16 million would be well over what they would hope to sell in 2013 calendar year. Dunno where digitimes pulled that info from.
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16 million would be well over what they would hope to sell in 2013 calendar year. Dunno where digitimes pulled that info from.
Bagel seed
Veteran
It's worded strangely but I think they mean 16 million in the first year after launch. Unless somehow they're manufacturing it already at a rate of 2-3 mil per month.
Bagel seed
Veteran
It hit 16 mil somewhere in 2008. FWIW both 360 and PS3 sold about 10 mil in their first year after launch.
http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php?reg=Global&ending=Yearly
One need only look at the graph at the PS3 or Xbox 360 to see how idiotic this rumor is. It took the Xbox 360 and PS3 both 2 years to reach that level of install base.
But the PS3 was insanely expensive. They could be projecting to have better numbers releasing at a lower price.
It's more than the ps2 sold in its first year (full year in all markets even) as well. The number is unrealistic unless Sony introduces at $199. Digitimes isn't exactly noted for accuracy.
As usual the number of consoles shipped will be determined by the demand.
No way Sony will ship 16 million PS4 if the demand is lower.
I frankly doubt PS4 pre-orders will be over 10 million.
Oh and just to be clear I don't say this for hate.
I just think it's not very realistic considered the economic crisis and if the price will be around $400 as rumors suggested.
No way Sony will ship 16 million PS4 if the demand is lower.
I frankly doubt PS4 pre-orders will be over 10 million.
Oh and just to be clear I don't say this for hate.
I just think it's not very realistic considered the economic crisis and if the price will be around $400 as rumors suggested.
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DuckThor Evil
Legend
There is no such scenario where 16M during 2013 can happen.
Digitimes is not trustworthy. Do not source from them.
Apple sells about that many iPads per quarter, at comparable ASPs.
And of course tens of millions of high end phones are sold each quarter, if not each month.
Of course gaming devices have never demonstrated this kind of demand or sales volume, even before mobile devices came along.
And of course tens of millions of high end phones are sold each quarter, if not each month.
Of course gaming devices have never demonstrated this kind of demand or sales volume, even before mobile devices came along.
I wouldn't expect them to make 16M units for Holiday launch. They'd be planning to ship 16M during its first year, more likely. And yes, digitimes ...
Not saying I agree with the rumour, but sales rate is governed by price and desirability. The right product at the right price could sell that many - the obvious example is iPad selling that many a quarter. If PS4 was $100, I'd expect it to sell plenty over Christmas (and bankrupt Sony in the process!). I can well imagine both Sony and MS gunning for a faster adoption than previous consoles. They need a strong userbase for devs, and if they can, a quick displacement of their rival. 3 million over Christmas just isn't as 'wow' as it once was. Orbis is certainly looking far cheaper than PS3 (although dunno how the RAM is going to affect that), meaning a lower entry price and faster adoption.
Bagel seed
Veteran
For sure. Also, both 360 and PS3 were heavily supply constrained during at least the first few months, with the 360 more so. Both sold around 1-2 mil in the first 2 months and that number should see big improvement without constraints.
PS3's sales nose-dived (certainly in NPD) after early adopters. At months 3-9, IIRC, sales were pitiful. It was just too expensive. When the first price cut hit, sales picked up notably. Had PS3 launched at the $100 cheaper price, it'd have achieved significantly faster growth in year 1.
I don't think that "a quick displacement of their rival" is a possible scenario in this case, not with the global economy in this state.
PS4 is a strong machine (given the specs we have) and will probably be cheaper than PS3 but will this be enough?
Sony can help the "migration" of the PS3 userbase to PS4 if it plays its cards wisely and if it can offer a strong software library since the start it could indeed convince many to choose PS4 but even then I am not sure it will create the required userbase to "quickly displace of the rival".
I expect a lot of people to "wait and see" before making the jump to the next gen.
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