NPD December 2002

[Qroach]

How many first time development studios get to say that thier first game (collectively) sells over a million units?

Well you're right it's not very often first time console developers makes a game that sells over a million copies. I've said the same thing about Halo. I'm specifically talking about those people that were better MP would outsell SC.

Also if you factor in the userbase sizes of the XB vs GCN, MP tied in better than SC did. Using MP's numbers doing what it has on GCN it'd had sold about 50,000 units more on XB than SC did.

Well, when both games were released, Xbox only had a 400,000 lead over gamecube in North America. the lead was pretty big, but not nearly as big as it is right now. Mp sold really well, i have no question about that... I'm just poking fun at the 'it sold really well conidering the size of the user base" argument. becuase that argument was no where to be seen before people were betting which would sell better.

 

[Tagrineth]

Quincy, HALO isn't Bungie's first game...

 

[Goldni]

I'm sure there were some haevy duty Metroid fans out there saying that yes.

I've just been looking at all of the numbers and am just excited for the guys at Retro AND Ubi Soft. No making excuses for the XB here but MP really had some GCN company this Christmas competing on it. SC selling like it has tells me the XB owners were really looking to buy a new good game. What did it really have to go against on XB? Halo and 2 Xbox Live games. I think SC used the ole N64 starvation tactic to reach great sales. I admit SC was my first big /most wanted XB game since Rallisport..then Halo before that. I know this was the case for ALOT of hungry XB owners.

Not taking away anything for any of the companies sales here. I dont know how anyone could be sad by MP's and SC's numbers.

 

[Teasy]

SC also sold better in the second month compared to the first.

Yes it did, which backs up the point I was getting at.

Glonk said MP only outsold SC in its first month due to diehard nintendo fans pre-ordering it. What I was saying is that cannot be true if it sold the same in its second month as the first.

Obviously the only reason SC was outsold by MP in its first month and then outsold MP in its second month is purely more people buying SC in its second month, nothing to do with MP sales.

The only real excuse I've seen is how people have switched from betting MP would out sell SC before christmas to the "it's sold really good considering the size of the user base"

So you didn't just see Glonks excuse for MP outselling SC in there first month then?

BTW wether people thought MP would sell better then SC at first doesn't change the fact that it actually has sold extremely well considering how the userbase is now.

After all not many people predicted XBox selling 400,000 more then GC in December, especially after they both sold the same in November. That big difference in console sales in December was no doubt a big part of SC selling twice what MP sold in December.

Also when did MP come out in stores? was it november?

Yes, SC and MP both came out at the same time, to be exact SC was released the day before MP.

 

[Teasy]

Well, when both games were released, Xbox only had a 400,000 lead over gamecube in North America. the lead was pretty big, but not nearly as big as it is right now.

You seem to be saying that XBox's current userbase advantage can't have had much of an effect on SC outselling MP. Because back in November XBox's userbase advantage was nowhere near as big as it is now (600,000 rather then 1 million).

But that actually proves that it did have an effect on SC outselling MP. Because MP outsold SC in November (when XBox's userbase advantage was only 600,000). December was the month that SC outsold MP and it was also the month that made XBox's userbase advantage as big as it is now (around 1 million).

Obviously XBox's impressive December sales had a big effect on Splinter Cell's sales in that month.

I'm just poking fun at the 'it sold really well conidering the size of the user base" argument. becuase that argument was no where to be seen before people were betting which would sell better.

Things change. As you said yourself in November, when people were trying to guess which game would sell better, XBox's userbase advantage was only around 600,000. Also GC and XBox had just sold equally that month, with most people thinking that Christmas would either be close or GC would sell more. If I had known the XBox was going to sell 400,000 more then GC in December then I would no longer have believed MP would even come close to SC's sales never mind sell more, because most of the people picking up XBox in December would of course buy Splinter Cell... that much was obvious.

 

[CaptainHowdy]

it has nothing to do with user age/quality of games etc..
my feelings, Xboxers buy games around hype, SC did live up to
it for once.. but I can bet DOAXVB will sell more than Beachspikers..
the girls in Beachspikers look better, so its not the sex appeal..
the gameplay in Beachspikers is much better.. so what is the appeal?
Hype... plain and simple

how bad is DOAXVB? when Maxim gives a game based on T&A a mediocre Score, you know its crap.

 

[Nick Laslett]

According to the the same thread in the Gaming Ages forum someone states quite strongly that NPD already adjust their raw numbers to include the missing sales not in their sample.

Why re-adjust them again, if this is the case?

If it's not in the GA forum than it is in the videogameinvestor section at Yahoo. I'll find it for you if you don't believe me.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

It's not true though.

Do you actually think that Sony has shipped 22 million PS2s and only sold 16 million of them? That means every store in the US has 240 PS2s in stock right now. Not possible.

I think that Ben and I have exagerated the difference in the past, but the NPD numbers are likely only 75% of the total sales.

With regards to what Xbox users buy versus Gamecube users: Everyone on all platforms buy what they believe to be good games. Just as many Xbox games live up to the hype as Cube games. Nintendo fans might want to believe otherwise, but it's simply not the case.

 

[Nick Laslett]

It's not true though.

Do you actually think that Sony has shipped 22 million PS2s and only sold 16 million of them? That means every store in the US has 240 PS2s in stock right now. Not possible.

I think that Ben and I have exagerated the difference in the past, but the NPD numbers are likely only 75% of the total sales.

No offense intended, but is this not a simplistic response.

Taking the NPD figures there are 6 million consoles unaccounted for when compared to the Sony shipped figures.

1. Is the NPD sample the same size as the PS2 shipped sample? ie. Do Sony include Canda and Mexico in their shipped numbers but NPD does not?

2. When do Sony count a console as shipped? When is leaves the factory, when it leaves the depot. When it reaches the US? When it reaches the stores?

3. Some stores obviously do hold stock they are not all sold out. Also across the supply chain of the big stores there are sure to be bottle necks. Does Sony deliver directly to each Wal-Mart store or does Wal-Mart have a number of depots from which they then ship to their stores individually?

4. There is going to be a margin of error in the NPD re-adjustment. Is this as high as 25% of sales being missing?

5. Some of these shipped consoles are to replace those still under guarantee that have been broken. A small percentage, I agree but still some. Are these counted in NPD?

Could some of these points account for the missing 6 million? I'm just interested to know your thoughts. I don't have a problem with the new numbers or disagree with what you are doing. I just found it interesting that someone in another forum made the point so strongly about the NPD figures already being adjusted.

 

[LogisticX]

About the consoles sold thing..... every hardware company counts a sale as those that are ordered and purchased by retailers for them to sell (it's not like Sony, Nintendo, or Microsoft give the consoles away to them) so a sale is a sale is a sale, because once the retailer buys it, the hardware company gets the money.

Obviously when Sony says something like '22 million PS2's shipped' it doesn't mean that retailers have sold every single one of those units, that's impossible to really tell anyway. The thing to keep in mind is that...if retailers keep on buying more and more PS2's and Sony has to ship them out, then obviously there is a demand for them, and people ARE purchasing them at a quick rate. Why would a store just keep piling consoles that they never sell? Maybe if they had a deathwish or something.

Anyway, keep that in mind.

 

[wazoo]

Why would a store just keep piling consoles that they never sell? Maybe if they had a deathwish or something.

Anyway, keep that in mind.

Retailers are fanboys, it is a well know fact. They stock consoles to increase shipped numbers of their favorite console.

 

[Qroach]

tag,

Quincy, HALO isn't Bungie's first game...

I said first time "console" developers ... bungie hasn't made a console game before. they only had a PC game they made (oni) ported to console by a completley different group (Rockstar toronto)

 

[Deepak]

Hey Dickpak, what's your beef with GBA? It IS a game machine. PS2 is a game machine. Two different types, yes , but still that does'nt stop the lil ole GBA from being considered probably the funnest game console out right now. In fact GBA was my favorite place for games in 2002. It's not my problem that it'll catch the PS2 before long. It already has in Japan. It's only a mater of time before it passes by the PS2 here in the US. Nothing wrong with that.

Wazoo, I was talking about MP vs SSBM in US terms. MP should pass it here easily.

but your GBA vs PS2 theory does not make any sense at all....it is like comparing a toy AK47 (GBA) with a real AK47 (PS2)......

 

[Vince]

Retailers are fanboys, it is a well know fact. They stock consoles to increase shipped numbers of their favorite console.

Yes, and don't forget that the US is building another Hydroelectric dam out of PS2s. Ohh, and the North Koreans are into that whole ICBM thing, so...

 

[jvd]

THe reason xbox sold so well was the 2 free games with it. It was the best deal on the market at the time . A system , one controller and 2 games for 200$ or a A system (150) , one controller and 2 games (40each) and a memory card (15) for 245. If you were a parent what would you buy. I believe zelda with the two free zelda games will help sell a lot of nintendo's and if they do a two free games package during the summer .

 

[Glonk]

Actually we're talking about the first month were MP outsold SC.

If you actually look at the sales numbers you'll see that infact MP sold the same amount in its second month as it did in its first month.

What was MP's release date, again?

It came out on November 19th. It essentially sold all of "November"'s sales in a week, mostly from pre-orders is my guess, looking at how quickly week sales spiked off in December.

 

[Goldni]

Ha just noticed something interestingly funny. Look at the Dec numbers again.

Top 10 PS2 Games:
------------------------
1) Vice City 1,581,519
2) Dragon Ball: Z:Budokai 787,173
3) Madden NFL 2003 678,412
4) LOTR: Two Towers 554,050
5) Bond 007: Nightfire 488,858
6) Tony Hawk Pro Skater 4 483,954
7) Mortal Kombat 459,076
8) Kingdom Hearts 445,363
9) WWE: Shut Your Mouth 381,194
10) SOCOM 305,680

Top 10 Xbox Games:
--------------------------------
1) Splinter Cell 633,337
2) Ghost Recon 262,019
3) Halo 223,553
4) Mortal Kombat 179,147
5) Mech Assault 174,761
6) Bond 007: Nightfire 171,133
7) Medal of Honor: Frontline 146,216
8) Madden NFL 2003 132,011
9) Unreal Championship 103,556
10) Tony Hawk Pro Skater 4 103,843

Top 10 GC Games :
-------------------------------------
1) Metroid Prime 358,876
2) Mario Party 4 237,369
3) Super Mario Sunshine 177,409
4) Bond 007: Nightfire 148,438
5) Super Smash Bros Melee 131,281
6) Animal Crossing 130,321
7) Harry Potter: Chamber 133,019
8) Resident Evil: 0 111,334
9) Star Fox Adventures 98,899
10) Sonic Mega Collection 119,626



Just looking at the games 1 thru 10 on each platform tells alot about each console's buying audience.

For example. It's painfully easy to tell which one is made up of mostly mainstream casual game buyers who are easily suaded to buy what is currently the 'hot' 'hip' thing. Hint: VC, DBZ, LoTR, TH4 and a Disney and a 'wrastlin' game in the top 10.


Also clear what audience largely buys this:
1. Shooting game
2. Shooting game
3. Shooting game
4. Bloody Fighting game
5. Combat/ shooter game
6. Shooting game
7. Shooting game
8. Sports game
9. Shooting game
10. Sports game
One can surmise that this crowd mainly consist of male teens and twenty somethings that are/have been mostly PC gamers mixed with a percentage of audience that is split between mostly new casual gamer and the slightly older 'tech' buyer (hence the Tom Clancy/WWII games on the chart).


Then you have this:
1. thru
10.

= More variety than the other two put together.

You have adventure genre, party game, platformer adventure, followed by shooter and throw in action, fighting, horror and old classic title. This appears to reveal an audience that is both young and old. Also shows a mix of single and multiplayer games. Maybe an audience that is largely hardcore gamer that likes a variety of games (hence excluding sports games..ie sports genre usually points to casual game buyer). EDIT: Also shows a pretty good percentage of female gamers. Probably alot moreso than the other two systems.

Not a knock on any of the platforms. If you think I'm full of BS that's ok. I've made a hobby over the past few years reviewing what people buy and what it shows about them and the product they chose. The choices people make really do tell alot about them and the actual purchase decision that went into the process. Pretty interesting nonetheless.

Edit: See above.

 

[Lazy8s]

Goldni:

If you think I'm full of BS that's ok

No... I think you've made a very astute observation, actually. It's hard to draw conclusions on just that much, though, but it's definitely a place to start looking at userbase preferences.

 

[wazoo]

For a change, the total installed userbase in France (the small country below UK)

- Playstation 2 : 2 millions.
- Game Boy Advance : 1.1 millions.
- GameCube : 0.345 millions.
- Xbox : 0.220 millions.
(données LSA du 17/01/2003)

 

[Deepak]

For a change, the total installed userbase in France (the small country below UK)