Johnny-
The reason I'm doing this is because it's pretty clear that SMS isn't going to have the same shelf-life that Mario64 did. People are already returning it to stores for credit and so on. This will cut into sales.
The major factor cutting in to sales is going to be the bundle package. As long as the bundle package keeps going, I would expect SMS to easily surpass SM64's sales.
Ben, I could believe 3 million by the end of 2002, but I still think it's going to have a tough time breaking 5 million. It might though, due to the lack of compelling Cube software.
The current issue of EGM has a poll on which platform had the best games in 2002(page 73). GBA has 1%, XBox 10%, PS2 24% and GameCube 65%. That was an online poll taken from Gamers.com.
I'm not sure what you mean by lack of compelling software, for who exactly? The older demographic? ED, RE, RE0, TS2, MK
A, 007 and MOH that are out now with SplinterCell, TrueCrime and Killer07 right around the corner(to list a few that either are held in high regard or look like they will be). I don't think anyone would argue against that they have plenty of titles covering a wider audience. Which demographic are they missing compelling titles for? They have plenty of sports titles, titles aimed squarely at the older demographic and plenty of titles for the younger audience(Harry Potter etc). Just looking at the next few months they have FZero, OoT, Celda and SkiesOfArcadia coming. I'm not seeing the lack of compelling software. At this point they should have roughly half a dozen million unit sold titles world wide(SSBM, SMS, AC, SFA, Sonic, Metroid).
Actually, that list confirms that 3rd party software fairs relatively poorly on the Gamecube, expecially bigger titles like Madden, NFL2K3, Timeplitters 2, Mortal Kombat, and so on.
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This will probably affect development on the platform somewhat. Probably why there aren't any good driving or fighting games on the Cube, for instance.
Taking them in order, Madden has grossed ~$5Million on the Cube, NFL2K3 ~$1.2Million, TS2 ~$3.9Million, MK
A ~$2.7Million- which one do you think didn't turn a profit? Considering they are all ports, it's likely all of them made significant profit for the publishers. Given the reduced investment in time and resources a port takes, I don't see why you would assume that those titles spell trouble for Cube third party support. If you look at other titles like the two Bond games and Turok you see that third party titles aimed at an older demographic can sell on pretty much equal footing with their XBox counterparts.
Clashman]/b]-
Thanks for breaking it down like that, much appreciated.
