Since this is the speculation thread and I have yet to post a prediction.....Speculation says that rumors (yes, there is a joke there)may become more solid in the near future so I wanted to take my shot now and have a little fun with it. I did try, mostly, to stay within the confines of real possibility. I may have over-stepped a bit. Once more unto the breach, Dear friends! Or at least, once again back to the well? I'm going with MS and Sony playing to their strengths. Sony clones the PS4 and MS goes with a high/low approach that leverages their network strengths and looks to the XOX and 360 for inspiration. I'll put them in price order.
Note: Originally I did research 7nm and 7+nm, die space, transistor density, etc, but eventually dumped the frequency and die space numbers I came up with as ultimately unreliable and not particularly relevant. The higher frequency vs more cores debate, how much difference would the decision ultimately make? EULA - As always, worth every penny you paid to read it. No refunds on time lost.
$250 - Xbox Net
The price is more important than the hardware here. How much do you want to undercut the PS5? Frankly I don't think there is enough information to make a decent hardware guess. Beyond the statements that there will be some level of local hardware work such that a simple Chromecast style device with a controller packaged in will not be enough. For now.
I do believe MS will want to be able to appeal on a reduced initial outlay. There will be a subscription requirement. Much like the dreaded "cell phone" contract. Something introductory like getting 3 months free for your first 12-month contract. The low end will include Xbox Game Pass and more expensive services include other publishers or perhaps even some ala carte' by publishers? That could make the publishers rather happy. I really expect all kinds of options for how you pay for your games on here. You just won't own any of them.
A test on the Xbox website to see if your ISP service can handle the connection requirements would go a long way to alleviating fears about your connection quality. Be even nicer if you could run it in the background and let if accumulate a few days worth of tests and tell you what kind of quality you can expect. For those who do not fear the "games as service" model where you own nothing and you incur on-going costs rather than larger initial outlays, this is your console. I think Sony will let others try this out and take the risks rather than jump in right away with a low end cloud based box.
1Q 2020
$400 Sony PS5
The early adopters are going to buy about as many as you can make anyway. Launch in the Spring and get your ducks in a row for a blowout 2020 Fall with 1st party titles having an extra year to look good and get out the door. Could make for some nice holiday bundles as well. It could have launched over the 2019 holiday, but why? Just because it can? PS4 gets one more holiday season in the sun. I said everyone is going back to the well and I meant it. Sony leverages their first-party lineup, overall popularity and goes with what brung em' in the last generation.
128GB/ 1.5TB SATA SSHD - user replaceable. Will continue to work, only slower of course, if the SSD degrades over time/ use. With RDR2 already hitting the 100GB mark, I felt the 128GB was a near minimum.
7nm APU - 6C/12T Zen 2 + 12TF Navi - The "secret sauce" is something minor. Nothing cataclysmic like AI upscaling, RT or Path Tracing.
8GB DDR4 for OS/ App use - This is too handy a trick and I expect MS to use it as well.
16GB GDDR6 256-bit
4K BR / Full BC at launch / FreeSync
Seems boring? Nothing sexy here? It is straight-forward and an update on the idea of the PS4/Pro. Sony sells on their software library, price and enough power to get the job done.
Fall 2020
$500 Xbox 2 RT (or whatever made up word the marketing department comes up with)
Back to the well again. I think MS has realized that, for the time being, they are just not going to be able to go head to head with Sony in 1st party titles. The 360 era was their heyday. Maybe you get lucky again but why count on it? Scorpio got them some respect back after the Xbox One stuttered. Take some lessons from what worked and run with it. The Xbox Net gives you a price competitive option. Now they go after the high ground. This may backslide into early 2021, but only on fab problems I would expect.
If you are going to take the high ground, perhaps something a little more than just raw power would be useful. I toyed with both RT and AI up-scaling (DLSS kind of tech). MS has no small amount of experience with AI. AMD and MS worked on the RT together already (along with others of course). Since "up-scaling" can be a dirty word, and I fully expect to hear plenty of "Native 4K!" marketing early, I went with RT.
Marketing matters here. There is already developer support for Nvidia's RT tech so I see no reason why millions of potential console customers wouldn't be enough for developers to support it. Especially if you are selling "RT enhanced" as part of your marketing. Engine support shouldn't be long in coming. I can already see the tag lines - Xbox 2 RT - the best place to play "insert fps du jour here".
256GB NVMe SSD - M.2 user replaceable. If this fails/ degrades past a certain point, it must be replaced. I expect heavy users would view this similar to replacing your disc drive. They always fail at some point. This being a requirement will open up some serious possibilities.
2TB SATA 7200rpm Mechanical - user replaceable
8GB DDR 4 for OS/ App use
16GB GDDR6 256-bit
7nm+ (Partial EUV) APU - 8C/16T Zen 3 + 16TF Post-Navi + 4GB HBM3 - RT enabled (How much die space dedicated to what kind of hardware specifically? I have no friggin' idea. This is just the direction I would expect MS to go. Maybe it is dedicated silicon. Maybe it is a modification to the existing GPU that gives it more punch for RT work.)
4K BR / Full BC at launch / FreeSync
An unanswered question. When does MS launch the Xbox Net? I did not put a launch date because I was torn. I expect this could be ready by the time the PS5 launches. Do you launch along side or wait and do a dual launch with the 2 RT? E3 2019 should be very interesting. My gut says, if you can, launch it alongside the PS5. You would have a lower priced competitor from the start and time to work out your kinks before possible major sales in the 2020 holiday season. Then MS brings the marketing for the next year getting people to wait on their PS5 purchase because yours will be higher quality on all those 3rd party titles come the Fall.
With chip design costs skyrocketing and major players stating this could be the last console generation with a move to cloud computing staring it in the face, who says their will even be shrinks? 5nm may not be that far away but for a $500m+ design cost, how many would you have to sell at a reduced price to be worth it? And when? We could be stuck with these consoles until either the major players give up on the "thin-client" idea as unworkable for the foreseeable future and release new hardware or the "cloud" remains just out of reach, but close enough they all keep trying for an extended time period. Some types of games will obviously translate better than others here. I feel I did go a bit overboard on the specs. For the Xbox almost certainly. But with the future shrinks uncertain it felt better to launch a more powerful device now since you are already going after a premium market with the $500 price point.