NPD December 2002

[BenSkywalker]

If NPD's numbers really are only 65% of total numbers then apparently both companies underreported there numbers.. but why would they do that? Are you sure that NPD really isn't more like 80% of total sales?

Could you point me to where the companies actually gave out numbers? I've seen one comment from MS saying they sold 'over 8Million' which is what I was referring to, but nothing else from Nin or MS for the US. Sony did have a press release stating they have now shipped 21.48Million( http://www.evilavatar.com/EA/News/M43011/)units for the US market. Figure for units in the pipe and they would be in the 75% range which is a lot better then what I expected NPD would be(depending on how many units are in the pipe, could be higher or lower).

Bukima-

Are you changing the numbers on purpose?

Yes, NPD doesn't report full sales.

Marco-

Or Maybe your infamous NPD re-calculation is just not as precise as you think it is

Looking at PS2 sales it looks like it was a bit off, but Johnny and I both use nigh identical adjustment figures and even if we assume that NPD hit 80% the sales are still lower then what someone reported(not sure who, but the 5.4Million number has been circulating).

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Even though I've been using 65%, I could believe that it's closer to 75%, but not 80%. The problem I've noticed with our 65% figure Ben, is that it would put PS2 sales > than Sony's PS2 shipped numbers.

If we use 75%, then Sony's numbers match pretty well with about 750k units in the channel (30 units per store, approximately).

This would put US numbers at:

Xbox - 4.6 * 1.33 = 6.1 million
PS2 - 21 million
Cube - 4.7 million

I'm not going to bother with the percentage breakdowns, but you're still going to get PS2 - 70%, Xbox - 15%, Cube - 15% marketshare breakdown on a world-wide basis, or thereabouts.

I would have expected Sony to be only around 60% right now, so their definitely outperforming, but I still expect them to lose 10 more points of run-rate in the US this year, most of it going to Xbox (demographic reasons).

Current US run-rates:

PS2 - 62.5%
Xbox - 23.5%
Cube - 14%

My expected run rate at this time next year:

PS2 - 52.5%
Xbox - 31.5%
Cube - 16%

I'll put away my crystal ball now.

 

[BenSkywalker]

Johnny-

Looks like you replied within a minute of my last post-

It's too close to call who is in second world-wide right now, since Korea and Hong Kong are big enough unknows for Nintendo that it is within the 50k margin I calculated above. Not too relevant considering that the Xbox has the momentum compared to Cube right now anyway.

In the US I would agree, in Japan it appears that the Cube is picking up steam(versus the PS2). Not sure on Europe, although in England and Australlia it appears the Box certainly has momentum going.

I originally wrote (about 8 months ago) that Xbox would reach 12 million by June 2003. Do you think this is possible Ben?

I think that is well within reason(could end up being slightly conservative if the Box numbers are where we are figuring them), for both platforms actually. I'm expecting another round of price cuts, from MS due to the new design and reduced cost along with Sony and from Nintendo due to sales pressure in the US(no idea about abroad though).

Any chance they'll sell 2.45 million Xbox over the next 6 months?

They moved ~1.5Million in the US alone in the first six months of '02 prior to the bundle and a good deal prior to the price drop. They also have a much stronger softwate lineup for the first half of this year then they did for '02(all of '02 IMO, but certainly the first half at least). So yes, I think moving ~2.5Million is well within reason, particularly if they have another price drop. The Cube I expect to sell quite a bit below the Box in the US, but in Japan its run rate is about half that of the PS2's which will likely give them enough sales to be in the ~12Million range by the end of 1H '03.

 

[Blade]

MS has done a great job here. Not only did they launch their online service in time for the holidays, but they managed to:

A. Make the DVD remote free via rebate.

B. Give away two quality games for free with the console.

In November (the last month of the rebate) Xbox killed GCN and PS2 in value.

 

[marconelly!]

In the sense that SC has caught up?

Precisely. I think SC is even slightly ahead at this moment, and it's lead will probably keep increasing.

In November (the last month of the rebate) Xbox killed GCN and PS2 in value.

Only if you consider the basic package. You can't deny that for PS2 you can buy most of it's best games for $20. Hardly something that doesn't hold a good value.

 

[Glonk]

Could you point me to where the companies actually gave out numbers? I've seen one comment from MS saying they sold 'over 8Million' which is what I was referring to, but nothing else from Nin or MS for the US.

MS broke the figures down into North America, Europe, and Oceania/Asia.

850K in Oceania/Asia, 1.8M in Europe, 5.4M in North America.

Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030116/tech_microsoft_xbox_1.html

Of the total sold to date, 5.4 million units were sold in North America, 1.8 million were sold in Europe and about 850,000 were sold in the Asia-Pacific region, with just less than half of those in Japan.

I also don't understand the people saying SC has almost caught up, or something to that effect? Correct me if I'm wrong, but SC outsold MP? What am I missing?

 

[Teasy]

Splinter Cell sold more than MP? Wow.

I don't really see what's so "wow" about it. Splinter Cell was THE game this year on XBox, with a 6.1 million userbase and sold 1.1 million. Vs THE game this year on GC with its 4.8 million userbase which sold 975,000. Prime did very well to sell almost equally with SC with a lesser userbase. Due not doubt to it being most people's game of the year.

 

[Vince]

Could you point me to where the companies actually gave out numbers? I've seen one comment from MS saying they sold 'over 8Million' which is what I was referring to, but nothing else from Nin or MS for the US.

Ben, I realize Johnney gets off messing with the numbers; but do you believe that Microsoft's PR - the embodiment of the How to lie with Statistics ideal - would under represent their numbers? I mean, they already talk about the mystical WalMart-Gap (related to the Missile-Gap of the '50s) and how the discriminatory NPD is dropping the proverbial F-Bomb on them, and they issue a press release every time one of their games outsells a PS2 or Nintendo game, or when their tie-in rate beats PS2's over the first x months of it's life. I mean I'd hope they could do a better job, no?

Besides, Glonk has shown us the light.

 

[Lazy8s]

Other companies are just as "creative" with their numbers as Microsoft. I believe Sony counts shipments to their own distribution warehouses as "units shipped". Now, it probably doesn't make a huge difference considering they're so far ahead of everyone else in actual sales, but it definitely skews the numbers.

 

[Goldni]

Holy crap Metroid Prime did really good given the size of user base it had to work with. It should easily pass Super Smash Bros as the best selling GCN game.

Ben, what do you think about NOA's new bundle deal (with one free game)? I think it was a good idea to have the 4 choices cause whichever game get's 'rung up' at the cash register will count as a seperate skew # and therefore count for a sold unit (unlike XB' JSFR & SGT). This will help with the GCN 's tie ratio and give MP (since it's one of the 4 choices) alot more 'legs'.

Also while not as effective as a price cut would be, it will help that after Christmas drop off in sales this time of year. Hence helping NCL reach, or should easily surpass, the 10 million units projection by March 31.

 

[marconelly!]

I also don't understand the people saying SC has almost caught up, or something to that effect? Correct me if I'm wrong, but SC outsold MP? What am I missing?

SC outsold MP in december, but the *overall* sales since their release are pretty much equal right now, SC being slightly ahead.

 

[Glonk]

Ah, I see, we're talking about the one week or so where Metroid Prime outsold SC because of all of the diehard N-fans with preorders.

 

[marconelly!]

Ah, I see, we're talking about the one week or so where Metroid Prime outsold SC because of all of the diehard N-fans with preorders.

Pretty much yes. MP outsold SC in that week by quite a large margin.

 

[Goldni]

With the numbers I'm coming up with the GBA will have caught and passed by PS2's global numbers in about 2 months. And I'm not really figuring in the GBA SP's launch Feb in Japan and the rest of the world in March.

 

[Deepak]

With the numbers I'm coming up with the GBA will have caught and passed by PS2's global numbers in about 2 months. And I'm not really figuring in the GBA SP's launch Feb in Japan and the rest of the world in March.

Wake up buddy....! make some sense! GBA vs PS2

 

[wazoo]

Looks like Cube is undeperforming, Xbox is neutral, and PS2 is overperforming expectations.

I agree about this from a consoles sales point of view. The question (I can't answer) is how much would it have costed to Nintendo to react to MS marketing blitz ?? Can they react without bleeding money ?? Are they forced to stay in their niche market waiting for the storm to stop ?? At the end of the year, nonetheless, they will have gain more money than MS on the console front, which iis what is matters. They can not count on Office to pay for the debt.

Holy crap Metroid Prime did really good given the size of user base it had to work with. It should easily pass Super Smash Bros as the best selling GCN game.

SMS is ahead or comparable to SSB in a shorter period of time. No way in hell, MP sold more than SMS, it has no history in Europe and Japan is big unknown.

SC outsold MP in december, but the *overall* sales since their release are pretty much equal right now, SC being slightly ahead

SC on the xbox for 3 months was the best marketing decision of the year. SC on ps2 (and Gc) will make money just based on the xbox hype. It is much easier (when the game is good) to get good sales on a relatively niche console and port it to the leader afterwards. Myst did that with the MAC for example.

 

[Teasy]

Ah, I see, we're talking about the one week or so where Metroid Prime outsold SC

Actually we're talking about the first month were MP outsold SC.

because of all of the diehard N-fans with preorders

If you actually look at the sales numbers you'll see that infact MP sold the same amount in its second month as it did in its first month.

 

[Qroach]

SC also sold better in the second month compared to the first. The only real excuse I've seen is how people have switched from betting MP would out sell SC before christmas to the "it's sold really good considering the size of the user base"

Also when did MP come out in stores? was it november?

 

[Goldni]

Hey Dickpak, what's your beef with GBA? It IS a game machine. PS2 is a game machine. Two different types, yes , but still that does'nt stop the lil ole GBA from being considered probably the funnest game console out right now. In fact GBA was my favorite place for games in 2002. It's not my problem that it'll catch the PS2 before long. It already has in Japan. It's only a mater of time before it passes by the PS2 here in the US. Nothing wrong with that.

Wazoo, I was talking about MP vs SSBM in US terms. MP should pass it here easily.

 

[Goldni]

Qraoch, Who's making excuses for MP sales? IT's done very good. I really did'nt think it'd be at a million in just over a month of release. What excuse? How many first time development studios get to say that thier first game (collectively) sells over a million units?

Also if you factor in the userbase sizes of the XB vs GCN, MP tied in better than SC did. Using MP's numbers doing what it has on GCN it'd had sold about 50,000 units more on XB than SC did.