Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[MrFox]

SerDes is pushing the 40Gbps data rates, and it can be mind-boggling how much compensation they have to apply to the channel to close the link. At that point you almost have to rope in RF designers to model your link rather than rely on signal integrity tools’ approximation of your stackup.

And even the super expensive serdes now have to use multiple bits per symbol to continue going higher, I think 56gbps is a 14Ghz carrier or something? There is a lot of money per port in networking.

I doubt we will ever reach that level of complexity with external memory, GDDR6 is probably the last one before HBM becomes the only possible solution to grow.

 

[anexanhume]

The more I think about it, the more unlikely HBM feels. The main concerns, aside from granularity, are apparently yields, cost, and testability. HBM has only shipped on products that have volumes in the low tens of thousands so far, right?

Is there anything to suggest it can scale to millions? Do they want to face product delays because of bad yields? How bad is the test visibility? Is it possible they’re throwing away good packages or known good APU die because they can’t test it all until a later level of integration?

I just see too many potential issues, and hobbling out of the gate could be devastating in this competitive marketplace.

A Pro/4K console would have been a perfect pipe cleaner for HBM, but we’ve already passed that window. Maybe in 2023/2024 when they’re considering new revisions.

 

[Grall]

In my mind you'd use something like 3d Xpoint (Intel's Optane) memory which is sort of a DRAM/NAND flash hybrid that could act as a high capacity cache for a traditional 2TB-4TB hard drive.

You mention cheap, then in next breath jumps to 3d xpoint? I'm sorry, but...lul? Xpoint is like 2x more expensive than flash, and way slower than DRAM (plus it wears with the amount you write to it too), so not really a realistic alternative for either of them.

The price for HBM Low-Cost had better be ~50% the price of regular HBM2 or less, otherwise the price for it won't compensate given the additional cost for a larger interposer.

Silicon bridges?

 

[Gubbi]

DRAM is around $10/GB, FLASH is $0.30/GB. It think this price disparity will be reflected in the memory/storage system. Having 12GB instead of 16GB DRAM allows 120GB FLASH for the same price.

I think we will see a base SKU without HDD and optical with 200-ish GB FLASH. People can plug their own external disks for extra storage. Launch SKU will be a premium model with HDD and optical, because.... early adopters.

Cheers

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If it were me, I'd go one further and just suck up the additional $30 for some SSD on top of the minimal HDD. Could probably recoup a fair bit of that selling over-priced officially branded larger SSD replacements, as an M2 type slot-in. I'd have it standard and not proprietary, because that'd piss people off, but you'd still get plenty of sales of PlayStation Upgrade components. The important thing is not to compromise the base experience for the whole of the rest of the platform's life, so get it right up front even if that costs a bit more.

Maybe, if they were daring, produce a storage-free SKU, no HDD or SSD, that they only sell on the Sony website so you have to know what you're doing and what you're buying and that you need to provide your own storage, to be able to get one. This would please their more savvy, hardcore fans who already have console HDDs.

Same for MS, obviously.

 

[anexanhume]

If it were me, I'd go one further and just suck up the additional $30 for some SSD on top of the minimal HDD. Could probably recoup a fair bit of that selling over-priced officially branded larger SSD replacements, as an M2 type slot-in. I'd have it standard and not proprietary, because that'd piss people off, but you'd still get plenty of sales of PlayStation Upgrade components. The important thing is not to compromise the base experience for the whole of the rest of the platform's life, so get it right up front even if that costs a bit more.

Maybe, if they were daring, produce a storage-free SKU, no HDD or SSD, that they only sell on the Sony website so you have to know what you're doing and what you're buying and that you need to provide your own storage, to be able to get one. This would please their more savvy, hardcore fans who already have console HDDs.

Same for MS, obviously.

Where would the OS sit in this theoretical configuration?

I agree though, I would hope both slots are upgradeable.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

In the storage-free SKU? Download it once you've added storage. There'd be enough in the BIOS to do that.

 

[mpg1]

You mention cheap, then in next breath jumps to 3d xpoint? I'm sorry, but...lul? Xpoint is like 2x more expensive than flash, and way slower than DRAM (plus it wears with the amount you write to it too), so not really a realistic alternative for either of them.

You conveniently left out the rest of what I said..or either didn't understand what I was proposing to use it for.

Everybody debating console tech seem to be stuck in a PC frame-of-mind. Which is pointless because when it comes to storage the business cases are not the same. On average PC's are more expensive, are price flexible and require less capacity. Consoles are the opposite. They are need to be cheap while requiring more storage than the average PC as it's primary purpose it storing AAA games.

Therefore to me you'd go with a good caching solution. And 3D-xpoint excels at that.

 

[Grall]

You conveniently left out the rest of what I said..or either didn't understand what I was proposing to use it for.

I read your post, however I don't understand why you think xpoint is a better solution than nand flash if cost is something that concerns you. "Responsiveness" is basically irrelevant, as consoles don't do massive amounts of I/O, particularly at low queue levels. Nand flash is way more cost-effective than xpoint, also you're limited to a single source for xpoint (IE, Intel), while nand storage solutions are available from multitudes of vendors at a number of price points and performance levels.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think an amount of flash storage you can rely on and design for will accelerate faster (or enable more) than the same flash used as an HDD cache and accessed as one would an HDD. I don't think any game ever has been designed around an SSD, so we've no real comparison.

 

[anexanhume]

In the storage-free SKU? Download it once you've added storage. There'd be enough in the BIOS to do that.

That would work. Just seems like a real narrow base that would do that to save ~$30 or so.

 

[mpg1]

I read your post, however I don't understand why you think xpoint is a better solution than nand flash if cost is something that concerns you. "Responsiveness" is basically irrelevant, as consoles don't do massive amounts of I/O, particularly at low queue levels. Nand flash is way more cost-effective than xpoint, also you're limited to a single source for xpoint (IE, Intel), while nand storage solutions are available from multitudes of vendors at a number of price points and performance levels.

NAND costs less but since we are talking about using it for caching purposes the absolute cost isn't huge deal anyway.

Think Micron is also involved.

I don't know of many effective examples of a NAND + HDD solution other than Apple's Fusion drives. And I don't consider that a potential available off-the-shelf technology. My guess is Apple did more than just pair a chunk of NAND with a HDD.

 

[Shortbread]

Someone clear something up for me. It seems from the Digital Foundry video that the "1TB SSD and 32GB GDDR6," is semi-confirmed or actually verified as the truth. You'll notice around the 0:17-0:19 mark the resetera.com insider specs comes into view, then Digital Foundry's "Fake" rubber stamping pops up, but then two caveats come about. One stating; "good try" then another stating "except for the ram and storage". Wait, what!? The "except for the ram and storage," seems to allude that the ram and storage rumored specs are exactly what's being stated. Why make a caveat about that, if the storage and memory type (and numbers) for them aren't true?

 

[anexanhume]

Someone clear something up for me. It seems from the Digital Foundry video that the "1TB SSD and 32GB GDDR6," is semi-confirmed or actually verified as the truth. You'll notice around the 0:17-0:19 mark the resetera.com insider specs comes into view, then Digital Foundry's "Fake" rubber stamping pops up, but then two caveats come about. One stating; "good try" then another stating "except for the ram and storage". Wait, what!? The "except for the ram and storage," seems to allude that the ram and storage rumored specs are exactly what's being stated. Why make a caveat about that, if the storage and memory type (and numbers) for them aren't true?

My guess is that it’s simply amounts, not type. I can’t imagine a 1TB SSD being cheaper than $100 by itself even in mass quantities in 2020. Would obviate need for two storage mediums though, I suppose. Richard did allude to having some info he’s holding back, so who knows.

 

[Shortbread]

My guess is that it’s simply amounts, not type. I can’t imagine a 1TB SSD being cheaper than $100 by itself even in mass quantities in 2020. Would obviate need for two storage mediums though, I suppose. Richard did allude to having some info he’s holding back, so who knows.

Hum, I don't know. I would have left everything under the "fake" rubber stamping umbrella, even if the numbers were right. It doesn't make any sense to verify the storage and memory in a "partial fashion," of being half-true. Anyhow, I just thought it was interesting how Digital Foundry tried to slide the caveats through gracefully. Richard knows something...

 

[bitsandbytes]

Hum, I don't know. I would have left everything under the "fake" rubber stamping umbrella, even if the numbers were right. It doesn't make any sense to verify the storage and memory in a "partial fashion," of being half-true. Anyhow, I just thought it was interesting how Digital Foundry tried to slide the caveats through gracefully. Richard knows something...

He as much as says he knows something in the video. He says he'll share when the time is right (NDA IMO).

Also I Interpret the FAKE asterisks slightly differently......It says:

Fake!

*Not a bad try
**Except RAM and Storage

I take this to mean the specs are realistic except RAM and Storage.

?

 

[Shortbread]

He as much as says he knows something in the video. He says he'll share when the time is right (NDA IMO).

Also I Interpret the FAKE asterisks slightly differently......It says:

Fake!

*Not a bad try
**Except RAM and Storage

I take this to mean the specs are realistic except RAM and Storage.

?

This is were there is too much ambiguity... or interpretation (understanding) of what's being stated.

If I post something like rumored specs...
then someone rubber stamps them as "fake"....
States, "good try" though...
then states, "except storage and ram"...

In my view, they're stating everything else was fake, a good try though, however your storage and ram configuration is partially true (or completely).

It's all fun though...

 

[bitsandbytes]

It might be a British thing, Shortbread!? It makes sense to me at least.

While I very much doubt 32GB who knows what sort of amazing deal Samsung (sure fire favorite RAM vendor for me) would be willing to do for Sony? Maybe another 8GB moment can happen again?

The SSD I can't see happening at all and hence why I interpret it like I do.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That would work. Just seems like a real narrow base that would do that to save ~$30 or so.

If you leave out HDD and SSD, you'd save at least $60.

 

[mpg1]

This is were there is too much ambiguity... or interpretation (understanding) of what's being stated.

If I post something like rumored specs...
then someone rubber stamps them as "fake"....
States, "good try" though...
then states, "except storage and ram"...

In my view, they're stating everything else was fake, a good try though, however your storage and ram configuration is partially true (or completely).

It's all fun though...

Not to keep litigating it but. It's says "FAKE!" with "*But not a bad try" meaning that's pretty good/close guess. Then "**Except for the RAM and Storage" meaning except for this. ie Pretty good guess except for the RAM and storage.

It's pretty clear cut imo assuming you're a native English speaker.