MS stuck in the middle?

[EndR]

Okey, Some thoughts after GDC.

Is it just me or does MS seem to be kinda stuck in the middle between Sony and Nintendo? That both Sony and NIntendo are kind of squeezing MS from both sides?

For example..
*Sony are doing a good job of taking away MS "aces". Sonys online seems to offer the same functions as XBoxLive but free.

*Sony will have a HDD in every machine.

So by looking at this, Sony will offer stuff that MS "dosen´t". By having a HDD in every machine, devs can count on it. On 360, devs cannot.
Sonys machine seems to be able of pushing more advanced physics but the overall power of PS3 will not be that much greater than Xbox360 (based on devs comments)

Nintendo on the other hand..
THey will also offer free onlineplay with Rev (why would it change from their NDS strategy). But the main reason Rev is gathering attention is for the Rev-mote. Nintendo might be able to offer something new with this. Rev, as I see it, is in the best position of the 3 of becoming the best "Second console" after PS3 or 360.

WHat MS must count on now is to have the best exclusives around. If MS cannot secure AAA exclusives, then PS3 will definatly sell better than 360 and Rev might be up there aswell.

So, what I think MS must do to are the following:
1. Lower the price on both Premium and Core as soon as possible.
-Why would some have to do that, they are the only next gen on the market, no need to lower the price, right? I think that MS should lower the price on both SO THAT they can amass the best salesfigures possible before PS3 arrives. The whole purpose of being first on market was to have the biggest lead possible to the competition. In the US, sales are healthy but in EU (and in Japan), there are machines available and sales are not as good as in the states. By lowering the price now and have a marketing push, they could boost their sales.

MS should try to focus on selling as much as possible before PS3 lands. IIRC, Sony will try and produce 6 million by November. This might mean 2 million on each market at launch. We saw with PS2 that Sony didn´t have any problem of selling 1 million in 2 days. Now the hype is even bigger. 6 million should be sold in a week, easily. (If Sony is able to produce the 6 million units). It dosen´t matter, Sony will be able to sell lots of machine really fast and thus narrowing the gap to MS and 360. So MS must concentrate on selling as many as possible as soon as possible. $299 for premium and $199 for core.

2. Upgrade both SKUs.
-I don´t get MS. The thing with each generation is that you ADD more hardware from existing, not removing. The removal of the HDD was a mistake, devs could do more with the HDD. Sony is having one in every machine now and this combined with Blu-ray and the extra power, could help Sony secure more exclusive content. Besides, Sony will have a 60GB HDD in their machine, MS cannot be worse with only 20GB.

So, I think that MS must upgrade the Premium SKU with a 60GB HDD and the Core with a 20GB HDD. AT the same time, MS should release 80GBs (or 100, 120 GB HDDs) as add ons. This way, MS still gives people choice but every machine haves a HDD. THose who bought a core-pack now, must be compensated with a HDD. MS did a compensation program with Xbox here in EU, so MS have a history of compensating, so this shouldn´t be a problem. BUT it is important for MS to also have a HDD in every machine, this way, Sony will not have as many exclusive features on their machine and this way, thirdparty devs can count on a HDD on both PS3 and 360. (This would mean that a premium SKU with 60GB HDD would cost 299 dollars, taking my first point into account)

MS have said, even Scott Henson said (the recently interviewed guy on Kotaku) that MS have their strategy and that it dosen´t matter what the competitors do. Well, a real strategist would react to what the competitors are doing and move accordingly. MS needs to react to what the competition are doing and respond.

The thing that maybe bothers me the most is that Sony are willing to invest and take a huge loss on their machine but by doing this, they will have some sweet tech and Sony are broke compaired to MS.

MS, has a ton of money, but don´t invest as much as the poorer competitor does. MS needs to move some of their 40+ billion dollars towards 360, make some interesting buy-ups, secure games, price reductions etc etc.

MS needs to be more aggressive and more aggressive soon.

(sorry for misspellings, grammatical errors etc)

 

[pc999]

I kind agree, today only great exclusives a very low prices (relative) can make up for the "the all that the other offer but better or free" (PS3) and "the cheaper/free, very innovative, potentially lots of exclussives etc... "(Rev).

I mean they do not offer nothing unique, and they arent the best (by far now, IMO) in what they offer.

They are in a very bad position IMO, still tiking in Halo3 and others exclussives makes them the life easier, but not enought ...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

MS have to do like everyone else, and copy everyone else's ideas. We've seen that somewhat with the XB360 camera. Sony copy Live! features. MS copies peripherals. Nintendo make something new for them both to copy later. And we end up with generic machines all round...

I don't think there's anything really technically whizz-pop MS can do to be different. Like automobiles. They're much the same when you get down to it. The only major differences between similar vehicles are price, style, features (which are normally pretty similar) and build quality, the latter of which probably doesn't contribute as much to sales as to peeved customers who bought a turkey. XB360 looks different, is priced different, and has different game franchises. I personally think that at the end of the day, assuming XB360 and PS3 realworld performance are very similar, it'll all come down to marketting. 2 similar products, 2 different prices, the differentiator is whether the public wants you or not.

 

[superguy]

WHat MS must count on now is to have the best exclusives around. If MS cannot secure AAA exclusives, then PS3 will definatly sell better than 360 and Rev might be up there aswell.

I dont think they secured a lot of "AAA exlusives" last time..yet they did OK. Also each of the competitors has it's problems. Revolution has to battle the stigma of being weak. This is a far bigger burden than MS has to bear IMO.

PS3..we must wait to see where it falls in power. People care about graphics not Blu-Ray or HDD.

But say it is a bit more powerful, even then, they will have extreme costs issues, especially if they do indeed include a HDD standard, as well as a year head start by MS, to overcome.

The core pack is already 299..by the time PS3 comes out for perhaps 499 or even 599, it could be 249..if the games look just as good, or even 90% as good, that's a powerful proposition.

 

[Metal]

They got out first, and they will have the most games this holiday. There will also be a ton of 360's on shelves. From what I've seen, the PS3 actual games don't look that much different from 360 actual games.

 

[superguy]

MS should try to focus on selling as much as possible before PS3 lands. IIRC, Sony will try and produce 6 million by November. This might mean 2 million on each market at launch. We saw with PS2 that Sony didn´t have any problem of selling 1 million in 2 days. Now the hype is even bigger. 6 million should be sold in a week, easily. (If Sony is able to produce the 6 million units). It dosen´t matter, Sony will be able to sell lots of machine really fast and thus narrowing the gap to MS and 360. So MS must concentrate on selling as many as possible as soon as possible. $299 for premium and $199 for core

I would be very skeptical on that.

Sony only had 500,000 PS2's at launch in NA..manufactoring is getting harder not easier..why would they have MORE PS3's? It could happen but I dont deem it likely.

Another source Gamestop, predicted 750K PS3's in 2006.

Also Nvidia cannot keep 7900GTX in stock currently..this makes me wonder about PS3 with far higher volumes.

I agree with your point MS should have used more of it's forty billion..but to include more RAM, a 256 bus, better graphics chip, things gamers care about, definitly NOT a Hard Drive.

The way MS has it set up now is good anyway. Basically the HD is for live and if you want one, you'll buy it. So they're not denying it too you.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Actually I think it's SOny who are positioning themselves to lose marketshare and 360 that is doing an excellent job of positioning itself for some big gains.

Sony has decided to make an expensive console, which will slow adoption among mainstream consumers, as it delays the $199 pricepoint, they've also given up a large install base lead to the 360 meaning they'll lose their grip on alot of the 3rd party support, and they have a poor development environment further decreasing the desireability of developing for PS.

360 on the other hand, has focused on making the console cheap, they have focused on an excellent dev environment, and large game library, building a large installed base early on will make them market leader for at least 2 years probably this fact will lead to much improved 3rd party support(it had already).

I think Sony is going down the wrong path. They don't need to be technologically superior and suffer all the downsides of being so, (higher cost for consumer, lower sell through, launch a year behind your competion.) Their customers have proven that they do not care about which console is technically 'superior', 100million PS2 attest to that. All they need to do is release the console, and let their brandname build their install base as quickly as possible and keep the status quo: PS being the preferred platform for 3rd party developers.

I think Sony risk losing much of their grip on 3rd party exclusives due to the poor dev environment, and fact that 360 is shaping up to be the market leader through 2007. Games are all that matter, not HDD installs, or free online gaming, or any off that stuff, it's all about which console has the best/most games.

And even though PS3 will probably end up being that console again, the gap will be much smaller than before, which can only mean increased marketshare over XBOX1.

It's a big risk just to push a proprietary disc technology...as a consumer I'm certainly not going to complain.

 

[Griffith]

all depends on the price of ps3

case a (worse):
PS3 with hd 650$ with no games
Premium 360 + Halo3 399

Premium 349$

Core 249$
Revolution 200$


case b (better)
PS3 with hd 550$ with no games
Premium 360 + Halo3 349

Premium 299$

Core 199$
Revolution 179$


I see this as very possible scenarios
the ps3 will front an incredibly aggressive price dropping + halo3 by microsoft, this can hurts a LOT sony, who really will pay 650$, for example case a but this is the same for case b, for a ps3, when they can pay near half and get a very similar powerful console with halo3?

I think that this will be extremely aggressive, and safe, for MS, just because they will improve production of the hardware (the two core gpu will become one at 65nm, they sayed, etc) and thank to this the price drop will not cause other loss

 

[pc999]

It seems that PS3 will not be behind in terms of games (at very least in numbers).

And I really doubt they will price PS3 at more than 400$ and if XB360 is less than 250$ at Q4 06 it would suprise me, althought that or less should be the best strategy (IMO) as it would also put a good pressure in Rev.

 

[scooby_dooby]

It seems that PS3 will not be behind in terms of games (at very least in numbers).

It doesn't need to be behind for it to be a good thign for MS. Even if the ratio of games available for PS3/x360 goes from 4:1 to 2:1 that's already a huge improvement over xbox.

 

[speng]

I think MS is fine where they are and only need this change.

Create a new SKU with the Core bundle including a 20 GB HDD. Keep the price the same, more features for the same price.

They have a good march lineup of software GRAW, Oblivion and they are going to produce 2-3 times more hardware now. These are system seller games. If MS had received a 4 month exclusive on Oblivion before it hit the PC it would have sold even more hardware.

More strategy and exclusives will help drive more sales of the hardware, as other suggest.

I don't think MS is in a tight spot. They can react after PS3 gives their pricing.

Speng.

 

[Inane_Dork]

Being stuck in the middle can be an advantageous position, too. They might have the power of the PS3 with the pricing of the Rev. It depends on how you look at it.

 

[heliosphere]

*Sony are doing a good job of taking away MS "aces". Sonys online seems to offer the same functions as XBoxLive but free.

Sony are doing a good job of promising to take away MS's 'aces' but Sony have a long history of over-promising and under-delivering so we'll just have to wait and see how their online offering stacks up next to Live. MS have been developing Live for years and it's a solid implementation backed by a company with huge experience in running large online services. Sony aren't even going to be delivering their online SDKs to devs until June / July according to their announcements and they don't have as much experience in the area. SOE are not exactly novices in the field but they've still got a lot of work to do to deliver something that competes with Live.

*Sony will have a HDD in every machine.

The endless debate on this and Sony's refusal to give a straight answer means this is still somewhat uncertain.

Another thing worth mentioning is that MS's developer tools and developer support are leaps and bounds ahead of Sony's and despite lots of talk from Sony the gap only looks like it's getting bigger with the XNA announcements at GDC. The word from devs when they're not being quoted for a Sony press release is that the PS3 is not an easy system to work with.

I think it was established that careful reading of Sony's statements suggests they are promising 6 million consoles in FY06 - that's 6 million by March 2007, not for launch. I don't think it's likely that they'll be able to meet demand with a worldwide launch in November. MS should hold off on a price reduction until then. An early price reduction just risks pissing off consumers who've already bought a 360 - MS made that mistake with the UK launch of the original Xbox (though they made up for it by giving out free games). A price reduction in time for the 2006 holiday season makes a lot of sense.

The 360 should have a good selection of quality games available come PS3 launch and given the extra time devs have had with the hardware and the superior development tools I expect most big 360 holiday titles will look better than most of the PS3 launch titles. Put that together with a high price for the PS3, a price reduction on the 360 and the inevitable PS3 shortages and I'd say MS are looking pretty strong for this Christmas.

 

[nintenho]

Most people (at least I do) see the 360 and the PS3 as competitors for the same purpose. I believe that the average consumer isn't going to be too stupid not to wait and see how well PS3's free online and hard drive work out.

 

[expletive]

Once we know the price of the PS3 i think it will be much easier ot make an argument one way or the other here. Price is probably the most important factor for most consumers. The tech will get lost in the shuffle as it did last gen, but MS' and Nintendo's ability (or lack thereof) to have a cost advantage wont be.

 

[Natoma]

all depends on the price of ps3

case a (worse):
PS3 with hd 650$ with no games
Premium 360 + Halo3 399

Premium 349$

Core 249$
Revolution 200$


case b (better)
PS3 with hd 550$ with no games
Premium 360 + Halo3 349

Premium 299$

Core 199$
Revolution 179$


I see this as very possible scenarios
the ps3 will front an incredibly aggressive price dropping + halo3 by microsoft, this can hurts a LOT sony, who really will pay 650$, for example case a but this is the same for case b, for a ps3, when they can pay near half and get a very similar powerful console with halo3?

I think that this will be extremely aggressive, and safe, for MS, just because they will improve production of the hardware (the two core gpu will become one at 65nm, they sayed, etc) and thank to this the price drop will not cause other loss

Where exactly do you get the basis for the pricing structure for the Revolution and the PS3? Has any news come out to support these claims?

 

[DigitalSoul]

Where exactly do you get the basis for the pricing structure for the Revolution and the PS3? Has any news come out to support these claims?

Sony has yet to announce a price( same is Nintendo). The prevision from most people is that PS3 is going to be ridiculously expensive. Personally, I don't think its going cost that much more than Xbox360 premium.....hell it might just cost the same, but thats my conjecture. I'll just wait for Sony's official price instead of just tossing out numbers.

 

[Mordecaii]

Hold on, it's time for my super-professional attempt at guessing prices from out of nowhere...

Xbox 360 will INCREASE in price to $450
PS3 will release at $300
Revolution will actually pay you to take it home

Ok, obviously these are not serious attempts at guessing, but they are just as valid (perhaps not the Revolution one, but I digress) as the above guesses of a $600 PS3.

The point is, everyone has an opinion and most of them frankly aren't worth the forum space they take up... Especially with random guesses with no solid info behind them.

 

[Lysander]

I just want to say again, MS must make those 20gigs HD mandatory and start to sell only premium. They also must start selling (optional) 50 and 100 gigs HD. And then there is HD-DVD behind the E3 corner and I hope that their speed will be done with software in mind

 

[expletive]

Sony has yet to announce a price( same is Nintendo). The prevision from most people is that PS3 is going to be ridiculously expensive. Personally, I don't think its going cost that much more than Xbox360 premium.....hell it might just cost the same, but thats my conjecture. I'll just wait for Sony's official price instead of just tossing out numbers.

I believe that KK said at least 425 for the PS3 at the business briefing a few weeks ago. "At least", to me anyway, means without a hard drive and probably also means $449. Sony would probably charge between 75 to 125 for a 60G HD as an add-on. So youre looking at between $525 and $575 as a reasonable guess.

So, to reiterate, the cheapest it will be is $425.00 with no HD.