Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]
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They have more than 1 variant going at any time. They provide developers specs of what they are aiming for. Perhaps even just a GPU to go into a PC to build against and work your SDK against. As it gets closer to launch < 1 year, real dev kits will go out of the final hardware to test their code against.
So I would say, the design is locked down probably just under a year in advance.
But as I say that, major architectural components are likely locked down much earlier.
The months leading up to the building that first dev kit is probably some form of hardware optimization. Examining yields and such. making sure that they can sell this design in the cost range they want to.
And then they have a <1 year to improve their sdk tools and drivers for better performance before launch.
So I would say, the design is locked down probably just under a year in advance.
But as I say that, major architectural components are likely locked down much earlier.
The months leading up to the building that first dev kit is probably some form of hardware optimization. Examining yields and such. making sure that they can sell this design in the cost range they want to.
And then they have a <1 year to improve their sdk tools and drivers for better performance before launch.
2 questions (I am over my quota so I will just beg indulgence.)
What kind of time frame was there previously on reliable leaks of hardware specs prior to launch and prior to announcement? If we are looking at a late 2019 launch with an E3 2019 reveal (barring special announcement shows) then shouldn't we have gotten some decent leaks by now? Subject to last second changes like the RAM in the current gen.
Didn't the 360 use a new combined shader that had never been in the wild before? Something that wasn't available on PC's at that point? My memory is failing. The terminology escapes me for the moment.
Almost certainly. You don't knock up a brand new architecture including the first implementation of unified shaders in a couple of months.
That points to some of the perils. Possibly Xenos was quite a period behind schedule? I'm sure it's covered in Dean Takahasi's book. Anyone read it?
It's variable. After the absolutely everything of this gen, things seem to have locked down. We learnt the Nintendo NX was a console/handheld hybrid one yaer before its official announcement, but it's Tegra tech was not leaked at all.
Yes. XB360 had the first version of unified shaders.
Megadrive1988
Veteran
Yes. Check out this timeline.
April 2004 - Xenon hardware diagram/specs leaked. https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/...xenon-system-diagram-leaked-april-2004.55624/
November 2005 - Xbox 360 released. The ATI Xenos/C1 GPU has 48 shader cores / 240 ALUs, unified shader architecture.
March 2007 - Radeon HD 2900XT (ATI R600 GPU) released. It's ATI's first card/gpu with unified shader architecture for the PC.
However, I think Nvidia's G80 / GeForce 8800, in Fall 2006, was the first PC GPU released that had unified shaders. ATI was late bringing its R600 / Radeon HD2900XT to market.
At the time Xbox 360 released in 2005, Nvidia's GPUs lacked unified shaders with the NV47 aka G70 (GeForce 7800). These had 24 pixel shaders and 8 vertex shaders. Not unified.
Which carried over into PS3 GPU (RSX) released November 2006.
How does that relate to the present time and the coming nextgen consoles? Maybe it doesn't, but knowing what ATI did for Microsoft for Xbox 360 (development of the GPU was probably the 2002- 2003 time frame given that we found out the specs Spring 2004)
I do not think it's impossible that Xbox Scarlett could use AMD's Nextgen Arcturus GPU architecture, or elements of it.
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So they just announced there will be no PSX this year. ResetEra is in full on prohecy mode. Many believe Sony will not announce any new exclusive game for PS4 and everyone has their take on timing of PS5.
BTW, two [rare] respectable Era insiders [Matt and Benji] have both said that PS5 was initially planned for 2019 but that it will most likely get delayed not because of any technological reasons [HW is achiveable in 2019], but because of software/business timings.
Many believe Sony will not announce any new exclusive game for PS4 and everyone has their take on timing of PS5. BTW, two [rare] respectable Era insiders [Matt and Benji] have both said that PS5 was initially planned for 2019 but that it will most likely get delayed not because of any technological reasons [HW is achiveable in 2019], but because of software/business timings.
Link?
Interesting. Seems to me like we shouldn't assume RTX represents the RT architecture next-gen consoles could use. For all we know NVIDIA could be working internally on something much more advanced that could be ready by the next console cycle.
Do they have a track record? It sounds like they are sales analysts, not developer insiders with access to sony's plans.So they just announced there will be no PSX this year. ResetEra is in full on prohecy mode.
BTW, two [rare] respectable Era insiders [Matt and Benji] have both said that PS5 was initially planned for 2019 but that it will most likely get delayed not because of any technological reasons [HW is achiveable in 2019], but because of software/business timings.
If it comes out in 2019 "oh they decided to launch on time after all" and if it's 2020 "ha I was right they delayed it"
Matt is an [unknown] developer, Benji is in US sales.
Here's the latest one https://www.resetera.com/posts/13213763/
And yes, both are long time and reliable insiders. They usually just post briefly to dispel crazy posts.
Here's the latest one https://www.resetera.com/posts/13213763/
And yes, both are long time and reliable insiders. They usually just post briefly to dispel crazy posts.
It's guaranteed with MS. Questionable for Sony.
phoenix_chipset
Regular
Sony will get absolutely slaughtered in the press if they don't have bc. Then again i've been seeing moments of arrogant sony as of late...
IDK but their bc (cpu gpu timings and such) patents give me hope they won't screw this up.
IDK but their bc (cpu gpu timings and such) patents give me hope they won't screw this up.
Garrett Weaving
Newcomer
Richard from Digital Foundry has been saying for close to a year now that PS5 is coming sometime in Q4 2019 and I think he may be onto something. The delay is possible though, so it remains to be seen what happens next.
Until someone is willing to put their credibility on the line and mention a code name, which can't be guessed, or some specs or un-guessable details, I'm not holding my breath. I'd have thought we'd get a PS5 codename by now seeing as the Scarlett name and details leaked months ago.
Skaal
Newcomer
all depends on what Microsoft is doing - if Sony gets strong hints that Microsoft new Console hits Holidays 2019 they have a good reason to think again about their "business timings" no matter what reasons initialy put PS5 to Spring 2020 .Because they know Microsoft needs to bring it this time and Sony cannot afford to let them have a 6 Months lead in sales.
I read the whole Thread on Resetera and i honestly cannot understand the argument of ,, PS5 will not be 2019 because of no Games" - sure maybe the first real Exclusives will hit 2020 then but since the PS5 will collect all PS4 userbase by BC it will function like PS4 Pro did. It will play the PS4 \Pro Games improved to a ~10-15Tf Level of Graphics.
The only exception will be that there will be indeed PS5 Exclusives. PS4 Era will fade out in 2020 with most games compatible to both Generations.
I can live in a timeline of a 10Tf augmented Ghost of Tshusima, RDR2, TLOU2 and Dreams. So Team 2019 it is for me.
D
Deleted member 13524
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The Xenos GPU IIRC is ATi's R500, a Vec4+Scalar architecture that had been rumor hyped for several years before the X360 but never saw the day of light on discrete GPUs, mostly because of the exquisite 10MB eDRAM setup in a dual-chip configuration. ATi ended up going with the R520/580 architecture with separate pixel+vertex shaders on PC solutions during that generation, and they later introduced their first unified shader on the PC but with a very different VLIW5 "Terascale" architecture.
ATi only evolved that architecture for their first ultra low power 3D GPUs, for Qualcomm to eventually use in the MSM7227 as Z460 (also called mini-Xenos?), the first SoC with an OpenGL ES 2.0 GPU for Android.
Then Qualcomm eventually bought ATi's ultra-mobile GPU division and it grew up to be the Adreno division.
Skaal
Newcomer
This is no real Proof - Scarlet is also just a rumor. Could be false just like all the PS5 Dev Kit rumors could.
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