What I expect is that there won't be ANY bottleneck.
I think Full install can remain up to the player's preference (wait now versus wait later, waste or save space). The reason I say there's no bottleneck is because the HDD will still be there for devs to rely on, partial installs are still available for performance critical stuff (just like the PS3, but better planned, and possibly used as a form of caching instead), so there's no justification for forcing full installs on the console level. Personally I would still full-install the frequently played games, and minimal-install the ones I finished or don't play often to save space. There's no way a 500GB will be enough for me.
The advantages of the HDD are less this time around. On the PS3, the BR drive was about 8 times slower than the HDD, and the seek time was horrible, some games needed very big partial installs. This time the 6x BR averages 3 times slower. Because it's CAV, the seek will be much much better and the drive's maximum RPM should be only 1.6 times faster than the PS3 drive. It will not be noisy, nor unreliable.
If it really is CAV (which it seems all 6x BluRay drives are) that means it'll only be 6x faster on the outer track. On the inner track it'll be much closer to the old BRD drives (assuming they were CLV which I have no clue if they were or not).
Likewise seek times will be much faster on the outer track, but only minorly faster on the inner tracks. Seek times are also going to be massively worse than HDD.
http://www.cdrlabs.com/Reviews/sony...-blu-ray-disc-writer/Performance-BD-Read.html
Is a review of a Sony 6x Drive. At the inner track transfer speed is only 2x. you only get 6x at the very outermost track. Average is ~4.5x. Random seek is 94 ms, a seek over 1/3 of the drive is 193 ms, and a full seek of the disk is 290 ms.
That one has problems with full disk seeks, but has a fast random seek. Sony could instead use a new drive based on...
http://www.cdrlabs.com/Reviews/sony...-blu-ray-disc-writer/Performance-BD-Read.html
Transfer speeds don't change, but random seeks jump to 119 MS. 1/3 and full disk seeks however are much better at 5 ms and 4 ms.
So optimal (linear/sequential read speed) will vary from ~11.2 MB/s to ~27 MB/s with an average around 20.2 MB/s. Performance would be catastrophically bad on the inner tracks and just plain horrible on the outer tracks. Random read once you factor in the 95-120 ms seek times is going to just be overall catastrophic if you want to have improved game IQ over last gen.
Compare all that to a decent 5400 RPM 500 GB 2.5" HDD.
http://www.legitreviews.com/article/937/2/
Sequential reads go from ~42 MB/s to ~85 MB/s with an average of ~67.5 MB/s. Random seeks are ~16.5 ms.
So if you look at just pure sequential reads then yes, ~3-4x faster for a HDD is about right. Once you factor in random reads which are going to dominate game data transfers during gameplay that 16.5 ms random seek versus 95-120 ms random seek (up to ~7.27x slower) for a 6x BRD is going to open up to a much larger gap.
If Sony doesn't go for mandatory HDD installs, then Durango is going to have a massively large advantage when it comes to loading game assets which will translate into better looking graphics if the game relies on streaming data but will only result in faster level loads if it doesn't.
Think of it another way. We've had this level of graphics and associated graphics data for quite a long time on PCs. There's a reason that nothing is ever streamed off an optical drive. And even on a 7200 RPM 3.5" HDD, levels can take a while to load and textures can take a while to pop in with games that stream data. But even that was already faster than the current gen consoles which had much MUCH smaller graphics data sets to load. With the next generation of console games you are talking about PC levels of game assets.
Instead of potentially loading up 256-300 MB for a level with some streaming, we're talking about potentially loading up 2-4 GB of data possibly with some streaming. This isn't a measly 3x increase in data. We're taking about potentially 10-20x the data.
That's why you've seen Arwin and I sit here and wish that consoles would at the very least have 7200 RPM 3.5" drives. But the reality is that they will likely have 5400 RPM 2.5" drives due to cost and heat.
Regards,
SB