Nintendo stategy with Wii

[Flux]

What if nintendo undercuts its competition with Wii's hardware so that at PS3 is trapped in a way? (cost,#units available, very safe low budget games) Then they wait until PS3 starts to mature(graphics,exclusives released,effects)and release "Wii 2".The Wii 2 is more powerful then PS3 or 360.Wii 2 can be marketed as a "hardcore/high end console with motion sensing control setup" while Wii is marketed as "everyone of all ages(not just the 18-25 age group) and both sexes can play with motion sensing control setup". Microsoft then releases "Xbox720" which is more powerful then Wii 2. With Sony taking the losses on PS3 they can't release another console because of more losses.PS3 would then be competing with 4 platforms Wii,Xbox360,Wii 2, Xbox720.

Microsoft would be safe because of its success with the 360. Nintendo will be safe because they sold the most(assuming that the Wii vs PS3 will be like DS vs PSP). Spending another $2 billion on PS4 R&D while trying to manufacture developer support that went to 360 mostly would be dangerous.

I think Microsoft Entertainment Division and Nintendo took advantage of SCE poor decisions on PS3 and are setting them up accordingly.


What 2006-2007 tech can Wii 2 have in 2010-2011.

http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800436458_1034362_a6b7f692200610.HTM

Would a 32nm(planned for 2008 by IBM) 2.5GHz 970GX be feasible as a gaming CPU?

How much would a PPU($200 retail right now) card cost in 2010-2011?

What would a Radeon X1800 cost ($250?) cost in 2010-2011?

 

[Cheezdoodles]

What would a Radeon X1800 cost ($250?) cost in 2010-2011?

It would cost more because ATI wouldnt be making that anymore.

 

[Rainbow Man]

What if

..Huge flying saucers arrive from outer space and shoots beams of fire onto the empire state building and the white house and all the othre big cities around the world?

Then we'd have no use for any Wii 2 or xbox 720s or anything like that.

Seriously now I don't see the point in speculatiion threads. When anyone can make anything up then what's the point.

Peace.

 

[infinity4]

we are only few months into next generation of games consoles and some people are already discussing future of future... chill out mate

 

[Deepak]

..Huge flying saucers arrive from outer space and shoots beams of fire onto the empire state building and the white house and all the othre big cities around the world?

Then we'd have no use for any Wii 2 or xbox 720s or anything like that.

Seriously now I don't see the point in speculatiion threads. When anyone can make anything up then what's the point.

Peace.

, B3D is seeing too many of them these days.

 

[zed]

ive mentioned this before
yes the wii2 will be the first of the next gen consoles out, but i think youre late with the 2010-2011 date, i'm reasonably certain it will come out in 2009 + would stick money on it if i could, btw nice one ponting my son last night. pointless (+ boring) saying what its hardware will be, the only thing that u can guarantee is backwards compatibly with the wii

 

[ninzel]

Reggie said 4-6 years for Wii. That's all we know as of now.
I think a lot of people assume the Wii will be the first to be replaced because it's the least powerful,but I think that's just people projecting their personal bias with regards to system power. Nintendo doesn't care about satisfying the wet dreams of hardcore tech junkies. If its serves their business goals to replace it with a more powerful system early then fine but more likely they will milk every last day out of the Wii as opposed to spending the millions involved in launching a new system,sooner than they have to.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Look, why do some of you think there will be a wii2 very fast? there is absolutely no good reason for it. The consumer will be pissed that he has to buy a new system after only 3 years. Devs will be pissed they can start over with everything after only 3 years, no time to cash out on the system. Nintendo has to start all over with their market share etc.

Unless the Wii becomes a total failure there isnt any reason to launch a wii2 long before the next xbox and ps. And dont forget the wii isnt focussed on gfx anyway so it would be very stupid to launch a new system after 3 years because you apperantly do care about the gfx. Than they might as well put better hardware in the Wii because that would give them alot less trouble than launching a new faster system after only 3 years.

 

[ninzel]

Look, why do some of you think there will be a wii2 very fast?.

Because some people just haven't come to terms with what the Wii is... or is not depending how you put it.

 

[borowki]

What if nintendo undercuts its competition with Wii's hardware so that at PS3 is trapped in a way? (cost,#units available, very safe low budget games) Then they wait until PS3 starts to mature(graphics,exclusives released,effects)and release "Wii 2".The Wii 2 is more powerful then PS3 or 360.Wii 2 can be marketed as a "hardcore/high end console with motion sensing control setup" while Wii is marketed as "everyone of all ages(not just the 18-25 age group) and both sexes can play with motion sensing control setup".

Nintendo's new strategy for in the console space is to not fight the specs war. I don't see why they'd abandon it when it seems to work so well.

Nintendo is going to take a more evolutionary approach this time I think. Looking back,
the company has lost market share with each big generational shift. Compare that with their successful portable business, where the transitions were more seamless. It's more prudent to upgrade the Wii than to replace it. A Radeon-9800-class GPU might add 50 bucks to the console's cost. While still less powerful than its rivals, it wouldn't be completely outclassed visually. Developers shouldn't find it too difficult to support both old and new models. Just a matter of creating different sets of artworks.

 

[CreativeWriter]

What if nintendo undercuts its competition with Wii's hardware so that at PS3 is trapped in a way? (cost,#units available, very safe low budget games) Then they wait until PS3 starts to mature(graphics,exclusives released,effects)and release "Wii 2".The Wii 2 is more powerful then PS3 or 360.Wii 2 can be marketed as a "hardcore/high end console with motion sensing control setup" while Wii is marketed as "everyone of all ages(not just the 18-25 age group) and both sexes can play with motion sensing control setup". Microsoft then releases "Xbox720" which is more powerful then Wii 2. With Sony taking the losses on PS3 they can't release another console because of more losses.PS3 would then be competing with 4 platforms Wii,Xbox360,Wii 2, Xbox720.

IMO, most of the R&D money for PS4 was spent for PS3. It's not feasible to spend that kind of money each gen. I expect PS4 to be multi-layer/higher-speed blu-ray, upgraded cell(s), and a next-gen NVidea chip. Maybe, maybe they spend money on a more "cell-like" GPU, but in your strange scenario I'd imagine Sony would simply push out a cost-neutral PS4 early... or they could just rely on PS2 to outsell x720 .

 

[zed]

Reggie said 4-6 years for Wii.

true the wii gonna be around for 4-6 years, but a new model will come out before that time eg ps1 was around 10years but the ps2 came out after ~5years

Look, why do some of you think there will be a wii2 very fast? there is absolutely no good reason for it.

profits, look at the wii its been out what 2 months + has sold 4 million == ~2million a month, each unit has been sold for a profit. im guessing during the middle of this year they wont be selling 2million a month (initial buzz over), of all the next-gen consoles the wii developement costs are by far the lowest.
who knows what the wii2 is gonna be, perhaps the only difference is that wii games will run at HD resolutions (due to better gpu), ie a developer can target the wii + wii2 with the same game

The consumer will be pissed that he has to buy a new system after only 3 years. Devs will be pissed they can start over with everything after only 3 years, no time to cash out on the system

check out nintendo's handhelds history
gameboy 1989
gameboy pocket 1996
Game Boy Light 1997
Game Boy Color 1998
gameboy advance 2001
gameboy advance SP 2003
nintendo DS 2004
nintendo DS lite 2006

true some of the revisions are merely ascetic, but i assume each revision is more desirable than the preceeding ones.
were the punters that brought a DS in 2005 pissed off that the DS lite came out next year?
perhaps, it didnt stop ppl enmass buying the DSlite + making it a huge success == lots of profits for nintendo

 

[Rolf N]

FWIW I expect a slightly improved Wii2 or Super Wii very early, maybe already in '08. There are of course a number of things that are low-hanging fruit for a revision, and they won't be very expensive to do (even now, let alone in 2008). However, expecting a machine with world-beating technology is IMO unreasonable.

I do expect a mandatory res bump to 720p, but with an enforcement of software compatibility, forwards and backwards, with the current Wii.
The ('ropean) Wii already supports multiple resolution targets (480i60, 576i50 both in 4:3 and 16:9, 480p60), which is an absolute first for a Nintendo system. Hence developers will have to start learning to not rely on exact buffer sizes anyway. A further bump to 720p might actually work transparently even with the games that are out today.

+more flash memory of course, and maybe a new card-reader for whatever physical format dominates the digital camera market at the time

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

profits, look at the wii its been out what 2 months + has sold 4 million == ~2million a month, each unit has been sold for a profit. im guessing during the middle of this year they wont be selling 2million a month (initial buzz over), of all the next-gen consoles the wii developement costs are by far the lowest.
who knows what the wii2 is gonna be, perhaps the only difference is that wii games will run at HD resolutions (due to better gpu), ie a developer can target the wii + wii2 with the same game

Like I said, in the end you want make a profit changing your console every 3 years because it will piss of the devs, piss of the consumers (will you buy a wii2 just 3 years, or even less for most people, after you bought the first one?), and it will also only cost nintendo money. You can earn alot more with selling software on your console than you can earn with selling consoles. And starting over with a new console wont get you big software sales.

true some of the revisions are merely ascetic, but i assume each revision is more desirable than the preceeding ones.
were the punters that brought a DS in 2005 pissed off that the DS lite came out next year?
perhaps, it didnt stop ppl enmass buying the DSlite + making it a huge success == lots of profits for nintendo

The handheld market it different from the console market though. Handhelds are alot cheaper both in cost as in dev cost so its alot easier to maintain 2 different products and because of the BC you got a even bigger market. You can also have that in wii2, but devs probably dont want to maintain 2 systems wich are basically the same exept for a small change in performance. So they have to choose between a product with a 10 - 30million install base or a complete new product with little improvements and consumers probably care alot less about BC in a console.

Nintendo can get away with it in the handheld market because of cost and the fact that they basically got the whole market to themselves. They cant do that on the console market and they probably wont even want to do that because its just to expansive to keep 2 consoles alive and its also not a smart move for the reasons I mentioned above.

 

[Oblivion]

Why would Nintendo be the first to market? Cause they have the weakest hardware? That didn't stop them from launching last with the Wii. I don't see Nintendo ever bothering with 360/PS3 level power for at least 10 years. I mean, if Wii takes off, why the heck would they need to? It'll just bolster Nintendo's "graphics don't matter" mentality. So why bother going with super powerful hardware, if it'll only satisfy a minority of the gaming crowd, when you could go after a bigger piece of the pie and get even richer while you're at it?

I think it'll be more interesting to see how Wii's potential success could affect the competitors. Why would Sony and MS want to go with bleeding edge tech if it doesn't even matter for the majority? I certainly don't think Sony and MS would regress, but they would probably go with Nintendo's console turbo approach. See, it was different in the past because every manufacturer felt that you NEEDED to provide competitive hardware. But this is the first completely different case, and it'll change everything in the future imo.

 

[zed]

FWIW I expect a slightly improved Wii2 or Super Wii very early, maybe already in '08. There are of course a number of things that are low-hanging fruit for a revision, and they won't be very expensive to do (even now, let alone in 2008). However, expecting a machine with world-beating technology is IMO unreasonable.

I do expect a mandatory res bump to 720p, but with an enforcement of software compatibility, forwards and backwards, with the current Wii.
The ('ropean) Wii already supports multiple resolution targets (480i60, 576i50 both in 4:3 and 16:9, 480p60), which is an absolute first for a Nintendo system. Hence developers will have to start learning to not rely on exact buffer sizes anyway. A further bump to 720p might actually work transparently even with the games that are out today.

+more flash memory of course, and maybe a new card-reader for whatever physical format dominates the digital camera market at the time

exactly my prediction, im guessing it will be called the wii HD ( prenounced wee-ed ), you heard it here first

because it will piss of the devs, piss of the consumers (will you buy a wii2 just 3 years, or even less for most people, after you bought the first one?)

the consumers lap it up , sure a lot of ppl moaned on forumboards about the DS lite being released so soon after the DS (plenty of other examples in nintendos history).
like i + zeckensack mentioned perhaps the major difference between the wii + the wii-hd is just a more faster gpu, thus games can run at 720p instead or 480p. for the devs supporting a different resolution is a piece of piss (enuf scatology for now)

Why would Nintendo be the first to market? Cause they have the weakest hardware?

no, to maintain momentum, nintendo have done this in the past
gameboy pocket started lossing momentum (sales) what did they do? came out with the gb color, same with nintendo DS -> nintendo DS lite.

yeah perhaps zeckensack is right even xmas 2008 we could see the launch of the wii-hd.

 

[Rolf N]

The handheld market it different from the console market though. Handhelds are alot cheaper both in cost as in dev cost so its alot easier to maintain 2 different products and because of the BC you got a even bigger market. You can also have that in wii2, but devs probably dont want to maintain 2 systems wich are basically the same exept for a small change in performance. So they have to choose between a product with a 10 - 30million install base or a complete new product with little improvements and consumers probably care alot less about BC in a console.

This isn't the only way to do it, and sure enough the DSlite, nor even the Gameboy Color, didn't have any of the problems you portray by design. Nintendo took ane effort to avoid problems, and they can probably do it again.
The DS lite is the exact same processing hardware in a revised physical shell. The Gameboy Color added some processing capability, but also improved legacy software, so that was still a viable format for a developer to pursue for a good while after the GBC's launch.

Nintendo can get away with it in the handheld market because of cost and the fact that they basically got the whole market to themselves.

No.
They could do it in the handheld market because they did it so carefully. Software-compatibility was taken great care of through most of their handheld revisions, with the exception being the Gameboy micro.

Having perfect software compatibility across product revisions ensures that the market stays alive and unified, both for developers and for consumers, but beyond that it also emulates a trick from the PC industry: people upgrade. I don't have numbers to back it up but I think the percentage of DS-phat owners who later got a DS lite is pretty significant. I know I'm in that group. Essentially if it wasn't "just a phase" and you continue to use the darn thing a lot, you'll be relatively inclined to pay again for a model that brings you tangible improvements.

 

[borowki]

exactly my prediction, im guessing it will be called the wii HD ( prenounced wee-ed ), you heard it here first

Wii-Hi rolls off the tongue more easily. Looks better in a logo too.

no, to maintain momentum, nintendo have done this in the past
gameboy pocket started lossing momentum (sales) what did they do? came out with the gb color, same with nintendo DS -> nintendo DS lite.

It'd also allow them to re-release current Wii titles with improved graphics. Zelda: Twilight Princese HD would probably sell a million copies.

 

[kyleb]

Or better yet they could sell millions of Wii HDs by designing it to render Twilight Princess along with every other Wii game, GameCube game and Virtual Console game in HD.

 

[quest55720]

I just don't see them doing it atleast for 4 years. It would end up splitting the user base and they are not stupid enough to do that. With the DS and DSL the same games work on each just a cosmetic and shrinking change. The GBA to GBA sp both could play the same games just one had a back lit screen and internal recharge able battery. I just don't see nintendo messing with a cash cow any time soon. A bunch of colors and special addition Wiis sure I know that will happen but not any new hardware for many years. I don't know why they would mess with a great money making model the Wii is. They don't lose on hardware and game devlopment costs are cheaper. The profits from selling a Wii game are going to be much more than a HD game just because of development costs. Look at the DS how much pure profit must games like nintendogs or brain training make? I just don't see Wii sports costing that much to make.