Well before they had the 3DS announced noone would have seriously predicted an autostereoscopic screen. Just because we on the outside cannot anticipate their actions just as we couldn't anticipate AMD going 4 Wide VLIW doesn't mean that they won't make any action in this direction. They've obviously been thinking about the Wiimote and interfaces for at least 7 years at this point so the chances are good that they will come up with something in that time. However given the DS's dual screen and stylus, the Wii's Wiimote and the 3DS' 3D it would be foolish to assume their next generation Wii is just a Wii+ at this point considering their past record.
Who considered that? I said the exact oposite:
"they need WiiMote 2.0 (and i don't mean motion controls wtih this i mean something "new" to differentiate themselfs from the competition)".
But as i said what will it be? 3D would be nothing new - everyone else already has it or will have it. An improvement in Motion controls would also not cut it, cause like 3D everyone else already have it. I also think 3D for the DS isn't in the same league as the Touch Screen of the DS or the Motion Controls of the wii was (doesn't mean the thing won't sell like hot cakes - in the end it's a DS
). There's also always the danger that if they launch first the competition can copy their "new" tech.
They're losing market share in this generation regardless. With a new system they could gain market share, they could lose market share but with the Wii they will only almost certainly lose market share. I don't believe that Nintendo would release a Wii with just more power, see above.
If it wasn't clear i'm almost certain they won't release a wii with just more power. But i don't really see what they could build in to make the same impact as the motion controls. You say they loose market share, but don't you think this is a unparalled situation in nintendo's history to make tons of money. Do you really think they will have the same success in the next generation? Do you think it's likely that in the next generation they will sell more consoles than there rivals combined? Do you think they will have games that sell over 20 million? I mean i can see them, depending on the market, launching the next console in 2012 - that's after all close to 2 years. But i can't see them announce the new console at E3 this year (that would cut into wii sales). Also i would make sure that before the next console comes out the Wii price is cut to 99$, i think at that price they could shift huge numbers.
Microsoft's average sale price as at the last NPD was $305 which isn't too far removed from the launch and is relatively comparable with Nintendo's price drops since launch. Sony on the other hand was forced to lower the price by a larger margin to stay in business which is something entirely different from running a profitable company. Sure the Wii would sell crazy at $149 but after the currency turned against them somewhat they'd lose a significant quantity of margins in order to sell to people who will buy less software and accessories at the same time losing money from all the people who would have paid $200 but instead have to pay $149. Nintendo's MO is to add value to their products and not cut the price, however they are fast running into saturation of their target markets and diminishing returns on the system selling potential of new software.
The Ms Sony prices were only posted to illustrate that Nintendo should make a profit at 150$. And you make it sound as if Nintendo never should make a price cut.
Nintendo is better served by saving their development resources for a next generation console because their software will be better able to sell new $249-$299 hardware and it will be far more productive for them in terms of overall profit than trying to steady the final few years of the Wii whilst facing increased competition and diminishing returns. With a new Wii they can sell new versions of SSBB, Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, Wii Sports etc and all this software will sell systems and the new customers they aquire will buy more software than legacy Wii console owners. Just saying they leave money on the table by releasing the NES 6 is entirely wrong because they also leave money on the table in not releasing NES 6. They released the 3DS before the NDS had done it's final dash so they could still release the NES 6 before the NES 5 is finished on the market and sell both at the same time which will give them the ability to target the widest portion of the market from core to extremely casual.
And do you think a new Mario Kart, Sports, etc... would sell 10+ Million on the new console and at what time span? 10-15 Million is maybe the number of consoles they will sell in the first year. It's seems you assume the next console and the software will sell the same numbers as the wii, as in my opinion it will be a much bigger uphill battle for them. I would take any bet that the next console won't have the same market share that the wii has.
