Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

Discussion in 'Console Technology' started by Tkumpathenurpahl, Jan 19, 2018.

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  1. anexanhume

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    I wouldn’t try and equate them, particularly since Titan is not a gaming card. Compare Vega to 1080 gaming performance and scale from there if you have to, I suppose. But comparisons across architectures, development environments and optimization levels will be hard to be precise. Me saying a 2020 console can equal that is educated guessing.
     
  2. function

    function None functional
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    That's on PC, under DX. With Vulcan or on a console utilising async compute heavily, I'm not sure things would be so heavily skewed towards Nvidia.

    And console specific optimisation may make a difference, even at the hardware level. MS made around 80 hardware optimisation to X1X based on their profiling. It has no problem outperforming a 580 or even a 1060 at only 180W power draw for the entire system at the wall.

    AMD suffer from a number of none hardware factors on PC, in addition to hardware factors (late, bugged, process etc).
     
  3. Megadrive1988

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    8TF GPUs for PS5/Scarlet isn't going to cut it IMO. 8TF is the estimate Cerny gave for doing PS4 games at native 4K,

    Next Gen consoles will need around 12TF to seem like a generational upgrade over base PS4.
     
  4. vipa899

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    Gaming card or not, it performs better then a 1080Ti in gaming. Guess the new Volta gpu's will be Titan V level, GTX1180 or something.

    Thats indeed very impressive, even if the X wouldnt outperform a 1060.
     
  5. Shifty Geezer

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    Yes indeed. Flops is a peak measure of maths. In an ideal environment, with code used to extract maximal performance from the GPU architecture, one Flop is one Flop. Where you have differences in performance is where the hardware isn't be maximised and flops are going unused, waiting for work to do or processing data that isn't ideally suited to the architecture. In an ideal console, you'd hope the GPU will be more ideally targeted resulting in higher utilisation and those Flops all being used. eg. You could have an architecture with twice as many flops achieve half the work of another in PC because the scheduling and overheads are all out of whack, whereas the same component in a console could run twice as fast because the workloads are tailored for it.
     
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  6. vipa899

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    Yeah in a ideal world a 970 in a console could perform as fast a as a 1080Ti.
     
  7. Wynix

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    My money is on $449 launch price, Q4/2020 and then price drop to $399 announced at E3/2021.
     
  8. dobwal

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    TMSC 7nm+ will increase transistor density by 20% and lower power consumption by 10% compared to its 1st gen 7nm process.
     
  9. mpg1

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    I'd take the year advantage honestly.
     
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  10. metacore

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    Unofrunately it looks like 12TFflops won't be enough for "generation jump" in graphics/shading at native 4k, more like twice of that even at 30hz. Some nice posts about the matter by Timothy Lottes.

    https://timothylottes.sourceforge.io/20160909.html
    https://timothylottes.sourceforge.io/20170516.html

    "...The difference between PS4 and Xbox360 is roughly a 3.4x bump in Kflop/pix..."


    Another thing is memory bandwidth glass celling which is probably 500-600GB/s for 2019/20 console using 256bit gddr6. This memory bandwidth reality also shoots down hopes for any much faster gpu because that would be paper flops without ample increase in bytes. Temporal reconstruction plz send help ;/
     
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  11. anexanhume

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    Do you think 384-bit GDDR6 is that out of the question? I’d say MS opened that door when they did it with XB1X.
     
  12. iroboto

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    https://mynameismjp.wordpress.com/2...-barriers-part-3-multiple-command-processors/
    Indeed.

    can't wait honestly ;)
     
    #1712 iroboto, Jun 20, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2018
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  13. Megadrive1988

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    Sounds similar to what DF recently posted in their article about the possibilities for more than one next gen Xbox.

    https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/...ory-will-there-be-more-than-one-next-gen-xbox


    I think both Scarlet and PS5 need to go with 384-bit GDDR6 (24GB) with 800+ GB/s bandwidth, if they're not going with any HBM2/HBM3.

    I agree MS opened that door with XB1X.
     
  14. Xbat

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    Will 7nm+ be ready by the end of 2020? I think 7nm is a lock for the first machines.

    Regarding native 4k there's no point, they definitely going to be using temporal reconstruction upscaling. Going native is a massive waste of resources that will have a much bigger impact being used elsewhere.
     
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  15. dobwal

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    7nm+ is slated to ramp up in 2019. Zen3 and AMD’s next gen gpu are slated for 7nm+ and 2020 releases.
     
  16. ultragpu

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    Yeah very good of Tim to put that in math terms, finally somebody spent some effort to bring us closer to the harsh reality. More reason we need to mainstream Resolution, Visual and Framerate mode come next gen. Personally 4k cbr 30 fps is the best solution for a tangible next gen experience with how things are looking right now. No point go native 4k or 60fps if your game doesn't deliver your vision because of those constraints.
     
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  17. anexanhume

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    The incompatibility of 7nm and 7nm+ really harms the console makers’ flexibility here. Presumably you’d want to make the processor on the best process available provided the cost and yield are amenable to a console budget and supply curve through the first year, but you most likely have to bifurcate your efforts if you want to be able to react to the foundry realities. Does this mean you make a Zen 2, Navi design on 7nm and 7nm+? Do you backport Zen 3 to 7nm in case 7nm+ falls through? I think it’s fairly clear Navi is the architecture of choice here, but the CPU doesn’t seem a certainty yet.
     
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  18. metacore

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    Out of question? no but this 384bit wide interface on 300-400mm2 chip will create problems for effective die shrinks and 12 ram chips will always be need. MS might done it because they knew the scorpio engine will not undergo die shrink. It remains to be seen if that door is really open. It depends how much they are willling to complicate life for themselves later on. They may as well use 384bit bus and hope there will be solution two years later to replace it for something cheaper.

    Then we have capacity. All those objects spinning with zen cores and drawn using primitive shaders will be memory hungry. Its forgone conclusion we wont see 8-16 bump in memory capacty but will 24 be enough? or use 32GB using 256bit clamshell with clear path to cost reduction. I don't envy architects trying to reach next gen dream with this 4k ball and chain, at cost and path to cost reductions in this day and age. Maybe console family at different pricepoint is the answer. BTW nice tech summary on resetera, Tim posts would help temper the expectations (i don't have account). ;)
     
    #1718 metacore, Jun 20, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2018
  19. DuckThor Evil

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    I think a box with 2x Xbox One X with stronger CPU would be a great thing to have, especially if that is the base line developers were targeting. That is a nice boost over the current base models and I'm sure devs would put that to good use. The power levels are already reaching the point where software, budget and developer skills are the main determining factor on visuals.
     
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  20. Xbat

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    I think 16GB of gddr6 is what we getting
     
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