new (?) Rambus XDR memory and PlayStation 3 information

Well if you really really really want to be picky, the trojan horse will be the *packaging* your PS3 comes in, and the *thing* will be the PS3 (blu-ray is merely a component of PS3)!

 

All this talk of putting Trojans on things is getting a bit unseemly.

 

I think the S/N ratio of this thread permanently went below minimum threshold around page six or so when Jvd went into rampant speculation mode.

I found his cost analysis somewhere on page 7 particulary humorous, there was this PDF I had in my possession once that was a very professional dissection of the PS2 when it was new. As we remember, the first incarnation had literally enormous main chips in it, it used DVD, RDRAM, heatpipe-equipped diecast pin/fin heatsink, none of which were particulary cheap at the time. Of course I can't find the PDF again after some casual googling, but I distinctly remember the cost of the individual components being nowhere near what Jvd speculates for PS3.

I wouldn't think the first incarnation of PS3 H/W really costing much more than what PS2 did initially. After all, over half a decade will have passed since, just look at PC hardware what X amount of money bought you in 2000 and what you'll get in 06...

 

Translating Vince`s last post into normal English:

His point is people own more than one console. Just because MS sells more doesn`t necessarily mean Sony sells less, it might mean that those who already own a Sony console decide to buy a MS console as well.

However, this is *not quite* correct, IMHO. People who own two consoles have to split their gaming dollars, so each console has less games, driving down the software attachment rate.

Of course, if the games industry in general expands quickly enough to compensate for the inevitable loss of market share (do you realistically expect Sony to be 80-90% of the market, forever?), Sony will not lose gaming revenue. In other words, Sony`s share of the pie may be shrinking, but the pie is growing.

(Vince, whats with this set/subset stuff?! I know you like mathematical formalism, but this too much ... )

 

This is true when talking about gaming, not true when talking about the use of PlayStation3 as a carrier for BD-ROM.

If anything, it's the basis for a very sound argument on why Microsoft is going to get their asses handed to them next generation. If you agree with the overlap (subsets.. *pinky to mouth*) you can deduce that the parts which don't overlap is due to that which is different (duh!) which happened to be the XBox's preformance to a large degree. You can think as you like, but IMHO it's a forgone conclusion at this point Microsoft is going to be surpassed.

I no longer see the rational for that XBox only segment to exist, and I doubt XNA is the answer. PC -> PS3 porting is imminent because that's where the dead presidents are and, more importantly, the security/stability for the publisher lie. This is Sony's fatality to lose.

My bad... my bad. Haven't been out in while....

 

Ok, if you`re talking about BD acceptance, I agree. My bad for taking it out of context.

Haven`t posted on this board in a while ... of course, I don`t have much to say, now that I`ve been NDA`ed to silence by Toshiba ...

 

Which is why you need to get your information from corperate cultures more like... say... IBM. I have wondered where you've been though, sucks not to have your opinion for a bit.

 

Most people thought the same regarding ATi vs. Nvidia two years ago and BAM came R300 totally out of the left field while NV30 was a hobbling cripple in comparison.

Foregone conclusions have a way of turning out to be completely wrong sometimes in this business (well, like with most businesses, I guess), especially when based on NOTHING but speculation and past performance. Things change. Sometimes by a lot.

Now, I hope PS3 turns out to be a beast that Saddam would have loved to import and use as brains for cruise missiles ( ), but I also hope I won't be too disappointed if it turns out to be somewhat more pedestrian. I won't even begin to speculate who will win a war between MS and Sony though, especially not with MS a potential year+ of availability in NA and Europe over Sony. That's just too many factors to consider.

Now, the sheer number of units Sony will have by the time nextbox releases means software publishers ignore PS2 at their peril, but the allure of next-gen hardware will be there and get stronger as time goes by. A year is a long time. I think we'll quickly see a shift from PS2 to nextbox where "big gun" titles will go, at least from western devs. PS2 will continue to get middleware titles and/or sequels to popular franchaises (GTA: drugsmurderdeath&mayhem XXVIII), but new engine development will fall by the wayside immediately once titles already in development are finished up. After all, PS2 is hard to program (if you suck), money can be better spent elsewhere.

PS2's last year will probably be rather bland seen as a whole, with focus shifted to the horizon of newer, better things. It will be seen as sort of quaint rather than the cool kid on the block that it is now, and rightfully so. At least in the west. And you don't want to hear the quacking of people like Chap and the like on various message boards either in the time after nextbox's unveiling until PS3 is released...

 

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My thoughts exactly.

 

You know that always puzzled me because I sure didn't think the R300 came out of left field, and hell hehe good part of the reason I invested stock in ATI a good few months before the R300 actually came out and held on to them for about a year. (then again also did similarly with Nvidia buying them around same time but selling them sooner once stocks had doubled, which I thought was funny because by that time NV30 had been shown to be worse than the R300). The NV30 was a little more depressing than expected but there were rumors in advance of its paper launch to the same degree.

On the XBox, if MS can get some good RPG's I think that could really help them out. Some additional quick action games would also be useful. To me, assuming the XBox2 launches well in the US & Europe then its likely MS can tear a good portion of Sony's profits out. Now if Sony can convince people to wait like they did when the Dreamcast was released then MS could have some serious issues when they don't have much of a lead and happen to have hardware behind Sony. (I'm not factoring Nintendo in to the picture because the majority of us who get Nintendo consoles will likely still get them and Nintendo will still be profitable as usual due to us).

 

That or we're going to see a scenario à la Dreamcast where only a few third parties games will really be designed for the new platform, and a lot of games will be souped up ports of PS2/Xbox games.

But realistically, since MS can gather more 3rd party support than Sega (Money ain't a problem 'round Redmond), i think we'll see something between the two scenario.
Will it be enough for MS for outperforming Sony definitely (this gen, and in the "west")? Well, time will tell, personaly, i think it won't be enough.