9 XBX DOA: BEACH VOLLEYBALL Tecmo
By the way, I brought my GCN over to a friend's house Friday, and now he's definitely going to buy one for himself He already owns a PS2, BTW...
9 XBX DOA: BEACH VOLLEYBALL Tecmo
Blade said:Wazoo: I don't mind threads that point out how badly the GameCube is doing outside of Japan.
That is, as long as the Xbox "enthusiasts" don't complain about when Nintendo "enthusiasts" post the same type of stuff.
Hypocrisy is the biggest trait of Xbox fanboys, as far as I'm concerned. Their s**t apparently doesn't stink. I can't say that the hardcore Nintendo and Sony-lovin' War Room Warriors are any different, though. Extremism is always bad, as is stupidity.
Tagrineth said:9 XBX DOA: BEACH VOLLEYBALL Tecmo
January 2003 NPD Video Game Sales Data
NOTE: NPD reports U.S. retail sales data, based upon reporting from 60% of U.S. retailers. Our analysis compares “projected” unit sales and “projected” retail sales in order to determine which publishers are meeting, exceeding, or falling short of our own internal estimates. The revenue and earnings estimates in our models are based upon worldwide wholesale sales, and each company’s retail performance will vary from the wholesale projections in our models.
OVERVIEW
This morning, NPD released its January 2003 sales data for U.S. video game software sales. Total sales were $321 million, down 79% sequentially from December’s $1,513 million sales figure, and up 1% compared to January 2002. The sequential decrease is attributable to the post holiday sales slowdown and the lack of any ‘mega hit’ titles released in January. Total 2002 sales were $5.5 billion compared with 2001 of $4.6 billion (a year-over-year increase of 20.7%). Total U.S. Video Game Software Sales (Retail Sales $)
Source: NPD.
We had anticipated software sales of $350 million, with overall sales coming in below our expectations. Notwithstanding the relatively low increase in year-over-year monthly sales, we remain confident that sales will continue to be strong into 2003 and
expect to end the year up over 20% from 2002.
January sales were driven by continuing strong sales of PS2 games, including Take-Two’s Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (PS2), Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 2003 (on multiple platforms), Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (on multiple platforms), Midway’s Mortal Kombat Deadly Alliance (on multiple platforms), Infogrames’ Dragon Ball Z: Budokai (PS2), and Sony’s The Getaway (PS2) and SOCOM U.S. Navy Seals (PS2). Strong sales from January releases include EA’s The Sims (PS2) and Capcom’s Devil May Cry 2 (PS2).
The trend to big titles continued, with 8 games selling more than 100,000 units apiece in January (this compares to our expectation of 10 and 95 last month). Over 3,000 games were sold in January. The top 200 games (out of over 1,400 selling 1,000 or more units) captured 65% of unit sales and 73% of dollar sales, compared with 67% of unit sales and 74% of dollar sales in December. The “80-20” rule was in full force, with the top 250 of games capturing over 77% of dollar sales. Just 61 games captured over 50% of dollar revenues, and the top 10 captured 23% of dollar sales. We expect to see these trends continue through 2003.
We were somewhat disappointed with the relatively low year-over-year percentage sales increase. We believe that this year’s relative weakness is attributable to more than just the overall U.S. economic malaise, and think that the relatively small number of new releases this year contributed to the underwhelming growth figure. As a greater number of new titles is expected over the next few months, we expect to see demand normalize in the 20%+ range going forward, and continue to expect NPD TRSTS data to reflect substantial demand growth for the next two years.
Top 10 Selling Games for PS2 for January 2003 (Retail Sales $)
T itle Pub lisher Pro jected $ 's Pro jected Units
1 THE SIMS Electronic A rts 13,138,460 $ 266,852
2 GRAND THEFT AUTO:VICE Take-Two Interactive 11,163,550 $ 225,383
3 THE GETAWAY Sony 10,353,790 $ 262,024
4 DEVIL MAY CRY 2 Capcom 8,113,732 $ 164,615
5 SOCOM:U .S. NAVY SEALS Sony 8,021,911 $ 134,383
6 DRAGON BALL Z :BUDOKAI In fogrames 5,968,300 $ 121,808
7 MADDEN NFL 2003 Electronic A rts 5,452,802 $ 112,165
8 ATV OFF ROAD FURY 2 Sony 4,054,593 $ 101,999
9 MORTAL KOMBAT: DEADLY Midway 3,850,223 $ 79,307
10 T.CLANCYS GHOST RECON Ub i Soft 3,603,979 $ 73,989
Source: NPD.
Top 10 Selling Games for Xbox for January 2003 (Retail Sales $)
Title Publisher Projected $ 's Projected Units
1 DOA: BEACH VOLLEYBALL Tecmo 4,043,148 $ 81,180
2 T.CLANCY'S SPLINTER Ubi Soft 3,795,435 $ 77,733
3 T.CLANCYS GHOST RECON Ubi Soft 3,501,969 $ 70,807
4 LORD OF R ING S: TOW ERS Electronic Arts 2,962,997 $ 60,049
5 PANZER DRAGOON ORTA Sega 2,918,116 $ 59,076
6 HALO Microsoft 2,745 ,478 $ 56,294
7 MECH ASSAULT Microsoft 1,742,920 $ 35,251
8 MORTAL KOMBAT: DEADLY Midway 1,488,872 $ 30,097
9 MADDEN NFL 2003 Elec tronic A rts 1,299,810 $ 33,051
10 MEDAL HONOR FRONTLINE Electronic Arts 1,280,646 $ 25,896
Source: NPD.
Top 10 Selling Games for GameCube for January 2003 (Retail Sales $)
T itle Pub lisher Pro jected $ 's P rojected Units
1 LORD OF RINGS: TOWERS Electronic Arts 2 ,183 ,596 $ 43,909
2 METROID PRIME Nintendo 1,74 2 ,978 $ 36,009
3 MARIO PARTY 4 Nintendo 1,63 9 ,901 $ 32,580
4 ANIMAL CROSSING Nin tendo 1,61 2 ,051 $ 32,299
5 SUPER SMASH BRO MELEE Nintendo 1,50 0 ,647 $ 30,263
6 SUPER MARIO SUNSHINE Nin tendo 1,12 6 ,626 $ 22,680
7 SKIES OF ARCADIA LGND Sega 1 ,02 4 ,810 $ 19,693
8 SONIC MEGA COLLECTION Sega 95 9 ,693 $ 24,292
9 BOND 007 : N IGHTFIRE Electronic Arts 83 2,832 $ 16,779
10 GODZILLAESTRY MELEE Infogrames 82 3,724 $ 18,584
Source: NPD.
Top 10 Selling Games for GBA for January 2003 (Retail Sales $)
1 YU-GI-OH! ETERNAL Konami 2,620,842 $ 87,839
2 ZELDA: LINK TO PAST Nintendo 2,151,788 $ 70,371
3 METROID FUSION Nintendo 1,230,130 $ 41,283
4 YU-GI-OH! DARK DUEL Konami 1,174,937 $ 39,259
5 KIRBY: NIGHTMARE Nintendo 1,088,577 $ 36,219
6 YOSHI'S ISLAND:MARIO3 Nintendo 1,083,151 $ 36,064
7 SUPER MARIO ADVANCE 2 Nintendo 962,963 $ 31,250
8 SONIC ADVANCE THQ 937,633 $ 31,351
9 LORD OF RINGS: TOWERS Electronic A rts 933,797 $ 31,606
10 GAME & WATCH GALLERY4 Nintendo 733,259 $ 24,637
Source: NPD.
ANALYSIS
In our preview note of NPD data dated February 12, we projected retail sales figures for the companies we cover. Our models typically assume sell-through of approximately 50% of the units shipped within the first four weeks of release. As expected, we saw a significant deceleration of sales following the holidays in January. Take-Two’s Grand Theft Auto: Vice City on the PS2 continues to sell well with 225,000 units, bringing cumulative U.S. sales to 4.7 million units. Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 2003 continues to sell well, with another 181,000 units sold across all platforms. The following is an analysis of each company’s results.
Top 10 Selling Games for Covered Companies for January 2003 (Retail Sales $)
T itle Publisher P latform Proje c ted $ 's Proje c ted U nits
1 THE SIMS Electronic Arts PS2 13,138,460 $ 266,852
2 GRAND THEFT AUTO:VICE Take-Two Interactive PS2 11,163,550 $ 225 ,383
3 MADDEN NFL 2003 Electronic A rts PS2 5,452,802 $ 112,165
4 MORTAL KOMBAT: DEADLY Midway PS2 3,850,223 $ 79,307
5 LORD OF RINGS: TOWERS Electronic Arts PS2 3,256,332 $ 65,862
6 LORD OF RINGS: TOWERS Electronic Arts XBX 2,962,997 $ 60,049
7 NBA LIVE 2 003 Electronic A rts PS2 2,671,941 $ 53 ,827
8 WWE: SHUT YOUR MOUTH THQ PS2 2 ,518,000 $ 52 ,189
9 BOND 007 : NIGHTFIRE Electronic Arts PS2 2,366,751 $ 49,837
10 TIGER WOODS PGA 2003 Elec tronic A ts PS2 2,352,274 $ 47,676
Source: NPD.
Acclaim Entertainment (AKLM—Hold)
Releases during January: 1/14 ATV Quad Power Racing 2 (PS2, GC, Xbox).
January Retail Sales--$5 million
WMS Estimate--$8 million
Acclaim’s market share increased sequentially from 1.5% last month to 1.6% as its retail sales decreased from $22 million to $5 million (compared with $8 million last January). The company’s BMX XXX continues to sell poorly with sales of only 6,000
units across all platforms. We think that the poor sell-through of such a key title indicates that Acclaim must drastically change its strategy and must dramatically improve game quality. ATV Quad Power Racing 2 (PS2, GC, Xbox) sold 24,000 units combined in its first month of release. Catalog sales of the company’s Turok, Legends of Wrestling, Dave Mirra, and Mary Kate & Ashley games continue to generate incremental sales.
Activision (ATVI—Hold)
Releases during January: None.
January Retail Sales--$14 million
WMS Estimate--$20 million
Activision’s market share declined sequentially from 6.4% last month to 4.4%, while its retail sales decreased from $96 million to $14 million (compared with $18 million last January). Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 4 sold well with 75,000 units across all platforms (PS2, Xbox, GC, PSX, GBA), but its other action sports games continue to disappoint. Activision’s results were about
inline with its tempered expectations following its disappointing Q3:03 results and FY:04 outlook.
Electronic Arts (ERTS—Buy and Focus List)
Releases during January: 1/15 The Sims (PS2).
January Retail Sales--$67 million
WMS Estimate--$65 million
Electronic Arts had another superb month. Its market share decreased sequentially from 20.9% last month to 20.8% (21.2% including its 30% share of Square/EA sales), while its retail sales decreased from $316 million to $67 million (compared with $51 million last January or up xx% year-over-year). Madden again sold through very well at retail, selling over 181,000 units across all platforms. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, James Bond 007: NightFire, and Lord of the Rings also sold
very well. We believe that the company will continue to generate sales well in excess of last year’s levels, and expect to see it to maintain its market share in 2003. We note that several Electronic Arts titles sell extremely well in Europe. In particular, we think that
the company generated strong European sales of its Bond, FIFA Soccer, Lord of the Rings, and Harry Potter titles, and we expect to see Electronic Arts benefit from the effects of currency translation during the fiscal year.
Midway Games (MWY—Buy)
Releases during January: None.
January Retail Sales--$11 million
WMS Estimate--$10 million
Midway’s market share decreased sequentially from 3.8% last month to 3.3% and retail sales from $57 million to $11 million (compared with $6 million last January). The company’s best-selling title was Mortal Kombat, which sold 127,000 units across all platforms. Midway’s overall sales were slightly higher than our expected $10 million, with upside from Mortal Kombat offsetting continued disappointing results from Defender (15,000 units), Dr. Muto (9,000 units) and Haven (3,000 units).
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO—Buy and Focus List)
Releases during January: None.
January Retail Sales--$17 million
WMS Estimate--$35 million
Take-Two Interactive’s market share decreased sequentially from 6.9% last month to 5.4% and retail sales from $104 million to $17 million (compared with $40 million last January). Grand Theft Auto: Vice City continued its record breaking sales record by selling another 225,000 units. We had expected the game to sell over 500,000 units for the month, and are surprised at the decline in unit sales. We can only surmise that shipments into the channel were lower than we expected, as the company attempts to keep demand high for its products. The company also showed continued sales strength from its Grand Theft Auto III, Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Conflict: Desert Storm games.
The 3DO Company (THDO—Hold)
Releases during January: None.
January Retail Sales--$0.4 million
WMS Estimate--$1 million
3DO market share stayed at 0.1%, with sales decreasing from $2 million to $0.4 million (compared with $2 million last January). 3DO’s results were as expected, given the company’s limited release schedule. 3DO’s catalog sales have been remarkably consistent over the last few months, with its Army Men games generating the bulk of revenue.
THQ, Inc. (THQI—Buy)
Releases during January: None.
January Retail Sales--$17 million
WMS Estimate--$17 million
THQ’s market share declined sequentially from 7.2% to 5.3%, while retail sales declined from $110 million to $17 million (compared with $14 million last January). The company’s GBA, WWE, and other mass market licensed products performed well. THQ’s best seller was WWE Smackdown: Shut Your Mouth for the PS2 which sold 52,000 units. THQ again had sales that were broad-based, with 17 titles (6 Game Boy games) selling 10,000 or more units, compared with 63 last month. Games based upon the ***************eBob SquarePants license continued to sell well representing 3 of the top 6 games sold by THQ.
5
January 2003 Market Share of Covered Companies (Retail Sales $)
D e c -0 2 J a n -0 3
E L E C T R O N IC A R T S 2 0 .9 % 2 0 .8 %
T H Q 7.2 % 5 .3 %
T A K E 2 IN T E R A C T IV E 6 .9% 5 .4%
A C T IV IS IO N 6.4 % 4 .4 %
M ID W A Y 3.8 % 3 .3 %
A C C L A IM E N T E R T A IN M E N T 1 .5% 1 .6%
T H E 3 D O C O M P A N Y 0 .1 % 0 .1 %
4 6 .8 % 4 0 .9 %
Source: NPD.
CONCLUSION
January overall retail sales results were lower than we expected, coming in at $321 million compared to our estimate of $350 million. We expect overall industry growth to continue at a 20%+ rate into 2003 and through 2004. The outstanding performer for the month was Electronic Arts. Electronic Arts has a deep lineup of superb content, and we believe that it will maintain the #1 position next month. We expect investors to regain confidence in consumer spending on video games over the next several months. We continue to believe that overall hardware sales will be strong through the year, accompanied by a strong lineup of new software titles and the release of the front-lit GBA SP in March. February big releases include Acclaim’s All-Star Baseball 2004, 3DO’s High Heat Baseball 2004, and Konami’s Yu-Gi-Oh! Duelists of the Roses (PS2).
January 2003 Market Share Rankings (Top 30 Companies)
Source: NPD.
Total 321,480,234 $
Company Projected $'s Market Share
1 ELECTRONIC ARTS 67,009,590 $ 20.8%
2 SONY 38,587,830 $ 12.0%
3 NINTENDO OF AMERICA 20,250,170 $ 6.3%
4 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 17,379,440 $ 5.4%
5 THQ 17,018,630 $ 5.3%
6 UBISOFT 15,428,550 $ 4.8%
7 INFOGRAMES 14,783,910 $ 4.6%
8 SEGA OF AMERICA 14,192,930 $ 4.4%
9 ACTIVISION 14,158,890 $ 4.4%
10 CAPCOM USA 14,068,460 $ 4.4%
11 KONAMI OF AMERICA 11,209,750 $ 3.5%
12 MIDWAY 10,649,140 $ 3.3%
13 NAMCO 8,502,420 $ 2.6%
14 MICROSOFT 8,269,078 $ 2.6%
15 VIVENDI UNIVERSAL 6,945,939 $ 2.2%
16 TECMO 5,651,541 $ 1.8%
17 ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT 5,282,557 $ 1.6%
18 EIDOS INTERACTIVE 4,647,695 $ 1.4%
19 LUCASARTS ENTERTAINMENT 4,247,694 $ 1.3%
20 SQUARE EA 4,035,154 $ 1.3%
21 MULTIPLE VIDEO GAME MANUFACTUR 2,566,279 $ 0.8%
22 TDK MEDIACTIVE 2,077,240 $ 0.6%
23 KOEI 1,965,681 $ 0.6%
24 BAM! ENTERTAINMENT 1,740,433 $ 0.5%
25 MAJESCO 1,541,329 $ 0.5%
26 INTERPLAY PRODUCTIONS 1,046,313 $ 0.3%
27 AGETEC 985,155 $ 0.3%
28 BANDAI AMERICA 878,470 $ 0.3%
29 BETHESDA SOFTWORKS 769,601 $ 0.2%
30 NEWKIDCO 544,095 $ 0.2%
Wow, Metroid fell off the charts pretty quickly.
Qroach said:..bunch of lines deleted...
Heh, if anyone should be thanking God for EA support it's MS and Nintendo. EA would do just fine (almost as good as they are doing now might I say) on PS2 alone, and we've all seen how major factor they can be in a console's success. Their support on PS2 is a given, and I really don't see why sould Sony be thanking anyone for that. Who are they going to support if not the obvious market leader?Sony needs to thank God everynight for EA's support