in Nov 14. However, my November 2014 PS4 numbers, was a "derived from pie chart" number. Still, that would put the PS4 at ~1.66 million sold. Maybe more reliable to say a range of 1.55-1.75 given the uncertainty in the Nov 14 number.

We could probably use it as as decent a PS4 estimate as we might get for Nov pending anything better, ~1.66 million.

If we then took the other info supposedly from a graph from a report that was based on NPD (Xbox 90% of PS4 and Switch 50% of PS4, also eyeballed and not precise percentage figures), we might get ~1.49 for Xbox (maybe say 1.5) and ~830k for Switch (again a little dubious doing such precise estimates but anyway)

 

[Rangers]

Evidently Xbox One X sold 430,000 in November. From John Harker at reset era. Although he confused me a bit.

Yea, was a good month.
Both PS4 and Xbox one had their best months ever. Xbox one x sold over 65% higher than PS4 pro did, in just over a week doing over 430k units is impressive as I see it, given the price point. Their simple, direct messaging around what the system offers appears pretty effective so far. And switch being up over 2.5x from October without any promotions to drive that is also strong indicators of demand and growth

What I dont understand is the "in just over a week" part. X launched Nov 7, and NPD Nov should have covered til the end of the month. Maybe he misspoke, no one on resetera has mentioned it so maybe I'm missing something. Or maybe he means cause X sold out after a week? I dont remember if it did.

Also Harker says Xbox and PS had best months ever where NPD just called out PS as best month ever, and X only best Nov ever. Another (possible) discrepancy.

 

[djskribbles]

Predicted 450K for XB1X, so was pretty close. I underestimated how well the PS4 Slim and XB1S would do, though.

 

[BRiT]

IIRC, November NPD does not cover Cyber Monday so its not the full month, just 4 weeks.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

What I dont understand is the "in just over a week" part. X launched Nov 7, and NPD Nov should have covered til the end of the month. Maybe he misspoke, no one on resetera has mentioned it so maybe I'm missing something. Or maybe he means cause X sold out after a week? I dont remember if it did.

I, and I think most, have read this as Xbox One X having outsold PS4 Pro by 65% at launch before stock sold out. Its clear Sony underestimated the demand for Pro - by the fact if was out of stock for several weeks - and Microsoft had ample stock - by the fact that had more stock initially and it was back in stock after launch within a week of having initially sold out.

What can you read into this? Absolutely nothing based on the information available publicly. What was the relative demand? Unknown. How much stock was available? Also unknown.

 

[BRiT]

NPD November 2017 results from ZHuge @ ResetEra https://www.resetera.com/threads/npd-november-2017-call-of-duty-ww2-1-sw-ps4-1-hw.11227/

Overall Software Rankings

1. Call of Duty: WWII
2. Star Wars: Battlefront II
3. Assassin’s Creed: Origins
4. NBA 2K18
5. Madden NFL 18
6. Super Mario Odyssey*
7. FIFA 18
8. Need for Speed: Payback
9. Destiny 2**
10. Pokémon: Ultra Sun*
11. Pokémon: Ultra Moon*
12. Middle-earth: Shadow of War
13. Grand Theft Auto V
14. The Sims 4
15. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
16. Mario Kart 8*
17. Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus*
18. South Park: The Fractured But Whole
19. WWE 2K18
20. Just Dance 2018

* No digital sales
** No Battle.net sales

Xbox One

1. Call of Duty: WWII
2. Star Wars: Battlefront II
3. Assassin’s Creed: Origins
4. NBA 2K18
5. Madden NFL 18
6. FIFA 18
7. Need for Speed: Payback
8. Destiny 2
9. Forza Motorsport 7
10. Middle-earth: Shadow of War

PlayStation 4

1. Call of Duty: WWII
2. Star Wars: Battlefront II
3. Assassin’s Creed: Origins
4. NBA 2K18
5. Madden NFL 18
6. FIFA 18
7. Need for Speed: Payback
8. Destiny 2
9. Grand Theft Auto V
10. Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus*

Nintendo Switch*

1. Super Mario Odyssey
2. Mario Kart 8
3. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
4. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
5. Splatoon 2
6. Mario & Rabbids: Kingdom Battle
7. Sonic Forces
8. Doom 2016
9. Pokken Tournament DX
10. Just Dance 2018

The best-selling games of 2017 so far

1. Call of Duty: WWII
2. Destiny 2**
3. NBA 2K18
4. Madden NFL 18
5. Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon: Wildlands
6. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
7. Grand Theft Auto V
8. For Honor
9. Injustice 2
10. Horizon Zero Dawn

The best-selling games over the last 12 months

1. Call of Duty: WWII
2. Destiny 2**
3. NBA 2K18
4. Madden NFL 18
5. Grand Theft Auto V
6. Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare
7. Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon: Wildlands
8. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
9. NBA 2K17
10. Final Fantasy XV

 

[BRiT]

Hardware

Hardware spending in November 2017 grew 52 percent when compared to year ago, to $1.1B. Spending growth was driven by Nintendo Switch, Microsoft's Xbox One and Sony's PlayStation 4.

Sony's PlayStation 4 sold the most units of any hardware platform in the month of November, while Microsoft's Xbox One drove the highest dollar sales of any hardware platform during the month.

More units of PlayStation 4 hardware sold in November 2017 than any other month life to date. PlayStation 4 is the best-selling video game hardware platform year to date.

Xbox One hardware generated its highest unit sales tally of any November month life to date.

 

[DrJay24]

I'm not sure how Sony did it. They were sold out more or less before BF. MS had sub-$200 deals until the end of the month.

 

[zed]

I'm not sure how Sony did it. They were sold out more or less before BF.

hmmm, dunno perhaps cause they were ..... sold out.
Which sort of suggests to me that demand was larger than they thought

 

[BRiT]

I'm not sure how Sony did it. They were sold out more or less before BF. MS had sub-$200 deals until the end of the month.

Maybe Sony bought their own consoles.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

So, some things that I personally found interesting.

Skyrim was the 4th best selling Switch title (when not accounting for digital). If you include digital sales, it is entirely possible it would have ended up in the top 20 of NPD. I find that remarkable. Also, Doom is the 8th best selling Switch title for the month. Wish we still got numbers with NPD.

This is encouraging as it appears that 3rd party IP are doing well on the Switch. Relatively speaking, they may be doing significantly better than they did on the Wii.

COD is still a monster. Released Nov. 03 and it is already the best selling title of all of 2017. Could Destiny 2 with the addition of PC sales challenge it? Probably not.

To put into perspective the gap between it and Star Wars: Battlefront 2. SW: BF2 was 2nd for the month and doesn't even chart for the top 10 of 2017. Granted it didn't release until Nov. 17th so it still has a chance to chart for the year depending on whether sales continue or has been permanently damaged due to all the shenanigans that EA has tried to pull with it.

Regards,
SB

 

[dobwal]

hmmm, dunno perhaps cause they were ..... sold out.
Which sort of suggests to me that demand was larger than they thought

Or they simply sold however many they were comfortable selling at $199. It's not like there aren't any more units to sell over the holidays. Amazon has gotten more supply since BF but not at the $199 price point.

There seems to be a ton of demand at >$200 price point so $199 limited stock may have been a way to drive unit sales without completely giving up the higher margins of the higher price points.

 

[Rangers]

COD is still a monster. Released Nov. 03 and it is already the best selling title of all of 2017

This one really exploded though after the franchise had a long but unmistakable decline in sales. Why? I dont know, I guess people really wanted to go back to WW2.

 

[Goodtwin]

Skyrim was the 4th best selling Switch title (when not accounting for digital). If you include digital sales, it is entirely possible it would have ended up in the top 20 of NPD. I find that remarkable. Also, Doom is the 8th best selling Switch title for the month. Wish we still got numbers with NPD.

I think Skyrim is doing very well. It is still charting on the eshop, and has been hanging around that #30 spot on Amazon while Doom has fallen out of the top 100 for a few weeks now. I think sales for Doom will be pretty modest compared to Skyrim. Skyrim has a good chance of selling a million copies, but Doom will likely end up selling a few hundred thousand copies. Not terrible for a late port that was full price, but not really making a great statement for more of these types of games on the platform. Bethesda has already stated that Panic Button is working on Wolfenstein 2, so that one is a lock, but if that one doesnt do any better I have a feeling developers will be skeptical for shooters doing well on the platform.

 

[Sigfried1977]

This one really exploded though after the franchise had a long but unmistakable decline in sales. Why? I dont know, I guess people really wanted to go back to WW2.

Such a bummer. I really liked Infinite Warfare

 

[Sigfried1977]

I think Skyrim is doing very well. It is still charting on the eshop, and has been hanging around that #30 spot on Amazon while Doom has fallen out of the top 100 for a few weeks now. I think sales for Doom will be pretty modest compared to Skyrim. Skyrim has a good chance of selling a million copies, but Doom will likely end up selling a few hundred thousand copies. Not terrible for a late port that was full price, but not really making a great statement for more of these types of games on the platform. Bethesda has already stated that Panic Button is working on Wolfenstein 2, so that one is a lock, but if that one doesnt do any better I have a feeling developers will be skeptical for shooters doing well on the platform.

Well, eventually folks probably got over their emotional they-made-it-work-on-Switch response and came to realize that there's a bit more to a decent port than simply getting something to run. Doom on the Switch is not a Killzone Mercenaries type of achievement at all.

 

[Goodtwin]

Well, eventually folks probably got over their emotional they-made-it-work-on-Switch response and came to realize that there's a bit more to a decent port than simply getting something to load. Doom on the Switch is not a Killzone Mercenaries type of achievement at all.

I have over 45 hours of playing Doom on Switch, and it is certainly a competent port. For a game that was considered a technical showpiece in 2016 for the PS4 and X1, getting a perfectly playable version of the game running on Switch is something to applaud. With that said, if you have a PS4/X1/PC, they have the cheaper and superior version of the game. The only variable is if you want to play on the go. As for Killzone Mercenaries, it was a ground up exclusive for Vita, Doom is a port, and thus didnt benefit from being built from the ground up for the hardware.

 

[Rangers]

The last estimate I saw an Resetera (granted from a somewhat random poster) was PS4=1650k, Xbox=1350k, Switch=850k

Can someone help me to understand this, specifically it seems they would lowball the Xbox estimate by 100-200k.


Here's the method of arriving at the numbers as I understood it

A leaked NPD report from a security firm showed a graph, which a poster who had seen it described as showing Xbox about 10% less than PS4, and Switch about half of PS4. But he just eyeballed it so, not precise apparently.
This leak also used some YoY percentage increases, which where then used to derive some raw numbers. However it then turned out the November 16 numbers we were using were slightly off (according to people with knowledge of NPD). A more accurate estimate was derived when Zhuge stated PS4 sales were double it's sales in Nov 14, which resetera had at 826k (I had it at 831 for whatever reason).

So that put the PS4 number at about 1.65 million. Then at 10% less Xbox would be about 1.5 million, and at half Switch would be at ~825k.

We also had some other confusion, NPD stated PS4 had it's best month ever, which set a lower bound. They stated Xbox had it's best November ever, which by omission people took to Xbox did NOT have it's best month ever. So you could set a upper bound for Xbox at it's best month ever, which was 1.511 million IIRC. Which still fits, although barely, with the 1.5 Xbox estimate for Nov. However even another complicating factor was John Harker, a poster with NPD access, stated both PS4 and Xbox had best months ever. When asked to clarify that Xbox indeed had it's best month ever and not just best Nov ever, he didn't reply (pretty normal for anybody giving info at NPD as they never want to get detailed).

However I guess all that's kind of irrelevant, but Xbox should be maybe conservatively estimated at 1.45 million by my thinking (~10% less than PS4 per graph, but a possible upper bound of 1.511 means I take 50k off)

So yeah just thought I'd post all that to ask if anybody has any contrary info as to why Xbox is at 1350k and not 1450-1500k. I wrote Xbox at 1350k so far in my NPD record, but I'll probably change it to 1450k or 1500k at some point unless I hear justification for 1350k. Just wondered if I missed something?