NPD December 2007

[quest55720]

Is that the game that comes packaged or bundled with the wii? If so, from anecdotal experience that is nothing more than a gimmicky pos* that is played for a few minutes to a couple of hours and forgotten.

There are millions world wide the completely disagree with you. Wii sports is still selling Wiis at an almost historic rate. I am sorry but you almost sound bitter. I can enjoy both Wii sports is great with a group of people I also enjoy playing games on my 360. You can wish all you want but it is not going to keep the Wii from completely kicking the crap out of both the 360/PS3. The fight is now for a distant second place. The Wiimote has made game accessable again for many many people who never gamed or quit years ago. I think it is great I can share my hobby with more people. As long as the 360 sells software like a monster we will see plenty of hardcore type games.

 

[....]

There are millions world wide the completely disagree with you. Wii sports is still selling Wiis at an almost historic rate. I am sorry but you almost sound bitter. I can enjoy both Wii sports is great with a group of people I also enjoy playing games on my 360. You can wish all you want but it is not going to keep the Wii from completely kicking the crap out of both the 360/PS3. The fight is now for a distant second place. The Wiimote has made game accessable again for many many people who never gamed or quit years ago. I think it is great I can share my hobby with more people. As long as the 360 sells software like a monster we will see plenty of hardcore type games.

I'm just talking from personal experience, I don't know a single wii owner that still plays wii sports.

The family members who've bought it, played it for a few hours, and moved on.

I honestly doubt that 'wii sports' is what's selling the wiis.

 

[iceberg187]

I'm just talking from personal experience, I don't know a single wii owner that still plays wii sports.

The family members who've bought it, played it for a few hours, and moved on.

I honestly doubt that 'wii sports' is what's selling the wiis.

Just watch, the Wii will end up like Monopoly, the board game. I might pull it out of the closet 2-3 times a year, but I still have it. Surely people will play their Wii more than that, but that is the gist of it. Wii Sports is the impetus to getting the Wii into the room and it is doing a wonderful job as of now.

 

[TrungGap]

I honestly doubt that 'wii sports' is what's selling the wiis.

Gasp! No way, you actually believe that? I have a lot of friends who never owned a gaming console in their life, but are disparately looking to buy a Wii just because what they saw Wii can do...via Wii sports.

Wii sports demonstrated what the Wiimote is all about. What it can do and how the users can relate to real life experience.

 

[Vic]

Which used to be spring IIRC.



Well, obvious the shrinking sales in Japan for traditional franchises is a major factor.

Virtually every single major japanese publisher has expressed their desire to increase western marketshare.

The reverse is not true with regards to western publishers, and Japan.

Well it has to come out eventually. You could play this game forever. And I think I'll go with Threespeech on this one.

Regardless, I dont think the PS3 is at any risk of missing out on big Western exclusives unless MS pays; indeed I think its more likely the 360 will miss out on Japanese-oriented games (Okami 2 perhaps?).

 

[Acert93]

Okami "2" is a Wii title. Okami, on the PS2, while a critical success failed to meet expectations and Clover Studios, the dev house that made the game, was closed down by Capcom. Clover Studios has essentially reformed into Seeds Inc which then merged with ODD and is now Platinum Games.

Anyhow, right now, Okami 2 doesn't appear to be headed to the 360 or the PS3... but instead to the Wii.

 

[Arwin]

Okami "2" is a Wii title. Okami, on the PS2, while a critical success failed to meet expectations and Clover Studios, the dev house that made the game, was closed down by Capcom. Clover Studios has essentially reformed into Seeds Inc which then merged with ODD and is now Platinum Games.

Wasn't that done before it was clear how well the game would sell though?

Anyway, Okami 2 on Wii makes a lot of sense. It was well received by Zelda players critically, after all, so there's a lot of potential for a decent market for them on Wii, and the whole brush thing screams Wii-mote. Should be awesome combo.

Laa-Yosh is right about Killzone and Guerilla. The game hasn't been in the making for that long. They have a huge team now, but they had a lot of trouble getting the team together, partly because Guerilla is based in the Netherlands and to a large extent, Guerilla was already a huge slice of the relatively tiny (though budding) game industry we have. In the end they actively sought people from abroad, and being based in Amsterdam, I suspect they were successful enough (it's a great city and talented games developers could do worse than be there for one or two years), but this all happened in 2006, so I think 2007 was the first full year where they had the complete team working on the game, with also indeed work on the PSP game having been the primary focus before that (which by looked and played great and boded well for the team).

However, unless they hired complete idiots, I do think that the team should be able to get the game out at the planned date this year. You can't wait to long anyway, or your great new technology will be outdated again, and Killzone seems to be at least partly about great technology. They run the risk of being overtaken during development and then thinking ok we need to change or add this, and experience another set-back, but they can't really afford to. I think when we saw then in E3 they were doing pretty well, so I'm thinking the engine will be ok and their asset creation pipeline as a result should be pretty productive now. The major risk factor for not making the deadline would be online play. I expect they will still run a beta, so we can follow progress to some extent. If they don't get a beta around the same time as the Halo 3 beta was last year or if it has major problems, then things will be looking gloomy for the final release date. Also, depending on how closely they're tied in to new PSN / Home functionality, that could affect them also.

However, within the SCE group of software developers server based online play in general seems to be nailed pretty well (ironically my online experiences for multiplayer have been better on PS3 than on 360), so in terms of the basic functionality at least the online implementation shouldn't be too much rocket science.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Rentals, sharing and similar things extend the number of gta players on the console beyond the sold numbers(do those numbers include used games sales? Because those are significant for a game like gta considering recent policies at stores like gs and eb.).

Why can't you accept that GTA has only played a role for the minority of the PS2 users?

 

[Carl B]

Anyhow, right now, Okami 2 doesn't appear to be headed to the 360 or the PS3... but instead to the Wii.

I don't know about calling it Okami "2" though, since it's just Okami "1" being ported to the Wii.

 

[Readykilowatt]

Also I am sure Wii sports 2 is only a matter of time.

I seriously doubt there will be a Wii Sports 2.

Yes, there is. Wii Sports is the most important game this generation hands down.

That's only until Wii Fit is released.

 

[....]

Why can't you accept that GTA has only played a role for the minority of the PS2 users?

I accept that, but I believe that minority is larger than the number of sold 'new' units.

 

[mrcorbo]

What you're saying is definitely true, but it's worth mentioning that the software connection is not a part of the argument at all. I don't think anyone here is claiming that 360 is at risk of losing its sizable software sales advantage against PS3 anytime in the near future.

I don't understand what you are saying here. I was talking about more than simple sales; I was talking about factors that would influence the relative number and diversity of "Western" titles available for the 2 systems going forward.

If there is a significant advantage in sales potential on one platform over the other in the US (based on a combination of the size of its user base and the rate at which they buy games) it doesn't matter if the 2 systems are at parity in user base and total software sales WW. The system that is performing better in the US is the more attractive system to developers because it requires less investment to capture those sales. No need for localization, one national ad campaign reaches the whole market, easier support, etc. As risk-averse as we know publishers are, less investment = less risk. Add to this is the fact that if the developer plans to do DLC that DLC development benefits in all the same ways as the original work from being able to target a single large homogeneous market.

In short; the US market, aside from being the largest market, also represents relatively easy money.

If having more and more different titles on one platform over the other isn't part of the argument then I would argue that it should be .

 

[Carl B]

I don't understand what you are saying here. I was talking about more than simple sales; I was talking about factors that would influence the relative number and diversity of "Western" titles available for the 2 systems going forward.

Right; again I understand and agree...

If having more and more different titles on one platform over the other isn't part of the argument then I would argue that it should be .

...because it indeed wasn't part of the argument before.

I think we need to look at the origins of the argument to see why it wasn't also; basically the WW sales numbers came into it because the assertion was that PS3 sales suck compared to 360. So, you see where it took shape the way that it did. Again, everything you say about software support is true and valid, but at the same time I just want to point out that the previous posts weren't made in a vacuum that excluded that logic so much as simply targeted towards a single point related to hardware sales. That point being that on a worldwide basis, sales are near parity. Now, if you want to discuss the development benefits of a territorially-centralized consumer base, by all means do so - I've already stated my own agreement with the premise - but it is a separate argument than the one centering soley on comparative sales.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I accept that, but I believe that minority is larger than the number of sold 'new' units.

Which is what I've accounted for when mentioning 80%. See, for the ~110 million PS2s out there, the highest selling GTA episode has sold 15 million units, which is 13.6%. So I've been quite generous with that number, actually.

Edit: and GTA has been a unique phenomenon, the best selling console game of the previous generation. Most of the other biggest hits haven't sold half as many units, so they've managed to reach an even smaller fraction of the gaming market.

But specific numbers do not matter anyway, as my point still stands about the PS2 userbase being very varied. The console and the games have managed to reach many different audiences at the same time, but this is not the case for this generation, as it seems.

 

[mrcorbo]

Most people in the EU market understands English, and quite a lot of games are not driven by dialogue anyway.

You may be surprised to find out how few games that are actually localized beyond the menues.

And what about marketing, support (such as it is with games these days), distribution. It costs more to do business in the EU, that's one of the reasons you pay more. You get the idea. I didn't think I actually had to point out all the reasons why.

 

[Crossbar]

And what about marketing, support (such as it is with games these days), distribution. It costs more to do business in the EU, that's one of the reasons you pay more. You get the idea. I didn't think I actually had to point out all the reasons why.

Well people pay more for games in Europe as well as you say, sometimes twice the price in the US so marketing, distribution, etc is being payed for. You get the idea.

I just pointed out that many games get little to nothing of localisation work. If I am not wrong The PAL/NTSC conversion is a non-issue on the new consoles, at least on the PS3 where games don´t have region coding.

 

[mrcorbo]

Right; again I understand and agree...



...because it indeed wasn't part of the argument before.

I think we need to look at the origins of the argument to see why it wasn't also; basically the WW sales numbers came into it because the assertion was that PS3 sales suck compared to 360. So, you see where it took shape the way that it did. Again, everything you say about software support is true and valid, but at the same time I just want to point out that the previous posts weren't made in a vacuum that excluded that logic so much as simply targeted towards a single point related to hardware sales. That point being that on a worldwide basis, sales are near parity.

OK, gotcha. My initial post on the subject was prompted by a sentiment that US sales were being assigned too much importance. I was simply pointing out that they actually are disproportionately important and why.

That having been said the PS3 is in no way "doomed" or a failure any more than I feel the XBOX was last gen (except in a financial sense and even then only to MS). As an XBOX owner I was treated to many unique gaming experiences that I feel measure up against the best of what the PS2 had to offer and saw versions of many of the major franchises. The PS2, though, had much more of everything and some unique niche titles that were only viable because of the dominant user base. As it stands now, and with current trends, the PS3 would be hard pressed to acquire a fraction of the game library that the PS2 had both in number of titles and diversity of titles.

 

[mrcorbo]

Well people pay more for games in Europe as well as you say, sometimes twice the price in the US so marketing, distribution, etc is being payed for. You get the idea.

I just pointed out that many games get little to nothing of localisation work. If I am not wrong The PAL/NTSC conversion is a non-issue on the new consoles, at least on the PS3 where games don´t have region coding.

It's being paid for only as long as people buy the game. That's a risk. The larger the initial investment the greater the risk and requiring EU sales to supplement the US sales involves making a greater investment. As a publisher you are going to be less likely to agree to take that kind of risk on a project that is not in a proven genre or by a proven developer. Put yourself in the position of a developer or a publisher; all console preferences aside, which platform's situation is more attractive to you if you want to make the most money with the least risk?

 

[Crossbar]

It's being paid for only as long as people buy the game. That's a risk. The larger the initial investment the greater the risk and requiring EU sales to supplement the US sales involves making a greater investment. As a publisher you are going to be less likely to agree to take that kind of risk on a project that is not in a proven genre or by a proven developer. Put yourself in the position of a developer or a publisher; all console preferences aside, which platform's situation is more attractive to you if you want to make the most money with the least risk?

Yeah sure, but your talk about risk works both way. If you only target one market and fail to appeal to that market, you bomb pretty hard. If you target several markets you may fail to appeal to some but succeed on others.

As an example: Do think Uncharted was targeted to appeal more to the European market than the US market?

Another question, are you expecting many coming 360 games will only be released on the US market?

 

[mrcorbo]

Yeah sure, but your talk about risk works both way. If you only target one market and fail to appeal to that market, you bomb pretty hard. If you target several markets you may fail to appeal to some but succeed on others.

As an example: Do think Uncharted was targeted to appeal more to the European market than the US market?

I'm not talking about targeting a market in terms of, "We're only going to make games that appeal to US gamers" I'm talking about making a game that may or may not have appeal period. When in doubt you look at the worst case scenario (the game being a flop) and you try to determine what the cost will be if that happens. The bigger the initial investment the bigger the cost of failure. Some publishers are only a couple of failures away from insolvency, so in the risk/reward calculation they are weighing the possible risk much more heavily than the possible reward when making decisions. And clearly Sony was aiming Uncharted at the WW market. As a platform holder their considerations are much different than a normal publisher.

Another question, are you expecting many coming 360 games will only be released on the US market?

Already addressed this.

So if the 360 continues to increase its lead in the US alone the result will be more and more of these niche and unproven concepts getting green-lighted on that platform for that market...
...Some of these titles will do well enough to get localization and an EU release. Some fewer of these will be allocated the resources to be ported to PS3.

Game would theoretically see a US-only release and then if it was successful get the additional investment from the publisher to do an EU and/or Japanese release and/or a PS3 port.