Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [pre E3 2019]

[HMBR]

The issue is that the vast majority of games will be designed to work on consoles. Since 2013 we have been stuck with an 8 core 1.6ghz jaguar as the defacto standard. Now in 2020 it appears an 8 core zen 2 will be the defacto. Yes an upgrade to be sure but on the pc side we are already moving away from 8 core chips

The issue with steam results is its all devices. I have a surface pro 6 that I sometimes run older games on and it would show up as a 4/8 I believe on steam hardware results. But it isn't what I really game on and I am sure its the same for a lot of people. Also a lot of the dual core system will age out now and be replaced with octa cores and higher . The pricing of higher cores continues to dwindle.

we are not moving away from 8 cores on the PC yet, Intel barely started to push those on the mainstream, AMD still mostly wants you to buy 4-6c bellow $300, PC is still mostly 4c-6c dominated.
and you have to consider that even by 2013 PC standards the PS4 CPU was really quite bad, while a 8c/16t Zen based thing sounds very good right now, and with the level of efficiency people get out of the consoles it's going to push a lot of CPU upgrades in the next couple of years!
the main thing is that we don't know the clocks and if it's all there (same l3 configuration for example!?)

I think it sets the bar pretty high on the CPU side this time, the opposite of the previous gen.

 

[MrFox]

It's interesting to go back to Cerny's presentation of the ps4 in 2013, how one of the most important aspect of it's software stack was about "immediacy". The thing we lost from past cart based consoles.

The way many single player ps4 games can be played 60 seconds after inserting the disc for the first time, it was unrelated to power or media speed, it was a clever storage API requiring some work from the devs.

Their psnow plan was about playing a game immediately without having to wait for a long download. (and demoing a game instantly, which better come next gen).

And on ps5 they continue in that direction. No loading screen, starting a game quickly, I'm thinking they went for a caching which operates in the same way as their 60 seconds to play a disc and install in background. It put what it needs in the flash area to start, and then copy the entire game to flash in the first few minutes of the game. Data sections of the game tagged for this purpose.

So as long as the flash is big enough for a full game, they can spend the money to make it as fast as possible. I wouldn't be surprised they prefered a super fast 128GB on the M/B instead of the alternative of a slower 1TB SSD main storage. The way he describes it, it's the extreme speed which enables immediate results. It might require some work from the devs though. The 60-seconds preinstall isn't done much by third parties so there's a worry here some games might not bother if it requires specific game design decisions.

But the guaranteed streaming speed is quite an enabler which allows games to be designed in a way that is not possible on earlier platforms or even PC without a massive amount of ram.

 

[Jay]

I can't seem to find that tweet in here about MS being happy and confident that they will be more powerful.
I don't believe based on the wired article that there is enough information for them to believe that. Far from it, think I've probably made that pretty clear in this thread. (so I don't actually believe tweet)

Only one way inmo though.

My highly fictional course of events :
Sony

• Ok we've just released the ps4 pro, let's get started on next gen, going big, keep aggressive as we have been all generation.
• Market may except slight rise in price, know MS is going for power, not going to have demonstrable deficit if they have any at all.
• Speak to AMD what do you have? We want to release in 2020 (maybe 2019 but that's just a side note)
• AMD - we've got navi and we can add all those customisations you wanted, be ready by 2019 so you'll have it by 2020 easily. Also have Ravi but that's 2021.

We'll obviously go hard with navi!

MS

• Xbox 1X has released year after ps4 pro, but it's doing well for us. We need to keep power narrative.
• If we go 2 models will allow us to push top end. So....
• Sit down with AMD, going to be releasing 2020, what do you have
• (remember year later than Sony) AMD - we have navi, bit behind schedule but gonna be good. MS what else? Ravi post navi but on schedule but going to release in 2021.

MS where gonna roll the dice, gamble the way Sony did with gddr5. Let's go Ravi.

Ravi pros and cons
Cons:

• First revision so could have unforseen issues
• Non gcn so customizations may be harder and more costly
• Navi gcn based so better prediction of performance profile
• Could be delayed

Pros:

• Future uarch & uarch going forward
• Expected better performance profile
• Newer feature set

Fiction conclusion.
Only way that it being confirmed its navi based that ms could have any views on being more powerful as they would know pretty much what the max raw TFlops performance can be.

Does it mean anaconda is guaranteed to be more powerful in real world, no, but on paper possibly.

 

[Globalisateur]

It's interesting to go back to Cerny's presentation of the ps4 in 2013, how one of the most important aspect of it's software stack was about "immediacy". The thing we lost from past cart based consoles.

The way many single player ps4 games can be played 60 seconds after inserting the disc for the first time, it was unrelated to power or media speed, it was a clever storage API requiring some work from the devs.

Their psnow plan was about playing a game immediately without having to wait for a long download. (and demoing a game instantly, which better come next gen).

And on ps5 they continue in that direction. No loading screen, starting a game quickly, I'm thinking they went for a caching which operates in the same way as their 60 seconds to play a disc and install in background. It put what it needs in the flash area to start, and then copy the entire game to flash in the first few minutes of the game. Data sections of the game tagged for this purpose.

So as long as the flash is big enough for a full game, they can spend the money to make it as fast as possible. I wouldn't be surprised they prefered a super fast 128GB on the M/B instead of the alternative of a slower 1TB SSD main storage. The way he describes it, it's the extreme speed which enables immediate results. It might require some work from the devs though. The 60-seconds preinstall isn't done much by third parties so there's a worry here some games might not bother if it requires specific game design decisions.

But the guaranteed streaming speed is quite an enabler which allows games to be designed in a way that is not possible on earlier platforms or even PC without a massive amount of ram.

Based on the Spider-man demo, we can assume by default all PS4 games on PS5 will automatically benefit from the fast cache and also we can assume there will be a boost mode.

So that means Bloodborne with perfect frame-pacing and locked frame-rate + instant loadings on PS5 !

 

[iroboto]

I can't seem to find that tweet in here about MS being happy and confident that they will be more powerful.

I don’t recall ever reading such a tweet either.

I doubt they would have posted it from an official account. They no real numbers have been posted. Just architectures and a core count on cpu.

There are many more ways your fictional story can happen lol. That’s just 1 way.

AMD’s semi custom team is similar to partner solutions for my company. They are a completely separated branch from the rest of the company. Other teams don’t have access to their floors etc. Within semi custom they don’t have access to each other. Once you’re assigned you can’t swap teams for the exact reason that we have here. AMD members working with Sony cannot be the same AMD members working with MS.

MS has not confirmed anything yet, so it’s still a shot in the dark what it is. Though Sony has pretty much imo confirmed what it should be architecturally at least. But there are still off chances we are wrong.

All Sony has done is kicked off events to capture a lot of pent up emotions that MS would have gotten instead at E3. But Sony or MS haven’t released any real spec info yet.

 

[Jay]

I don’t recall ever reading such a tweet either.

I doubt they would have posted it from an official account. They no real numbers have been posted. Just architectures and a core count on cpu.

There are many more ways your fictional story can happen lol. That’s just 1 way.

It was from a supposed insider who heard it, not MS.

I just didn't want to throw out there that Scarlett could be based on post navi uarch without any form of context.
It's possible when you look at the old time lines that AMD originally had.
Sony could've made an earlier start and was deep into navi before the delays became apparent, although may not have effected them as far as they was concerned.

AMD’s semi custom team is similar to partner solutions for my company. They are a completely separated branch from the rest of the company. Other teams don’t have access to their floors etc. Within semi custom they don’t have access to each other. Once you’re assigned you can’t swap teams for the exact reason that we have here. AMD members working with Sony cannot be the same AMD members working with MS.

This is definitely the case, but both teams would have access to AMD's product timelines etc

 

[BRiT]

Based on the Spider-man demo, we can assume by default all PS4 games on PS5 will automatically benefit from the fast cache and also we can assume there will be a boost mode.

Does it? Was it clarified the Spider-Man game on Ps5 was not patched and not specially compiled for PS5?

 

[PSman1700]

. The only thing I was hoping for is a higher cpu core count and 32 gigs of ram.

32GB is not a realistic target, that's expecting way too much imo.

, CPU performance shouldn't be too much of an issue this time around.

Don't think so either. I do get why people are dissapointed though, for the average Joe, they see PS4 had 8 cores in 2013, and PS5 8 cores again in 2020/2021. Not everyone are tech nerds. People like high numbers too.

Um, not at the rate you think. The majority of PC gamers are still using 4c/8t CPUs.

That might change though, if AMD is offering relatively cheap and fast/many core Zen 2 and Zen 3 products, people might adopt much faster when new games require atleast 8 cores. 12 and 16 core won't be that strange after 2021 i think. Lower prices and 8 cores as minimum, and the fact consoles are going with 8 cores and pc gaming market will follow suit.
Also, Steam might not be the best for statistics, i for one have both my laptop and main pc in those statistics.

we are not moving away from 8 cores on the PC yet, Intel barely started to push those on the mainstream, AMD still mostly wants you to buy 4-6c bellow $300, PC is still mostly 4c-6c dominated.
and you have to consider that even by 2013 PC standards the PS4 CPU was really quite bad, while a 8c/16t Zen based thing sounds very good right now, and with the level of efficiency people get out of the consoles it's going to push a lot of CPU upgrades in the next couple of years!
the main thing is that we don't know the clocks and if it's all there (same l3 configuration for example!?)

I think it sets the bar pretty high on the CPU side this time, the opposite of the previous gen.

Intel hasn't been pushing much lately due to no competition. AMD offers high performance, high core count processors at a much better price. Zen 2 and in special Zen 3 offer even better price/performance ratio.
Agree, its easy to be impressed by anything really coming from the Jaguar.
I'm going wait and see what Zen2 and Navi has to offer this summer. I'm all Intel and Nvidia right now, that will change, a 16c/32t zen2 or zen3 with a high-end Navi or Arcturus setup i feel will be a very great performer. I'm very happy to see AMD catching up again after all those years. Arrogant Intel and Nvidia might have to go down with their pricing.

 

[iroboto]

It was from a supposed insider who heard it, not MS.

I just didn't want to throw out there that Scarlett could be based on post navi uarch without any form of context.

Oh that one.
Yea don't put too much stock into that. Even then, the only way a person could validate that exact statement is a developer who has access to both kits and can evaluate the difference. A leaker/tech journalist is unlikely to be able to evaluate the difference correctly.

It doesn't need to be post navi. Which could mean something older (vega etc), or something completely out of left field that MS wants for themselves to be used in more product verticals than just their xbox.

 

[Jay]

Oh that one.
Yea don't put too much stock into that. Even then, the only way a person could validate that exact statement is a developer who has access to both kits and can evaluate the difference. A leaker/tech journalist is unlikely to be able to evaluate the difference correctly.

Hopefully I made it clear I didn't actually believe the tweet.
But it did make me think under what conditions that it could be their reaction.
Considering how little we know about ps5 and Scarlett, the assumption has been that they both would be navi. Or at least general consensus.

 

[iroboto]

Hopefully I made it clear I didn't actually believe the tweet.
But it did make me think under what conditions that it could be their reaction.
Considering how little we know about ps5 and Scarlett, the assumption has been that they both would be navi. Or at least general consensus.

i see this as grabbing the pent up hype; whomever was going to go first would have gotten it. They knew MS was going to announce at E3 their next generation device.

This was a fairly easy way to grab that pent up hype prior to E3 for themselves instead.

I'm no longer sure if I would call it a reaction, the actual article is very light on details, confirming most of what we assumed, and confirmation of the next PS5 and BC. Which were all great moves, but still, very light on details.

 

[Jay]

i see this as grabbing the pent up hype; whomever went first was going to get it. They knew MS was going to announce at E3 their next generation device.

This was a fairly easy way to grab that pent up hype prior to E3 for themselves instead.

I'm no longer sure if I would call it a reaction, the actual article is very light on details, confirming most of what we know, and confirmation of the next PS5 and BC. Which were all great moves, but still, very light on details.

I don't think there was any reaction that we know about and none that, that tweet confirmed.

It made me think of a hypothetical situation where they could actually believe they was more powerful solely based on hearing that ps5 was navi based.
That was the whole point, that's all we know about ps5 power wise and even then don't know the TFlops it's running etc
If it makes it more clear forget the tweet and if ms was happy or not. It was simply about how it's possible Scarlett could be post navi based.
Everything else was just what made me initially think about it, the framing.

As for the wired article I've made it clear pretty often my views on what it is and isn't. Which I agree with you on

 

[iroboto]

I don't think there was any reaction that we know about and none that, that tweet confirmed.

It made me think of a hypothetical situation where they could actually believe they was more powerful solely based on hearing that ps5 was navi based.
That was the whole point, that's all we know about ps5 power wise and even then don't know the TFlops it's running etc
If it makes it more clear forget the tweet and if ms was happy or not. It was simply about how it's possible Scarlett could be post navi based.
Everything else was just what made me initially think about it, the framing.

As for the wired article I've made it clear pretty often my views on what it is and isn't. Which I agree with you on

Yea, it's cool to discuss, but we're talking about it more in the baseless rumour section and not here since it's fairly baseless response to the wired article (the tweet).

I think Sony announcing that it's navi makes it much more likely that Scarlett is navi; and I don't think we'd be overstepping in making that assumption as we're following standard bayes. But it doesn't make it 100%. So I guess it's going to be a bit of a wait until June 9.

 

[Globalisateur]

Does it? Was it clarified the Spider-Man game on Ps5 was not patched and not specially compiled for PS5?

It's the best case scenario indeed. But I think it's going to be what we'll have. I am optimistic ! And I don't see Cerny cheating by using a patched game which would also defeat the purpose of his demonstration and make it invalid. He has never done anything remotely similar in the past.

If they use like 256 GB of fast cache, 99% (if not 100%, someone needs to check that) of PS4 games data would fit in that cache. Why would you need to recompile the game in that case ? I think super fast loading is going to be a great feature of PS5, it could to be the playgo of the PS5 (and maybe XB2 but we'll have to wait E3 for that I guess).

By the way Microsoft did something similar with their XB360. Games that were designed to run solely from the DVD, without HDD install, could later be installed on the HDD and played from there even if the games were designed to run from the DVD.

 

[MistaPi]

Is foveated rendering something that can be used on a TV or is it a VR thing only? Not by eye tracking but by detecting and reducing resolution in like darker areas of a scene? Or is variable rate shading a better/only option here? I guess we don't know if Navi will support VRR,

 

[Scott_Arm]

The thing with a cache is you have to fill it, so there will be cases where you're only as fast as your slowest disc. That doesn't sound like what they're advertising.

 

[bgroovy]

The thing with a cache is you have to fill it, so there will be cases where you're only as fast as your slowest disc. That doesn't sound like what they're advertising.

It's obviously not, which is why it's so strange so many are convincing themselves that's what it is.

 

[BRiT]

They're not advertising anything yet.

They also only timed the fast-travel in the game. They didn't time new game boot-up.

On the TV, Spidey stands in a small plaza. Cerny presses a button on the controller, initiating a fast-travel interstitial screen. When Spidey reappears in a totally different spot in Manhattan, 15 seconds have elapsed. Then Cerny does the same thing on a next-gen devkit connected to a different TV.

I understand people want to believe, but why read more into it than what was said or shown?

 

[eastmen]

So are you hoping for a dedicated CPU and GPU, rather than an APU? If so, what reasonable power/thermal constraints are you looking at with this type of design? What clocks/frequencies are you expecting from each? Pricing?

I'd expect you'd can put a 45w 8 core zen chip in the 3ghz range along with a 150w gpu .

You all know i'm for ditching the optical drive so I would go with a design like the one s. But dual fans an heatsinks. A smaller one over the cpu and a larger one over the gpu.

Intel NUCs seem to be able to cool 230w quite well and its far smaller than any of the current consoles https://www.anandtech.com/show/1257...yon-nuc8i7hvk-review-kaby-lakeg-benchmarked/8

Also note the the Zotac e-series sff has a 175TDP gpu and 65w desktop chip https://www.anandtech.com/show/12573/zotac-zbox-magnus-ek71080-compact-gaming-pc-review/8

As for cost , i'm guessing $400-$500 .

 

[bgroovy]

They're not advertising anything yet.

The primary point in his presentation was about the transformative nature of having an SSD. To assume that means a half step caching solution is at odds with the point he is making.