NPD July 2007

[Acert93]

This is not generally true. I have the NPD for every month.

In the historic fashion it certainly is. The synchronized launch-to-date sales are within ~5% deviance

Compare the deviance against NA sales for syncrhonized launch-todate with the PS2. I have ~13.9M PS2 NA sales from launch-to-August, and ~6.12M NA sales for the Xbox 360 from launch-to-August. That is a staggering 100% + variance.

Even counting your "exceptions" as reasons to dismiss the value of certain sales periods (which is a never ending list), in the big picture I don't doesn't invalidate the trend.

And the trend being the Xbox 360 is trending in launch-to-date sales very closely to the Xbox and is falling significantly behind the historical trends of past market leaders.

Basically, versus Xbox, 360 was put at a huge disadvantage because it was supply constrained it's first holiday, whereas Xbox 1 was not. After the first two months for each console, Xbox 1 was ahead by 814,000 consoles.

I won't dismiss it is at a disadvange, but some points.

First is that in terms of historic trending or launch-to-date trending it doesn't really matter.

Second, even considering your data, MS isn't trending substantially better in NA. We are talking about a different of 20% instead of 5%.

People can note launch shortages, MS not price cutting, bad press from the RROD, higher pricing schemes, reduced production and sales in H1 2007, and the other various hurdles the 360 has faced. Yet those, too, have become a trend.

Which all obscured the point that I think is most important:

From a historic position the Xbox 360 is trending toward a 2nd/3rd place console in regards to market share.

I do believe holiday 2007 will be a big boom for MS (if they can meet supply). I also believe the Xbox 360 is going to substantially outsell the Xbox in lifetime sales--in my estimation MS will reach 2x increase in sales.

And to play devils advocate, you want to disregard the first 2 months of Xbox 360 sales because of supply constraints. But it could be argued that, after 19 months, that should have been equalized. If the sales trend was substantially stronger, all those spurned launch consumers should have bumped up sales significantly in the spring plus the increased sales rate. Did all those spurned launch consumers dissappear and never buy a console? It is easier to argue that they are a large part of the increased sales rates. So it isn't as cut and dry as diregarding those numbers. In the big picture that, after 19 months, we need to still excuse launch shortages as a reason NOT to compare launch-to-date trends says more than I ever could. MS obviously didn't capitolize in the way they should have. Which was my point about spring/summer 2007 sales -- you don't magically make those up in the fall. The price cut was too little, too late.

And lets not forget that every arguement you make for the Xbox 360 can be made in a similar fashion to the Xbox: It launched late, had less publisher support, didn't launch with Live, had 2 consoles to compete with at launch, had no known IPs, lacked a fanbase, etc.

If we compare and contrast the obstacles the Xbox and Xbox 360 had in the market, I would say the 360 has faced less competition and fewer obstacles. Should we factor this into our sales data?

Not if we are comparing launch-to-date sales trends. In those trends, as you note, the Xbox 360 is on an ascending trend -- but it isn't significant, to this point, in regards to historical market leadership rates.

That honor would befall the Nintendo Wii.

While your points are valid and point toward better-than-Xbox long term sales for the 360, in the historic perspective it is akin to Sony getting excited about a 100% increase in monthly sales, yet a.) lagging behind both competitors and b.) completely off pace historically.

At MS's current rate they won't be aquiring many of the 120M PS2 customers who are undecided on which next gen platform they should purchase. Right now it looks like the Wii is the one making the most inroads in that market.

That said, I do see things looking up for MS, as I mentioned before. Software is a driving force, and MS is excelling in that department now.

EDIT: Stealth edit Rangers FTW! I see that we both see what the other is saying and I agree. And longterm I do see the 360 doing better than the Xbox, by a substantial margin.

 

[djskribbles]

Canada got a 150 $ price cut n ?

kind of... the PS3 launched at 659.99 in Canada. at the time, the CDN dollar was doing well but started to fall back from the US $, so most stores (i think only EB and Walmart kept it at 659.99) raised the price to 699.99. then after the price cut, it went down to 549.99. so really, we got a $110 price cut. the CDN $ doing better may have something to do with it.

 

[ErnstH]

Let's see how 360 does next month after it's first price cut, before making definitive comparisons to the Xbox1. Just taking the software sales into perspective, it should be obvious that it's in a wholly different situation than Xbox1 was. Looking at software sales, Xbox1 had to deal with the undisputed leader PS2. On the other hand, 360 is the undisputed leader for next-gen (current-gen) 3rd party software sales (Madden being the latest example). IMO, they have gotten the most important part right: luring in consumers who have no problems to buy large amounts of software. In turn, they have gained much loyalty from publishers. Now, starting of with the recent price drop, they need to lure in the masses. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year turns out.

It will be interesting to compare 3rd party title sales rates later this year (CoD4, AC). I believe the 360 will lead the sales by a larger amount than could be expected on the basis of installed base alone, proving that it has the consumers most ready to buy titles.

Wii of course is, hardware sales-wise, in a whole different league. But I have yet to see non-Nintendo software sales impress me. Nintendo shareholders can be very happy. I'm just not sure if 3rd party Wii developers are.

 

[Acert93]

Let's see how 360 does next month after it's first price cut, before making definitive comparisons to the Xbox1.

1. There is nothing definitive about the comparison in regards to the future.

2. Pointing out past troubles or past hurdles and future outlook doesn't invalidate the "snapshot" of a launch-to-date comparison.

What a launch-to-date comparison, does, is give us a fairly stable metric to compare MS's success to their previous offering--to this point in time.

It doesn't say anything about the future, or invalidate past hurdles. But it does tell us something about the overall impact and picture to this date in relative terms compared to the previous effort at a similar date.

It gives us an idea of the impact of all the mitigating factors in the market and how MS has been able to respond to them. It also, as you noted, gives us a reference point: Similar number of units installed after 19 months, but amazing software sales.

By diminishing the relevance one of set of data (with the conjecture it will not continue to be so -- and I agree!) also diminishes software sales. i.e. The Xbox 360 has trended in total launch-to-date sales in a path very similar to the Xbox and very different from the PS2 and Wii; I don't see that trend continueing; further the sluggish hardware sales have been met with brisk software sales.

IMO, they have gotten the most important part right:

Does getting the most important part right negate criticism of wrongs or invalidate evaluating where they are at today -- not where you and I, both, expect them to be next year?

It will be interesting to compare 3rd party title sales rates later this year (CoD4, AC). I believe the 360 will lead the sales by a larger amount than could be expected on the basis of installed base alone, proving that it has the consumers most ready to buy titles.

I agree that the attach rate will be good.

On the other hand, there is a LOT more competition on the 360. On top of multiplatform titles like BiA3, MoH, Madden, HL2 Orange Box, Rock Band, etc... AC and CoD4 have to fight a lot of Xbox 360 exclusives: Bioshock, Mass Effect, Halo 3, PGR4, Blue Dragon, and so froth.

The competition on the PS3 isn't quite as tough. You have a couple shooters (Haze, UT3) of note, but sadly the PS3 exclusives like Lair and HS aren't being critically well received so far. So there will be some shooter competition for CoD4, but it has a strong pedigree and a lot of exposure. And Assassin's Creed doesn't have a lot of genre competition with GTAIV gone and fits well into the traditional Playstation fanbase.

My prediction is that AC will have a strong showing on the PS3, but the install base disparity (and the PS3 high price tag and software issues which will continue to feed such this holiday) will result in higher sales on the Xbox 360. But per unit, I think the attach rate for AC will be higher on the PS3. So I agree with the larger sales on the 360, but not with the larger amount in relation to install base.

But hey, come back in January and tell me when I am wrong We got a friendly wager going now. If you are correct, and the 360 version sees a higher attach rate per unit for 3rd party software (not just higher total sales, although that is relevant too) then I would expect some huge shifts in publisher support that would echo for the remainder of the generation (support shifts in early 2008 will be felt in 2010/2011).

Holiday 2007 and early 2008 have been the most pivitol years for this current generation of consoles. Of course I have been saying that since 2004

I'm just not sure if 3rd party Wii developers are.

That was a major complaint with the GCN and N64, and I am certain 3rd parties will continue to keep an eye on this. But if the Wii turns into this generations runaway PS2 success (who knows?) their install base may become large enough to mitigate such -- and dev costs on the Wii (stealth edit... I cannot believe I called it a GCN haha) are substantially lower than a competitive product on the 360 or PS3.

So even if software doesn't sell as well in regards in attach rate, if they end up with 2x or more units plus development costs 50% less, you can afford an attach rate for 3rd party software that is a lot lower.

 

[Rangers]

Joshua Luna:

In the historic fashion it certainly is. The synchronized launch-to-date sales are within ~5% deviance

Compare the deviance against NA sales for syncrhonized launch-todate with the PS2. I have ~13.9M PS2 NA sales from launch-to-August, and ~6.12M NA sales for the Xbox 360 from launch-to-August. That is a staggering 100% + variance.

I was comparing against your statement that 360 was "trending towards Xbox sales levels". So I'm not about to argue that PS2 isn't kicking it's tail.

You're right, in percentage terms the difference overall LTD isn't huge, because of that initial 800,000 hole, but if you look at the unnering consistency with which 360 beats Xbox 1 since then, you must conclude it simply sells better.

Here are the 19 months beginning Jan 06 discrepancies (in favor of 360): +121k, +22k,+55k,+217k, -8k,+12k,+52k,+68k,+87k,-19k,+43k,+67k,+130k,+31k,+34k,+46k,+31k,+32k,+32k (<--July just completed)

And these spread are not small in percentage terms in most cases. Even a 30k spread when the baseline is 130,000 consoles is pretty significant.

Additionally, you'll probably have at least +100K spread in August, it's easy to predict.

Also, 360 is doing these numbers at a much higher average selling price. Xbox 1 was cut to 199 as a life support measure within months of launch (granted, there has been some inflation to take into account). I bet the average selling price of a 360 remains near 399 even today, thanks to the Elite.

From a historic position the Xbox 360 is trending toward a 2nd/3rd place console in regards to market share.

Sure, but who's gonna beat the Wii? Microsoft sees it's primary competitor as Sony, they are both going for the set top box, unlike nintendo. In the fight against Sony things are immesurably better than last time. Additionally, 360 is a software selling beast (Madden now sells by FAR best on 360, far over PS2, Wii, and PS3, which means it is something of a new PS2 imo), and should end up much more profitable, and imo has a lot of upside over just what some sort of rote projections would suggest. If people tire of the Wii down the road for example, 360 is best positioned to capitalize on that in the West at least for sure.

 

[PatrickL]

From square2005 on neogaf

 

[Arwin]

Just shows really that you can't make reliable predictions about anything based on the data above. I think there should be a correction for price (including inflation) at the very least - that would make it more useful.

 

[zed]

Heh, I was at Ebgames waiting in line to buy my pre-ordered Bioshock when the sales clerk blurted out to the people in line "if you are looking for the Wii, we don't have any." He said he still get asked all day long.

tell them to come here to nz, here u can pick them up anywhere, basically its ps3>xb360>wii (the xbox is huge here)

"trending towards Xbox sales levels"

the xbox sold what? 24million
to achieve relatively the same, the xb360 has to sell ~29million, yes believe it or not theres even inflation in consoles, each generation sells cumulatively ~20% more than the previous one

 

[Brimstone]

Xbox 1 had Halo at launch which was highly anticipated.


XB360 number hardware sales numbers will start a dramatic surge with the looming Halo 3 launch. The monster game attach ratio is going to remain strong.

Halo 3 ='s massive escalation of the XB360's assualt upon the video game market.



Where are the software sales charts comparison of the Gamecube vs. the Wii?


The lifeblood of the game industry are game sales. Retailers don't make real money off each Wii console sold.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Wii of course is, hardware sales-wise, in a whole different league. But I have yet to see non-Nintendo software sales impress me. Nintendo shareholders can be very happy. I'm just not sure if 3rd party Wii developers are.

Well maybe devs have to release quality games instead of cheap ports or games they put together in 3 weeks time. You cant complain your games dont sell if they just suck that isnt any different with ms and sony either.

 

[Rangers]

Xbox 1 had Halo at launch which was highly anticipated.


XB360 number hardware sales numbers will start a dramatic surge with the looming Halo 3 launch. The monster game attach ratio is going to remain strong.

Halo 3 ='s massive escalation of the XB360's assualt upon the video game market.



Where are the software sales charts comparison of the Gamecube vs. the Wii?


The lifeblood of the game industry are game sales. Retailers don't make real money off each Wii console sold.

Halo has never sparked massive Xbox sales in the past.

In fact, it could be argued a particular game never does with any system.

It seems games in the aggregate do. What stimulates sales directly is price cuts.

 

[Zaphod]

I was comparing against your statement that 360 was "trending towards Xbox sales levels".

It most certainly is.

Of course, next months numbers have a high probability of reversing this trend, at least for the polynomial regression line.

Edit: An August sales delta of 208K units in favor of the 360 is needed in order to cause an incline in the linear trendline.

 

[oli2]

Nintendo has the most to gain by quoting VGChartz. The site owner has a pretty much proven bias towards Nintendo, and when the charts are off, it's pretty much always overestimating Nintendo, while underestimating MS and Sony.

Besides that, Nintendo can quote anything they want and it doesn't matter. They're so far ahead that it doesn't matter if the numbers are off by 100,000 for a month. A high degree of accuracy in numbers is meaningless to the Nintendo marketting message.

If Sony or MS quoted them, I'd be a lot more impressed.

In fact, i think you should have another look at your main argument here : last three monthes at least, VGCharts' prediction regarding Wii where off (10-15%), down compared to NPD's. Often we can see the same thing regarding MC's.

Most often, what we can see is :
- VGCharts miss extra shipments for a week (sales estimated down)
- When shipments come back to normal, it miss that too. (sales estimated up).

I certainly won't say the same thing regarding DS.

Ioi has several times admitted he had a Nintendo bias. You can find it in DS numbers but not in Wii's.

I can't understand all of these reasonnings reagarding sales :
- VGCharts is accurate when needed
- When (look at this month 's NPD) PS3 raise : you read OMGSDGHDH Sony's back
- At the same time Raw numbers of the growth of Wii sales were double than PS3 or Xbox. This is IMO much more important than trying to justify the recent moves of Sony or Microsoft, which were (IMO again) not enough.

If i look back this topic, i agree with what Joshua said regarding the missed opportunities of Microsoft. I should extend that thinking to Sony and ask : Could / can they afford what seems obvious to us ?

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Maybe MS didnt do a price drop on purpose? Maybe they were afraid if they drop the price, sony would do to because they wouldnt really have choice but that 100 euro drop sony might do could help them come back so they tried to keep ps3 back as long as possible. Now sony dropped the price and it doesnt seem to make a whole lot of difference MS thought now they should try to ship more by dropping the price.

 

[Acert93]

I know I mentioned it in my reply to Ranger, but to clarify: when I said the Xbox 360 was trending like the Xbox in sales in LTD (total sales to this point compared to a similar time frame on the Xbox), I didn't intend to indicate it was locked into such, or couldn't deviate, or was an identical sales pattern. I only intended that, putting aside any difficulties each platform had, the end result after 19 months was nearly identical in NA sales.

I should have worded my statement something like, "To this point in time the Xbox 360 has trended in total sales at a levels similar to the original Xbox at the same timeframe in it's lifecycle."

 

[liolio]

But there's just so much about 360 yet to be decided, how mainstream it will become and how long MS will support it. Xbox 1 ended up at ~14.5 million NPD, and 360 right now is at about 5.9.

I agree with most of your post, SO I've sworded again your post... Don't hate me

VGchart give 6.45 millions 360 in north america.
You say so far NPD (wich stop in july) give 5.9 in US.
What is the figure for Canada?
It's not really that important but it could give some clues about the really sales figures as NPD are conservative and don't include all retail chains.

 

[liolio]

Maybe MS didnt do a price drop on purpose? Maybe they were afraid if they drop the price, sony would do to because they wouldnt really have choice but that 100 euro drop sony might do could help them come back so they tried to keep ps3 back as long as possible. Now sony dropped the price and it doesnt seem to make a whole lot of difference MS thought now they should try to ship more by dropping the price.

I don't think MS has to consider Sony at this point.
But I guess the 50$ price cut can help to clear the chanel before the "falcon" revision land.
I think that all the hardware defaults have kept MS from their original pricing strategy, they have to face something wrong to only cut 50$ after almost two years.

 

[McHuj]

NDP doesn't include all retain chains, the main one I think is Walmart. Even though it's the biggest retailer in the US, I'm not how much electronics volume they move, but it's probably a sizeable portion. Maybe 5% of the NDP numbers?

 

[Rangers]

NDP doesn't include all retain chains, the main one I think is Walmart. Even though it's the biggest retailer in the US, I'm not how much electronics volume they move, but it's probably a sizeable portion. Maybe 5% of the NDP numbers?

I'm sure Wal Mart is a lot more than that!

Anyways I used to typically hear NPD "captured" ~60% of sales, and extrapolated the rest. However they got a few more sources this month (the reason for the week delay actually) which might have raised the coverage. I also heard "60-75%" recently, so I'm not entirely sure.

I wonder why Wal Mart wont do NPD..sure wish they would to eliminate the gap in coverage.

If NPD is innaccurate, you can blame most of it on the fact they have to estimate Wal Mart.

 

[Rangers]

I agree with most of your post, SO I've sworded again your post... Don't hate me

VGchart give 6.45 millions 360 in north america.
You say so far NPD (wich stop in july) give 5.9 in US.
What is the figure for Canada?
It's not really that important but it could give some clues about the really sales figures as NPD are conservative and don't include all retail chains.

I'm not really sure on Canada but I think it's like 400,000.

Vgchartz used to claim to try to predict 10% over NPD, because they claimed NPD was too conservative, but I dunno, 6.45m isn't overpredicting by much (if NPD US+Canada~6.3) (especially with a couple extra weeks in there).