Nintendo's future?

[StefanS]

5 pages transcript of Reggie's speech:

http://ds.ign.com/articles/664/664482p1.html

It touches upon Revolution and DS and how the design philosophies behind these device are symbolic of Nintendo's way of approaching the market. They're focused on expanding the marketplace and thus their audience. Additionally, they want to change it (Quote: "disrupt") by new unseen approaches to gaming. Some interesting tidbits:

Let's look at the install base for the last four generations. First thing to note: As recently as about a year ago, projections were made that the current generation would reach 60 Million household penetration: Ain't gonna happen. Ain't gonna happen. Another couple tidbits: So this chart is pure number of units sold. It doesn't take into account duplicate ownership, and doesn't take into account population growth. You overlay those two facts to get a percent population with a console in the household, and that's what it looks like. 8 Bit years, 31% of households had a gaming system. This year, where is going to end up? Somewhere between 31-32%. The growth we have seen has been driven by population growth, and by duplicate ownership.

young teens= 10-14 y.o.

This is a study from Piper Jalfray. They have been doing this for the last three half-yearly installments. This looks at young teens, and who is increasing their game play, and who is decreasing their game play; just a rough measure. The red is the % of teens that are saying they are decreasing the amount of time they are playing games. It's gone up; gone up fairly consistently every time they have run this study. And the amount of teens that say they have increased their game play have been stagnant, and down fairly substantially from fall of 04.

Nintendogs...
And on a worldwide basis it sold 2 Million units, against an installed base of about 8 Million. 24% penetration; that is huge. Absolutely huge.

Obviously Nintendo WiFi Connection. This we believe is another example of being disruptive in the marketplace. This is not the first online system, but it is certainly an online approach that is fundamentally different than what has been done. Free to the consumer, hot spot driven, wireless that is driving portability. Also games that are focused on delivering a great experience in a wireless online mode.
...
it is very important that the consumer understand what we are doing with WiFi Connection. We need to communicate the core benefits: The match making, the free connection, and the ease. So we have created a specific piece of advertising to drive that messaging

Revolution aspect. We have already talked about "Virtual Console" and making that available. We have shared some information in terms of the controller. I had an opportunity to demo the controller and it really is fantastic. As far as what you can do, the range of motion, and the feedback that you get… What I am trilled about and truly enjoy in the follow-up conversations with NCL are all the possibilities that are out there. All of the things we can bring to market.
...
he thing that I am really excited about is as we have shared the technology and the capability with the developers… how they responded. And it is not simply a Japanese developer who is living in their market contraction, but EA, Activision, and Ubisoft who are all stepping back and saying "wow, this is provocative and I can see ways of creating games and new ways of bringing existing franchises to life."
...
So we have touched on Revolution in the past, and the whole litany of benefits. Certainly backward compatibility with the game cube, the idea of the "Virtual Console," the WiFi integration out of the box. We are seeing very strong 3rd party support, and already talks about exclusive titles that will truly make use of the revolution controller and everything we are bringing in the machine. Affordability: Certainly from the standpoint of being a single-minded gaming device, it will absolutely be much more affordable than any of the other competing systems, and certainly on track to launch in 2006.

Q&A

Q: You mention Wayport and McDonalds. Will this only work at McDonalds and those hotspots or will it work at any Wayport hotspot?

A: It will work at any of the 6,000 + McDonalds hotspots and a limited number of T-Mobile hotspots. That is why we are driving consumers to Nintendo WiFi Connection. That is where you can put in your address and up pops all of the hotspots where it will work seamlessly.

Q: What about home configurations and WPA (Secured Networks)?

A: Nintendo WiFi Connection has all of the information in terms of which existing routers are compatible and which ones have the best compatibility. It's all there. In terms of the different authentications, all the info is there and it will be very easy for the consumer. That was our goal from the start; we wanted a consumer whether they have a LAN line and the USB connector, or whether you have an existing router… it is all there on Nintendo WiFi Connection.

Q: At E3 you had a demo of voice chat and online chat support. Is that something that is going to be pursued?

A: There is a lot of testing going on, and we thought it was something intriguing enough to show at E3 as a tech demo, and is maybe something that is incorporated into a game in the future. We'll look into it. It is certainly something that intrigues us.

Q: I'm curious what your thoughts are on having DS as a web browser. Is that soothing you are going to steer clear of since it is a kids platform or is that something you could look into?

A: Actually having a web browser on the DS? I think it is a provocative idea. I think it is very provocative. And again, looking at it with our "Disruptor Lens" by saying "how can we bring new people on board to buy DS and play DS" I think having a web browser would be highly disruptive; I would love to do it

Some interesting tidbits...

 

[Powderkeg]

Sometimes I think Nintendo employees really do live in an alternate reality.

Someone should inform him that the nearly 140 million consoles, millions more gaming PC's, and god knows how many handheld gaming systems sold this generation ended up in more than just 60 million homes. "Not going to happen" is technically correct, but only because it happened a long time ago so it can't happen in the future.

 

[Teasy]

We have gone to great pains here today to paint for you a gloomy scenario for the potential of the U.S. marketplace.

He was talking about the US market not the worldwide market. Maybe you could take the time to read the whole article before you start your usual Nintendo bashing?

 

[Powderkeg]

He was talking about the US market not the worldwide market. Maybe you could take the time to read the whole article before you start your usual Nintendo bashing?

If he was talking about the US alone then he is even more wrong, because the 8-bit generation never had anywhere close to a 31% market penetration in the US.

Only about 60 million NES systems were sold in total. Only 20 million of those went to the US. Since the only other 8-bit system that sold even mildly well was the Sega Master System (Only around 2 million total sold) that would make him off by almost 40 million systems.

In otherwords, actual 8-bit market penetration in the US was only about 33% of what he claimed.

 

[Corwin_B]

As suggested, you may want to read the actual article, since the "60 millions households claim" relates to predictions done for the current generation, which Fils-Aime claims were completely wrong.

http://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1129.pdf

In 1995 (already a fair bit later than the 8-bits area), there were 68 millions households in the US. 31% of that gives us roughly 21 millions, which is consistent with the 20 millions NES number you provided...

 

[Powderkeg]

In 1995 (already a fair bit later than the 8-bits area), there were 68 millions households in the US. 31% of that gives us roughly 21 millions, which is consistent with the 20 millions NES number you provided...

The math still isn't working.

That means slightly less than 33 million households in the US would have a gaming system.

Now, somewhere around 38 million PS2's alone have been sold in North America, with alittle over 33 million of those ending up in the US.

So, every single person who has a gaming system (Of any kind) in the US owns a PS2, and some of those have bought replacements for their other PS2's.

Or, he is wrong.

Take your pick.

 

[Powderkeg]

BTW, just to clarify, the 33 million household estimate is based off 2002 US census data and when I said "every single person" I meant every single household.

 

[standing ovation]

Well, I think the explanation sounds reasonable enough. As a percentage, console penetration has remained fairly stagnate -- despite rabid sales -- because of population growth and duplicate purchases.

In other words, although more households are buying consoles only a fraction of this population are actively using them.

 

[Ooh-videogames]

The math still isn't working.

That means slightly less than 33 million households in the US would have a gaming system.

Now, somewhere around 38 million PS2's alone have been sold in North America, with alittle over 33 million of those ending up in the US.

So, every single person who has a gaming system (Of any kind) in the US owns a PS2, and some of those have bought replacements for their other PS2's.

Or, he is wrong.

Take your pick.

If you read the whole article you'll notice that he mentions "duplicate consoles", meaning replacements. GAF have pics of the slides used to show the trends.

 

[darkblu]

nice find, hupfinsgack. i'm starting to get the feeling that of all three console players nintendo may actually have the clearest idea of what and how they're doing; plus the lack of blatant hype in the interview was a nice change from the your casual console read these days.

 

[mckmas8808]

nice find, hupfinsgack. i'm starting to get the feeling that of all three console players nintendo may actually have the clearest idea of what and how they're doing; plus the lack of blatant hype in the interview was a nice change from the your casual console read these days.

Well to me the did kinda super hyped what their controller can do for gaming. But hey thats just me.

 

[PC-Engine]

Well to me the did kinda super hyped what their controller can do for gaming. But hey thats just me.

I don't think they overly hyped it at all. They have a unique controller so they naturally would want to tell the world about what can be done with it. The fact they demonstrated the new controller with an existing game (MP) was enough to show that it wasn't hype but in fact real. This was just one genre too. The touchscreen on the DS was the same thing...it's real and its use speaks for itself. Hype is something like KZ...

 

[mckmas8808]

I don't think they overly hyped it at all. They have a unique controller so they naturally would want to tell the world about what can be done with it. The fact they demonstrated the new controller with an existing game (MP) was enough to show that it wasn't hype but in fact real. This was just one genre too. The touchscreen on the DS was the same thing...it's real and its use speaks for itself. Hype is something like KZ...

How can KZ be hype when you don't even know what product they have behind closed doors? Some people feel as if the Revolution controller is hype. And some people feel as if what Sony showed at E3 is hype. And I personally feel that MS hyping their development tools is hype.

So everyones hyping these days.

 

[darkblu]

How can KZ be hype when you don't even know what product they have behind closed doors? Some people feel as if the Revolution controller is hype. And some people feel as if what Sony showed at E3 is hype. And I personally feel that MS hyping their development tools is hype.

So everyones hyping these days.

maybe you believe that revo's controller will not offer any new game experience whatsoever? or you see the competition having the same/similar controlling schemes?

no matter what you consider hype, fact is revolution's controller has been promoted so far by ninty as: first, unique (read: not available in the competition), and second, opening many new possibilities for controlling schemes - and you can be sure as hell ninty will not miss the opportunity to actually release some original game or two to make good use of their controller. so where's the hype? if you mean that ninty are trying to attract attention to their next console at all - well, duh.

if you want to know what's hype - it is flops ratings. there's no guarantee whatsoever they'll be ever achieved in-game. and to what gameplay experience this would translate if actually ever achieved. of course there are always 'media-educated' consumers to step up and boldly proclaim that they make educated choices based on 'flop ratings' and 'number of pixel pipelines', and thus that info is not hype but is useful 'decision-making-helping' and blah-blah. jeez, you have no idea how ridiculously stupid those claims sound in a game developer's ears. one philosopher once said in ancient times - 'i know that i know next to nothing, and i pitty those who think they know more'.

 

[mckmas8808]

maybe you believe that revo's controller will not offer any new game experience whatsoever? or you see the competition having the same/similar controlling schemes?

no matter what you consider hype, fact is revolution's controller has been promoted so far by ninty as: first, unique (read: not available in the competition), and second, opening many new possibilities for controlling schemes - and you can be sure as hell ninty will not miss the opportunity to actually release some original game or two to make good use of their controller. so where's the hype? if you mean that ninty are trying to attract attention to their next console at all - well, duh.

if you want to know what's hype - it is flops ratings. there's no guarantee whatsoever they'll be ever achieved in-game. and to what gameplay experience this would translate if actually ever achieved. of course there are always 'media-educated' consumers to step up and boldly proclaim that they make educated choices based on 'flop ratings' and 'number of pixel pipelines', and thus that info is not hype but is useful 'decision-making-helping' and blah-blah. jeez, you have no idea how ridiculously stupid those claims sound in a game developer's ears. one philosopher once said in ancient times - 'i know that i know next to nothing, and i pitty those who think they know more'.

Great post. You're pretty hit the nail on the head.

 

[Magnum PI]

Sometimes I think Nintendo employees really do live in an alternate reality.

It seems more that this is you who is living in an alternate reality.

You didn't even read the whole article, and what you read was severely transfigured by the deforming mirror of you strong bias.

You cast doubt on professionnal people who really studied the question and know what they are talking about, claiming that you know better than them.

But how can you pretend to give lessons to them, when you act like an horse with blinders.

 

[oli2]

I think it's not worth responding to Powderkeg. He sometimes makes some valid points but, when you answer to him, as soon as you are not 100% in agreement with him, "birds names" like "f.nboy !" rapidly come into the conversation ...

 

[Rodéric]

Ok people, I think we forgot to tell you about something, Beyond3D forums (especially the Console Forum) is a bit like a zoo, remember the warnings "Don't feed animals" ?
Here we have a slightly different one : "Don't answer red squared people."

Makes Moderators life easier.

 

[Magnum PI]

i do not understand what is "red squared people", what is it ?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

i do not understand what is "red squared people", what is it ?

It's the square under everybodys nick, it's reputation given by other members, red is bad green is good.