Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [pre E3 2019]

[anexanhume]

Looking at it, the PS5 @ 399 dollars is right in the middle, most ppl that buy these things arent into specs. On resetera/internet forums people want badly ray tracing hardware though.



PS3 was both (very) expensive and underperformed, released over a year later too. If those rumors are true, PS5 was targeted late 2019, whilst next xbox late 2020, almost two years from now. Those specs are abit dated by then thinkng of the timeframe.



Agree, assumed it was insider info this time around?

This case has a verified insider verifying some of the hardware info independently. The problem is that the hardware rumors are a regurgitation of speculation and existing rumors already out there. So it could be an utter garbage fake that gets some right incidentally, and people falsely put hope into it because of that.

 

[chris1515]

Here you would have more than a -1 sales for PS5 if you have the same graphics at 4K on a XBOX than at whatever 1440p> resolution with PS5. And people who doesnt care about resolutions will get the 249 dollars full hd alternative.
MS is is being clever with the sandwich strategy, only way I can see Sony fight it is imitating it.

No Sony can have the right price at 399 dollars/euros. Gamecube or Xbox One with discount were often cheaper than PS2 or PS4 respectively and they did sell less than PS4. Other things some people will buy the box where they can play God of War 2, TLOU part 3, Horizon Zero Dazn 2 or Spiderman 2...

And 499 dollars/euros will be too much for some people...

 

[Metal_Spirit]

New leak.

https://imgur.com/a/i3TnTKk

Smells like that pungent BS you have smelled from the farm if you ask me.
But if a 8tf PS5 is true then it's DOA especially against a 12tf Anaconda.

There is no way PS5 is 8 Tflops.

Cerny explained that if you want true 4k at ps4 quality (that's dedicating the same flops per pixel that you have on PS4), you need 8 Tflops.
PS4 Pro has 4.2, a bit above half 8 Tflops, and tries to use half 4K resolution to recreate full 4K, but even so it cannot reach 4K, even with image reconstruction.

If you want to use something like DirectML or DLSS for image reconstruction at 4K, and at the same time have a quality jump that justifies beeing called next generation, 8 Tflops are not enough, you need at least 12 Tflops.
Microsoft can have more money, but this doesn´t mean Sony will fuck up the PS5. Sony cannot afford to do that, it depends on the console to survive. Besides console development only costs so much, and both companies have more than enough money to develop a good console.

Microsoft can eventually afford to loose more money in console sales, so a Microsoft console can eventually be better than a Sony console, at the same price, but one again, this doesn´t mean Sony will fuck up.

Between the two choices:

Lower specs PS5 at lower price vs Better specs Xbox at the same price
or
Good Specs PS5 at a higher price vs Same Specs Xbox at a lower price

The second choice is better!

Sony has a name, has the fans, has great support. Microsoft has to recover it´s image from the failures of this generation. So Sony will sell with higher price!
But if the choice is way lower specs... Sony will die! It´s console has to last 6 years, and 8 Tflops will not convince anyone!

Unless someone screwed up, I just don´t believe in such specs. Those number will shock people. Even if Sony has something up it´s sleeve, 8 Tflops is just very similar to Xbox One X, and it will not sell!

 

[mpg1]

it seems some of the information are true...

Well I was responding to ultragpu's post not yours....he just posted the old reddit info without any mention of the resetera info

 

[Kaotik]

Someone linked this on resetera, for the people getting exited about RT, hope its false.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/amd-wont-offer-ray-tracing/

That was one of the many that just reported based on bad google translation.
Actual japanese guy translating the same text said that AMD doesn't think DXR will be a big thing before it's available from top to bottom [so there's no actual hurry to support it right now [which was last november]], not that AMD wouldn't support it before they can offer it from top to bottom.
AMD has stated on several occasions that they're working on raytracing on both hardware and software fronts.

 

[MrFox]

I hope AMD finds a way to do RT and AI workloads efficiently from a unified architecture instead of adding specific circuitry.

 

[vipa899]

No Sony can have the right price at 399 dollars/euros. Gamecube or Xbox One with discount were often cheaper than PS2 or PS4 respectively and they did sell less than PS4. Other things some people will buy the box where they can play God of War 2, TLOU part 3, Horizon Zero Dazn 2 or Spiderman 2...

And 499 dollars/euros will be too much for some people...

Thinking the same, 399 dollars seems a nice price/performance ratio. I dont know about launching two consoles at the same time either, games will be designed for the lower-end model just like with current gen. I dont think Sony would do a bad decision by launching mid-end hardware at a mid-end price. Sony exclusives secure a large market too yes.
MS has to (and will) strengthen their AAA games support.

Can only imagine how Forza will look on a 2080/next xbox, hope the rumors are true. Specs seem realistic atleast.

 

[vipa899]

I hope AMD finds a way to do RT

Tech finds a way....

 

[AlNom]

I hope AMD finds a way to do RT and AI workloads efficiently from a unified architecture instead of adding specific circuitry.

We've sort of discussed this in the other thread, but it comes down to what's needed for a client/end-user, so RT is seemingly in, but not the AI part i.e. training/tensor, and I thought the consensus we reached was that the latter was more or less ideally done in the cloud i.e. not necessary for gaming hardware to do, and maybe coincidentally, BF5 is our writing-on-the-wall test case for implementing RT without using tensor anyway. *ahem*

It'll be curious to see, but I imagine it would be an RT unit (whatever that may be ????) per CU or a group of CUs like how nV has an RT per SM - so maybe it ends up as one RT block per group of CUs, which in Polaris is up to 3 CUs with shared L1 as opposed to the max of 4 in the rest of GCN (including Fiji/Vega I assume).

Wonder if they'd be inclined to go down to 2 CUs per L1 grouping (or @3dilettante can bust my hypotheticals :V )

----

"confirmed" SSD storage ought to be nice.

 

[iroboto]

Tech finds a way....

AMD has already confirmed they are working on it.

 

[iroboto]

MS has to (and will) strengthen their AAA games support.

And on this note; they're working on it as we can see. But their output hasn't been dismal. They do have power to wield just needs to be done right.


#1

1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Unit Sales
1/ Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 3.6 millions, December 2018 (30 days / 5 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo 3 : 3.3 millions, September 2007 (12 days / 2 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo Reach : 3.3 millions, September 2010 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
4/ Halo 2 : 3.27 millions, November 2004 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
5/ Halo 4 : 3.2 millions, November 2012 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
5/ Pokemon Sun+Moon : ~3.2 millions (estimate), November 2016 (9 days / 2 weeks tracking)
7/ Super Smash Bros Brawl : 2.7 millions, March 2008 (27 days / 4 weeks tracking)
8/ Spiderman : 2.6+ millions*, September 2018 (23 days / 4 weeks tracking)
9/ Pokemon Black & White : 2.5 millions, March 2011
10/ GTA San Andreas : 2.06 millions, October 2004
11/ God of War : 1.9 millions**, April 2018 (16 days / 3 weeks tracking)

 

[McHuj]

There is no way PS5 is 8 Tflops.

Unless it's 8 TFlops plus additional hardware on the side like a ray-tracing engine.

 

[AlNom]

There is no way PS5 is 8 Tflops.

I wouldn't get too bogged down about the supposed specs just yet - they're not all confirmed. Even if it is on paper around there, AMD has some catching up to do on architectural efficiencies, and we're over a year away.

 

[McHuj]

The original rumor is 16GB GDDR6 + 1T SSD for Xbox. That would seem low, but I think I'm coming around to the idea.

It has been mentioned on this forum before of a smaller ram pool backed by a fast SSD maybe a better solution than lots of RAM with a slow HDD. I think the former maybe the way to go and SSD's may have the most long term cost reduction available. And AMD already has worked on something similar in the form of the Radeon Pro SSG. It was Vega tied to an SSD. I could see Microsoft leveraging a lot of engineering work from that project.

If true, it will be interesting what the RT capability is. Even if it's minimal, long term it will be great is DXR is adopted and used in the PC space.

 

[Ike Turner]

AMD has already confirmed they are working on it.

Doesn't necessary mean that it's going to be similar to Nvidia's approach (dedicated HW blocks..)..

 

[iroboto]

Doesn't necessary mean that it's going to be similar to Nvidia's approach (dedicated HW blocks..)..

sure doesn't. I don't expect it to be either. Has to be more than 1 way to do RT acceleration.

 

[Ike Turner]

sure doesn't. I don't expect it to be either. Has to be more than 1 way to do RT acceleration.

Yes, especially for a console SoC. It's too much die space "waste" given that 90% of the content created for the next generation of consoles isn't going to benefit from them anyway.
I'm still wishfully expecting driver support for DXR on curent AMD/Nvidia GPUs though. There are zero hardware limitations that prevent this. It's all about money and development resources for AMD (and marketing for Nvidia..they want to sell does RTX Skus..having even slow ass support on Pascal would look bad PR wise).
As of right now RTX (and to a lesser extend DXR) is literally a no show. It's been nearly 5 months since the GPUs are available, only one game support DXR (BFV) and one DCC software (Substance Designer). In the case of Substance it's barely worth it because out of all the major software solutions used for baking maps, Designer was the only one still using the CPU only (xNormal uses CUDA, Marmoset uses DirectCompute) so the jump to "RTX only or you are stuck with CPU baking" sort of alienates the vast majority of their user base...that's why, less than 2 months after it inclusion, they are actively working on another Ray Tracing baking solution which would work on non Turing GPUs (they've also just been acquire today by Adobe..which actively support OpenCL for compute workloads in its CC Suite)...

GDC is going to be interesting..

 

[AlNom]

As of right now RTX (and to a lesser extend DXR) is literally a no show. It's been nearly 5 months since the GPUs are available, only one game support DXR (BFV) and one DCC software (Substance Designer).

To be fair, that's not exactly super terrible, is it? (considering the history of feature support on PC ). It's too early to be a DX10 or Tress FX/Gameworks. *cough* (or uh... Vulkan/Mantle /runs)

 

[Ike Turner]

To be fair, that's not exactly super terrible, is it? (considering the history of feature support on PC ). It's too early to be a DX10 or Tress FX/Gameworks. *cough* (or uh... Vulkan /runs)

Well, it wouldn't be terrible if the initial announcements (Siggraph & then Gamescom) weren't loaded with not so attainable promises in terms of software support and releases...or if the only DCC app to support it is trying to find another solution in such a short period of time after release.. But DXR/VulkanRT is here to stay that's for sure.

 

[AlNom]

Fair enough. I guess a lot will hinge upon AMD's (client's) plans/timing for discussing the future.