NPD July 2007

[DeadlyNinja]

The Wii outsold the DS!?!?!? WTF?

Oh and to people saying 3rd party games don't sell on Wii... This is according to IGN.

Also notable on the Wii front is that Mario Strikers Charged debuted in the month with more than 100,000 in sales and Resident Evil 4 pulled in another 90,000 or so gamers. The survival-horror port has sold upward of 250,000 units since its release in America.

RE4, a port of a 2 year old game, is about the beat Capcom's own sales expectations.

When 3rd parties actually come up with something worth buying, people will buy it. Really, what 3rd party game you can think of off the top of your head that's worth buying for the Wii during July? I can't think of any.

Also, I think everyone here is overlooking one very important aspect about the 360. They should tell MS to give 3rd parties more money to prevent their games from going to PC. Really, I can't think of one 360 that I like that I can't find on PC. What's the point of buying the system when I can get a superior version on the PC? A simple 150 video card will easily out perform the 360, and if I spend as much on a video card as buying an Elite 360, I can get a card that'll outperform any console for years to come. Yeah, there are the timed exclusives, but who cares. I have plenty of other games to keep me busy till Gears comes out on PC. There's no need to rush out and buy a 360 for it. I understand there are still some 100% 360 exclusives, but those are usually Japanese games/RPGs that I don't care about.

 

[liolio]

I'm not really sure on Canada but I think it's like 400,000.

Vgchartz used to claim to try to predict 10% over NPD, because they claimed NPD was too conservative, but I dunno, 6.45m isn't overpredicting by much (if NPD US+Canada~6.3) (especially with a couple extra weeks in there).

Thanks again, so at last I changed my mind, VGchart figures at least give a good overall idea of what is going on minus some minor biais.

 

[_xxx_]

DeadlyNinja: RE4 may be 2 years old, but it truly rocks on Wii. Mucho Fun.

 

[infinity4]

X360 may not be outselling Original Xbox but looking at software development deals (ie stealing exclusive games) X360 do have good future. And remember this sale is without GTA IV and Halo 3.

 

[DeadlyNinja]

I know. I wasn't saying the game blows, I was saying look at what happens when you release a GOOD 3RD PARTY GAME on the Wii. Again, it's 2 years old and is set to beat Capcom's expectations. Capcom predicted something like 420K WW by March 2008, and by August, RE4 is at 360K WW. We don't even have the European numbers yet.

 

[scooby_dooby]

From a historic position the Xbox 360 is trending toward a 2nd/3rd place console in regards to market share.

It certainly looks that way, though I would argue it's a big mistake to assume the Wii, PS3 and 360 sales trends will continue the status quo for the next 5 years.

First, neither 360 or PS3 have hit their sweetspot yet in terms of pricing, and game library.

And secondly, the Wii is still riding it's primetime, social phenomenon status, which can not last forever. I just don't believe there are that many casual gamers out there, and that the novelty will wear off.

Now, even IF I'm completely wrong, Wii sells 100million+ units, that will essentially split the market, creating 2 markets.

There will be the high-end big budget titles, which will be shared between both 360 and PS3, and then there will be the Wii titles.

So, in a way, 360 vs PS3 is not so much a battle for second place, as it is a battle for leadership in the hardcore/traditional gamer space. As you pointed out, despite the fantastic Wii sales, where are the games being sold?? 360. This trend indicates that despite having lower install bases, 360 and PS3 will be the consoles that move teh most 3rd party software, and certainly the majority of cutting edge games will be on those systems.

This is a signifigantly different than any other previous generations, there has never been one console so drastically different than the others, both in terms of technical ability, target audience and software attach rate. So I think it becomes a little more complicated than saying Console X is #1, Console B is #2 etc

In the past, the greatest install base = the most 3rd party games = the highest software sales. Now, that's no longer necessarily the case, this is a historically unique scenario.

I agree with you analysis on teh most part, MS has certainly botched most of 2007, though I do have a more positive outlook for the PS3. I think it's first party studios WILL bail them out, and that on the strength of European sales, they will be neck and neck with the 360 at the end of the day.

I see Wii sales slowing down signifigantly within a year or two, however even if they don't, I still don't see the Wii being the #1 console in terms of software sold, simply because of the target audience, who has already proven they are very conservative when it comes to purchasing games.

p.s. Welcome back buddy, it's good to have your posts again to spark some interesting debate. It's been sorely missing I must saY...

 

[dobwal]

Halo has never sparked massive Xbox sales in the past.

In fact, it could be argued a particular game never does with any system.

It seems games in the aggregate do. What stimulates sales directly is price cuts.

Look at Xbox 1 US Christmas sales the year that Halo 2 launch and you will see it had a big effect on sales, which rivaled PS2 sales that year.

 

[thatdude90210]

Something else that should be troubling Sony, besides being beaten by the 360 even after the first price cut, are those NCAA football numbers. The 360 version sold more than the PS2 & PS3 versions combined.

That could be an indicator that sports gamers, a highly desired group who buys the same frickin' game every year, for the most part aren't still playing their PS2 while waiting to upgrade to the PS3. They've already moved on to the xbox 360.

Now we'll just have to see if that holds true after Madden.

 

[Teasy]

I think the major issue is that game publishers and developers still have not caught on to the audience the Wii has

The problem is that its taken until recently for most publishers to realise that Wii isn't something that's going to fade away. Its not a case of developers not producing the right games IMO, its a case of a major lack of any decent games at all from most developers. Of course with most of them now finally realising that Wii sales aren't just going to stop due to "teh bestest grafix eva!! on PS3 or 360" support has been moved to Wii in spades and the games will come. But it'll take at least another 6 to 9 months until we start to see these third party games. Until then its up to Nintendo to keep people interested, which they should manage pretty well with Metroid Prime, Mario Galaxy and Smash Brothers all coming out in the next few months.

Those expecting Wii to continue to sell and dominate hardware but not get third party support are living in the same fantasy world as the people who thought its sales would just suddenly slow down. As many third party developers have already made clear, major resources continue to be moved to Wii. The games will come and even these anecdotal people who only bought the system for one game will see ads for games tha catch there eye and start buying.

 

[expletive]

The wii software sales give me the impression that a lot of people 'have to have one' but arent really becoming gamers, and may not consume software at the rate that such an installed base historically produces. I cant even take wii play in the top 10 seriously since i look at that as a peripheral purchase instead of a game purchase.

 

[Natoma]

First, neither 360 or PS3 have hit their sweetspot yet in terms of pricing, and game library.

The 360 has a big problem with its library, and I'm not sure it'll ever be resolved. Most of its games seem PC-dominated and have very little in the way of variety. PS3 otoh seems to have a lot of the games you'd expect from consoles (LBP for example), but the price is just obscene.

That said, neither of those issues are easily resolvable for either system. If publishers see that 3rd person shooters sell x # of copies on the 360, then they'll release derivatives of those games, as we've seen.

For a system like Wii, which has been getting games from every category, that presents the library with a greater opportunity for freshness in the long run imo.

And secondly, the Wii is still riding it's primetime, social phenomenon status, which can not last forever. I just don't believe there are that many casual gamers out there, and that the novelty will wear off.

Now, even IF I'm completely wrong, Wii sells 100million+ units, that will essentially split the market, creating 2 markets.

I disagree. How do you think the PS1 and PS2 sold over 100million units? Certainly wasn't the 'hardcore' market that propelled them to those heights.

They certainly didn't split the market.

There will be the high-end big budget titles, which will be shared between both 360 and PS3, and then there will be the Wii titles.

So, in a way, 360 vs PS3 is not so much a battle for second place, as it is a battle for leadership in the hardcore/traditional gamer space.

I disagree with this sentiment. Are Metroid Prime 3, Mario Galaxy, and SSBB, to name a few, not high end? "Big budget" does not equal quality per se.

As you pointed out, despite the fantastic Wii sales, where are the games being sold?? 360. This trend indicates that despite having lower install bases, 360 and PS3 will be the consoles that move teh most 3rd party software, and certainly the majority of cutting edge games will be on those systems.

This is a signifigantly different than any other previous generations, there has never been one console so drastically different than the others, both in terms of technical ability, target audience and software attach rate. So I think it becomes a little more complicated than saying Console X is #1, Console B is #2 etc.

However as we've seen, quality titles on the Wii have sold quite well. As 3rd parties put out titles that use the Wii's capabilities, their sales will increase.

As for target audience, Nintendo has stated that their goal is to target everyone. The fact that they've marketed toward casuals doesn't change the fact that there is still a substantial hardcore market out there that Nintendo is catering to. It's just that no videogame company has deliberately gone out of its way to attract typically "non-gamers" to the market. They've merely attracted "non-gamers" through osmosis of a large library and cheap price (see PS1 and PS2 for example).

As for attach rate, Nintendo's roughly selling 4 titles per console, as per their last financial statement. That's barely lower than the 360's attach rate of 4.5-5, and higher than PS3 which is around 2-3 I believe.

That leaves only system hardware/graphics capabilities as a reason. That may very well turn out to be true, but I'll be tied to a tree if anyone says that Mario Galaxy doesn't look beautiful, or MP3, or SSBB. Are they Gears of War? No. But they're not fugly either.

I agree with you analysis on teh most part, MS has certainly botched most of 2007, though I do have a more positive outlook for the PS3. I think it's first party studios WILL bail them out, and that on the strength of European sales, they will be neck and neck with the 360 at the end of the day.

In order for PS3 to be neck and neck with 360, they have to almost double their sales, and quickly. By all accounts, they had a great July, and yet they were still outsold by the 360. They have no hope to catch Microsoft if this is the best they can do.

I see Wii sales slowing down signifigantly within a year or two, however even if they don't, I still don't see the Wii being the #1 console in terms of software sold, simply because of the target audience, who has already proven they are very conservative when it comes to purchasing games.

See above regarding attach rates. That's just not true.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Those expecting Wii to continue to sell and dominate hardware but not get third party support (NRP, iceberg187...) are living in the same fantasy world as the people who thought its sales would just suddenly slow down.

They'll get support, it'll just be different support than the 360 and PS3 get.

Lower budget, shorter, more casual DS like games.

 

[scooby_dooby]

The 360 has a big problem with its library, and I'm not sure it'll ever be resolved. Most of its games seem PC-dominated and have very little in the way of variety. PS3 otoh seems to have a lot of the games you'd expect from consoles (LBP for example), but the price is just obscene.

That said, neither of those issues are easily resolvable for either system. If publishers see that 3rd person shooters sell x # of copies on the 360, then they'll release derivatives of those games, as we've seen.

For a system like Wii, which has been getting games from every category, that presents the library with a greater opportunity for freshness in the long run imo.

The 360 has absolutely no problem with it's library. It has almost complete support from all 3rd party studios, and saying 'most' of it's titles are PC like is factually incorrect. Only a small percentage of it's titles are even FPS (like 15% I believe), so unless you're referring to the two RTS games on the system, I'm not sure what you're talking about.

I disagree. How do you think the PS1 and PS2 sold over 100million units? Certainly wasn't the 'hardcore' market that propelled them to those heights.

They certainly didn't split the market.

I said hardcore/traditionalgamers.
Sorry, but the people loving Wii sports, and Raving Rabbits are not the same people who loved Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy and Grand Theft Auto.

And Wii is selling on the strengths of these sorts of titles, Boxing, Bowling, Tennis, Raving Rabbits, etc etc. Not some mass anticipation for Super Mario, or Metroid.

I disagree with this sentiment. Are Metroid Prime 3, Mario Galaxy, and SSBB, to name a few, not high end? "Big budget" does not equal quality per se.

These are first party. I was talking about 3rd party titles.

How can you even pretend to debate this point?? The games with cutting edge graphics, and huge art budgets will be on the 360/PS3.

This is one advantage of developing for Wii, they can keep the costs down.

However as we've seen, quality titles on the Wii have sold quite well. As 3rd parties put out titles that use the Wii's capabilities, their sales will increase.

Yet nowhere NEAR as good as the same titles on 360.

As for attach rate, Nintendo's roughly selling 4 titles per console, as per their last financial statement. That's barely lower than the 360's attach rate of 4.5-5, and higher than PS3 which is around 2-3 I believe.

And it's dominated by 1st party titles. This only bolsters my argument.

In order for PS3 to be neck and neck with 360, they have to almost double their sales, and quickly. By all accounts, they had a great July, and yet they were still outsold by the 360. They have no hope to catch Microsoft if this is the best they can do.

Why in the world would their sales at $500 be the 'best they can do'?

Far from it.

 

[Teasy]

The wii software sales give me the impression that a lot of people 'have to have one' but arent really becoming gamers, and may not consume software at the rate that such an installed base historically produces. I cant even take wii play in the top 10 seriously since i look at that as a peripheral purchase instead of a game purchase.

Or that a major section of Wii's userbase are waiting for some good games to buy? Me included.. I 'just had to have one' even though I knew I'd have to wait a while for a good supply of games.

They'll get support, it'll just be different support than the 360 and PS3 get.

Lower budget, shorter, more casual DS like games.

It'll get support of all kinds, its inevitable as the userbase continues to grow.

 

[dobwal]

It most certainly is.

Of course, next months numbers have a high probability of reversing this trend, at least for the polynomial regression line.

Edit: An August sales delta of 208K units in favor of the 360 is needed in order to cause an incline in the linear trendline.

The data in and of itself is pretty straight forward. However, how you interpret it depends on outside variables that have to be accounted to paint an accurate picture.

The xbox1 trend is propped up by a price cut and the release of what turned out to be the most popular franchise on the console and one of the top 3 franchises of the overall console generation. Furthermore, the xbox1 released with full competitive pressure as all console of that generation was either already released or release during the same time frame.

The 360 trends closely comparably with the xbox 1 and is propped up by having the market to itself for a year. However, its trend comparably without any price cut, without a Halo release and a $100-$200 premium.

Compare the beginning sales data for the N64 and the Playstation. The trending data for the playstation over its first 22 months would compare horribly to the N64data over its first 22 months. Yet we all know how that turned out.

I think we'll get a better picture once the holiday season has passed as we will then have the inclusion of a 360 price cut, a 360 Halo release and more data that lessen the influence of 360 sales with no current gen competition.

 

[dobwal]

Thanks again, so at last I changed my mind, VGchart figures at least give a good overall idea of what is going on minus some minor biais.

Being off a 80K for the Wii and 50K for the 360 for all of NA and fudging the placement (3rd instead of 2nd as NPD track of the 360) is not really what I call a "good overall idea". If Vgchartz never went back and stealth edited the hell out of their numbers, we all would have a clearer picture at how unreliable Vgchartz can be at times especially when it comes to predicting sales pre NPD. Vgchartz needs a bigger sample size. I commend them on a huge effort and the site has definite value but I wouldn't use there pre NPD numbers with any confidence.

 

[Geo]

I think for August I'm going to be curious to see how much of its monthly sales increase that PS3 can hang onto. I've had a strong feeling since launch of a group of folks hanging on like grim death waiting for that price cut. Are they enough to be significant, or just an anecdotal blip? In other words, did they come as a wave in July that will recede in August? Or is this more or less a permenent move up for PS3?

 

[expletive]

Or that a major section of Wii's userbase are waiting for some good games to buy? Me included.. I 'just had to have one' even though I knew I'd have to wait a while for a good supply of games.

Well if thats the case then Wii hasn't really expanded the market at all since the new casual gamers probably don't know of the 2007 release schedule outisde of the fact that 'a new mario is coming'. I cant see these alpha moms buying a wii and saying "yeah theres nothing i want right now but Metroid prime is coming soon and i hear SSBM has solid snake in it"

 

[Scott_Arm]

Well if thats the case then Wii hasn't really expanded the market at all since the new casual gamers probably don't know of the 2007 release schedule outisde of the fact that 'a new mario is coming'. I cant see these alpha moms buying a wii and saying "yeah theres nothing i want right now but Metroid prime is coming soon and i hear SSBM has solid snake in it"

I actually think people overstate the market expansion that the Wii is bringing. People don't become gamers overnight, Wii or no Wii. Personally, I bought my Wii knowing it would be a while before a lot of quality titles were out.

 

[Dave Baumann]

In other words, did they come as a wave in July that will recede in August? Or is this more or less a permenent move up for PS3?

The Gamespot data points that I link to earlier may already give some hints to that.