NPD December 2002

[Ozymandis]

I got these from another forum, so I can't be assured of their accuracy, but here:

Top 10 PS2 Games:
------------------------
1) Vice City 1,581,519
2) Dragon Ball: Z:Budokai 787,173
3) Madden NFL 2003 678,412
4) LOTR: Two Towers 554,050
5) Bond 007: Nightfire 488,858
6) Tony Hawk Pro Skater 4 483,954
7) Mortal Kombat 459,076
8) Kingdom Hearts 445,363
9) WWE: Shut Your Mouth 381,194
10) SOCOM 305,680

Top 10 Xbox Games:
--------------------------------
1) Splinter Cell 633,337
2) Ghost Recon 262,019
3) Halo 223,553
4) Mortal Kombat 179,147
5) Mech Assault 174,761
6) Bond 007: Nightfire 171,133
7) Medal of Honor: Frontline 146,216
8) Madden NFL 2003 132,011
9) Unreal Championship 103,556
10) Tony Hawk Pro Skater 4 103,843

Top 10 GC Games :
-------------------------------------
1) Metroid Prime 358,876
2) Mario Party 4 237,369
3) Super Mario Sunshine 177,409
4) Bond 007: Nightfire 148,438
5) Super Smash Bros Melee 131,281
6) Animal Crossing 130,321
7) Harry Potter: Chamber 133,019
8) Resident Evil: 0 111,334
9) Star Fox Adventures 98,899
10) Sonic Mega Collection 119,626 (lower retail)


Top 10 GBA Games:
----------------------------------
1) Yu-gi-oh: Eternal 520,532
2) Zelda: Link to the past 541,955
3) Harry Potter: Chamber 337,467
4) Metroid Fusion 338,893 (lower retail)
5) Yoshi's Island 303,018
6) Kirby: Nightmare 267,727
7) Super Mario Advance 2 256,325
8) Yu-gi-oh! Dark Duel 221,510
9) Spongebob: Dutchman 209,492
10) Dragonball Z: Goku 181,552

Other numbers:
NBA Live PS2 304,414
Harry Potter PS2 280,921

Acclaim
BMX XXX 33,000 (all platforms)
Burnout 2 48,000

Activision
Tony Hawk 4 887,000 (all platforms)
Minority Report 66,000 (all platforms)
Spiderman: the movie 474,000 (all platforms)

EA
Madden 1.1 million (all platforms)
Harry Potter 1.1 million (all platforms)
Bond (all platforms) + LOTR: Two Towers (PS2) = 1.6 million

Midway
Mortal Kombat 752,000 (all platforms)
Defender 47,000 (all platforms)
Dr Muto 29,000 (all platforms)
Haven 8,000 (PS2)

Take 2
GTA 3 105,000
Conflict Desert Storm (PS2, Xbox) 164,000

THQ
Red Faction 68,000 PS2

over 4 million consoles sold during the month
over 2 million GBA's sold during the month

For the year ending 2002
PS2 Growth of 110%
Xbox Growth of 240%
Gamecube Growth of 180%
GBA Growth of 130%

Installed base: (2002 vs 2001)
36.5 million (consoles + GBA) vs 15.5 million (consoles + GBA)

Edit I forgot to add Hardware sales:

December Hardware Sales:

PS2: 2,733,000 (+ 107% over November)
XBOX: 1,033,000 (121+%)
GCN: 619,000 (+32%)
GBA: 2,215,000

Cumulative Installed Base:

PS2: 15,870,000
XBOX: 4,601,000
GCN: 3,583,000
GBA: 11,894,000

Tie Ratios:

PS2: 6.09
XBOX: 4.74
GCN: 4.67
GBA: 2.74

They seem to fall right in line with what I expected

 

[Qroach]

8) waiting patiently for someone to start disputing the numbers, or use the classic walmart excuse...

 

[Peppermonkey]

*insert classic Walmart excuse*



A big ouch for Nintendo's Gamecube.

Nintendo better start doing something drastic.

 

[BenSkywalker]

Very strong month for Sony, picking up 5%-6% in terms of run rate. Good month for the Box too, selling ~1.5Million units. Software tie ins are very strong for the all three platforms. Combined with the installed base that each unit has I think the question of if all three can survive has been answered. With the weakest platform pulling in ~$169Million in soft sales in one month I don't think any platform is going anywhere.

Thanks for posting the numbers Ozy

Johnny-

If these numbers are right, looks like MS was underreporting their numbers again. Based on these they should be between 9-10Million world wide as of 1/1/3. I thought 8Million sounded way too low.

 

[bukima]

Very strong month for Sony, picking up 5%-6% in terms of run rate. Good month for the Box too, selling ~1.5Million units. Software tie ins are very strong for the all three platforms. Combined with the installed base that each unit has I think the question of if all three can survive has been answered. With the weakest platform pulling in ~$169Million in soft sales in one month I don't think any platform is going anywhere.

Thanks for posting the numbers Ozy

Johnny-

If these numbers are right, looks like MS was underreporting their numbers again. Based on these they should be between 9-10Million world wide as of 1/1/3. I thought 8Million sounded way too low.

Are you changing the numbers on purpose? Not that I care that much, but still:

Xbox was not at ~1.5 million. It was at 1.033.000, which is ~1 million
And with Xbox on 4,601,000 in the US, and nothing in Japan, then you would need 5 million Xboxes in Europe to reach 9-10 million - not likely...

Stick to the facts!

 

[marconelly!]

If these numbers are right, looks like MS was underreporting their numbers again. Based on these they should be between 9-10Million world wide as of 1/1/3. I thought 8Million sounded way too low.

Or Maybe your infamous NPD re-calculation is just not as precise as you think it is

I *highly* doubt they would be underreporting this considering just how much they boost and spin their sales in every PR release.

 

[marconelly!]

Here's list for the whole year with run rate percentages per month and for the whole year (courtesy of my Pocket Excell )

 

[Teasy]

Userbase numbers ('fixed' for NPD):

PS2 = 21,424,500
XBox = 6,211,350
GC = 4,837,050

Also Splinter Cell vs Metroid Prime (Total sales and also fixed for NPD):

Splinter Cell = 1,107,241
Metroid Prime = 975,057

Both very close given the userbase difference.

If these numbers are right, looks like MS was underreporting their numbers again.

If NPD's numbers really are only 65% of total numbers then apparently both companies underreported there numbers.. but why would they do that? Are you sure that NPD really isn't more like 80% of total sales?

Based on these they should be between 9-10Million world wide as of 1/1/3.

Not sure where you get that idea. Unless your saying that MS have mis-reported all sales numbers in all regions. In which case both XBox and GC must be at about 10 million now.

 

[Qroach]

That's very true, it's highly unlikey that everyone is under reporting numbers.

 

[Tagrineth]

BMX XXX 33,000 (all platforms)

Looks like the game is selling way past MY expectations!

 

[wazoo]

I can not see one PR department in the world underreporting results. These people are not shy.


NPD is 80%. Some people claimed to have read it on their papers. I do not know.

 

[Legion]

Splinter Cell sold more than MP? Wow.

 

[Magnum PI]

Splinter Cell sold more than MP? Wow.

fortunately you are here to tell it, because nobody saw it...

thank you for enlightening us with your ever very informative posts.

 

[marconelly!]

SC and MP are about equal in overall sales now.

 

[Legion]

I don't know guys.

IIRC The xbox has sold around 320,000 in Japan

the xbox has sold around 4,600,000 in the US

Has the xbox sold over 3,000,000 in Europe? Perhaps the real number is closer to 2.0 - 2.5 million.

That would put them pretty damn close to 8,000,000. They could easily reach their 9 - 10 million install base by mid 2003.

 

[Legion]

SC and MP are about equal in overall sales now.

In the sense that SC has caught up?

 

[Legion]

Splinter Cell sold more than MP? Wow.

fortunately you are here to tell it, because nobody saw it...

thank you for enlightening us with your ever very informative posts.

drop the attitude. I am rather surprised by this. I didn't expect it at all.

 

[Legion]

BMX XXX 33,000 (all platforms)

Looks like the game is selling way past MY expectations!

it deserves a medal. It would be humorous to see it out sell Shenmue 2.

 

[iscariot]

wow, no wonder N is going with that bundle, they pretty much got owned :? And i can't believe GTA Vice already outsold GTA3 already, I mean I knew it would sell, but sh!t that was quick

 

[Johnny Awesome]

NPD is more like 65%.

Ben

Yeah, it looks like MS is under reporting their numbers. They're closer to 6.9 million in the US then, which places the Cube at around 5.4 million in the US + 1.4 million in Europe and 2.7 million in Asia = 9.5 million world-wide, compared to Xbox 6.9 + 1.8 + 850k = 9.55 million.

It's too close to call who is in second world-wide right now, since Korea and Hong Kong are big enough unknows for Nintendo that it is within the 50k margin I calculated above. Not too relevant considering that the Xbox has the momentum compared to Cube right now anyway.

For reference, PS2 is at 23.8 + 12 + 12 = 47.8 million.

World-wide marketshare:

PS2 - 71.5%
Xbox - 14.25%
Cube - 14.25%

Outside of Asia:

PS2 - 35.8 - 69.7%
Xbox - 8.7 - 17 %
Cube - 6.8 - 13.3%

Looks like Cube is undeperforming, Xbox is neutral, and PS2 is overperforming expectations.

I originally wrote (about 8 months ago) that Xbox would reach 12 million by June 2003. Do you think this is possible Ben? I figured on a million in Japan by now though, so that knocks 700k off my estimate right off the bat. Any chance they'll sell 2.45 million Xbox over the next 6 months?