I've been thinking about the NX hardware a little bit again, and I'd like to throw some of it out there, if that's cool. Particularly the use of finFETs and if that technology will be feasible for Nintendo to use is something that has interested me.
Looking at the projected price per transistor of finFETs vs 28nm, it's quite clear that 28nm will still offer great savings next year. Simply put, if Nintendo value price and performance, 28nm is the way to go. They can afford more transistors for their money. However, I've come across several quotes from the Nintendo execs which might indicate thaat price/performance are not their priorities.
Iwata said:
Consumers will purchase high quality products even if they are expensive, or in other words, even if there are slightly reasonable discount offers, consumers will not purchase products unless they truly understand and are satisfied with the quality.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/150217qa/03.html
Miyamoto said:
When we have meetings to discuss these subjects with many people, however, the opinions and the possible conclusions of the meetings tend to move forward in the same direction. Specifically, they tend to revolve around “Which one of these possible technologies is of the highest performance?” and “Which one will eventually be the most affordable?” When younger people start talking in this fashion, people like me make a point of stressing the importance of the product having one very clear-cut unique point.
Nintendo are clearly not averse to using expensive technology if it is harmonious with that particular console's design philosophy.
Further, if Nintendo were to use 28nm and performance was in Xbone/PS4 ballpark, the console would only probably be slightly smaller than the competition. That's never been Nintendo's style. Even this past year, Miyamoto stressed how they like their consoles to be different and how they take into consideration where the console will be placed in the home. It seems more likely to me that Nintendo is planning another small low-TDP console. More quotes:
Takeda's Eulogy at Iwata's funeral said:
You succeeded in planting the seed in employees' hearts that, in order to solve an issue, there is a fundamental cycle whereby you make a hypothesis, execute the plan, see the result and then make adjustments, and by which you have caringly nurtured these seeds to sprout and mature into plants.
http://www.polygon.com/2015/7/17/8996339/satoru-iwata-eulogy-genyo-takeda-nintendo
Iwata believe in making necessary adjustments, not doing complete 180s.
Takeda said:
Of course, the issue of performance was not secondary. Anyone can realize “low performance with low power.” Others tend to aim for “high performance with high power.” With Wii however, Nintendo alone has pursued “high performance with low power consumption.”
http://iwataasks.nintendo.com/interviews/#/wii/wii_console/0/0
Of course, we can laugh about what he means by "high performance," (I would hate to see his idea of low). This philosophy did not change with Wii U. I imagine that today, "low performance" would be something like an Android TV device.
As console size and "being different" has long been a priority at Nintendo, I believe finFET will be used, not for extra horsepower, but for lower TDP. The implications of using finFET will be that Nintendo can afford less transistors, so they will need a smaller chip to offer a price advantage. Something like 8 CUs at 1000 Mhz could possibly allow them to undercut Xbone on price. This would make it something like 2x NVidia Tegra X1, which on finFET, should be doable in a very small box.
Another reason I'm thinking finFET is because I believe that the NX SoC started as a semicustom "Project Skybridge" part. Skybridge was essentially AMD's way of getting into ARM APUs. Semicustom was specifically mentioned as one of the central markets for this technology, of which Nintendo would be an obvious customer. That was a 20nm project. AMD has since stated that formerly 20nm projects have been transitioned to finFET (they had to take something like 33 million dollar write off for it too). Even though Skybridge, with it x86/ARM pin compatibility, has been cancelled, AMD have stated it was because it made more sense to cater to each specific customer's needs.
Another technology that is frequently discussed in relation to NX is HBM. Like finFET, this is a technology which is new and expensive, but it might be Nintendo's style to use it. Takeda has called small pools of efficient RAM a part of Nintendo's DNA. Yet, I would hope that they have heard the developer protests of Xbone's 32 MB being too small for 1080p games (knowing Nintendo, this might be a leap on my part). SRAM in itself is not very efficient compared to Nintendo's beloved eDRAM, so perhaps it is time for a change. Nintendo have shown they are not adverse to MCMs, and if they used HBM ( 1 or 2), they would have several different suppliers capable of integrating the technology.
Obviously, this technology comes at a cost, but it's possible they could realize savings elsewhere. With even one stack of HBM, they could skimp on main RAM, as they are prone to do. So how about this setup:
- TSMC 16nm/GF 14nm (I anticipate AMD will want to source from both eventually)
- 8 Core A57 ~2 Ghz (A57 because I'm guessing it started as semi custom Skybridge)
- 1 TFLOP GCN2 GPU (8 CUs @ 1 Ghz)
- 2-4 GB of HBM2 @ 256 GB/s (A single 2 or 4-high stack. New next year but prices will decrease over time. Analysis shows that yields are quite good)
- 4-6 GB DDR4 (another technology which will come down in price)
Looking around as to what is available today, Nintendo could use four 8Gb or 12 Gb DDR4 chips. That should eventually amount to savings over Xbone's 16 DDR3 chips and Sony's 8 GDDR5 chips. They'll never be able to go lower because of the necessary bus width per chip. If Nintendo use for DDR4 chips, even @ 3200 Mhz and a narrow 64-bit bus, that's a useable 25.6 GB/s bandwidth. With the HBM as a framebuffer, that's a similar configuration to many PC setups today which give the current gen consoles a run for their money.
That's basically where I'm at.
TL;DR Nintendo could use state-of-the-art technology in the NX console next year, but they could still end up with performance that will disappoint many.
