MS not to reach 3 million in 90 days Target
- Thread starter Shifty Geezer
- Start date
scooby_dooby
Legend
xbdestroya said:Well, released where though?
Because we all know the PS3 is going to 'launch' sooner than October.
(I am serious, though I jest)
I would say until they launch at least in 2 of the 3 main regions, unless they can sell multi-millions in japan and signifigantly close the gap there, but thy probably won't kick into high gear until end of 06 or early 2007, so MS wants to have a large install base at that point, and I would guess they are counting heavily on the June-Oct timeframe where they will be sellin in 30+ countries with sustained supply.
I think they'll need a few big games though to keep things moving. A summer release of Gears of War could be a huge boost for 360 sales.
I wonder if PS3 will suffer similar problems since they are also using IBM for their CPU fabs initially, and that has been the main bottleneck for the 360.
Last edited by a moderator:
scooby_dooby said:
Well, Cell's been in production for longer than the XeCPU - even if only on a limited basis. Not to mention that they have multiple non-IBM fabs in on it as well. So I'd be surprised if Cell yields ended up as a bottleneck. I'm expecting it to be RSX, just like it was GS in the PS2. Or maybe it'll be blu-ray drives that's the bottleneck, ya never know.
No I don't think Japan sales will close the entire gap at all (though I expect a couple million there by years end), I'm just saying that once PS3 launches, might as well start tracking the consoles against each other sales-wise rather than wait for NA or Europe. Regional levels of sales though will of course be crucial in determining trends, so I mean I see where you're coming from when you imply N America and the Fall.
Alpha_Spartan
Regular
Japan isn't "everywhere". Learn to read before you think of the smart-ass reply.drpepper said:They are in Japan...
I can't go in a store in NA find an Xbox 360. I'm not sure about Europe, but they're probably in the same boat.
ihamoitc2005
Veteran
Core system
I think core system sales is not so great. Every one likes premium version. My friend bought core system to sell on ebay for ~$350 and no one made bids! I think they should make only premium because this has nice accessories for only $100! This is great value! Core system is a bad value.
Shifty Geezer said:
I think core system sales is not so great. Every one likes premium version. My friend bought core system to sell on ebay for ~$350 and no one made bids! I think they should make only premium because this has nice accessories for only $100! This is great value! Core system is a bad value.
scooby_dooby
Legend
drpepper said:
Face it? Not one person has stated otherwise. Point is it's largely irrelevant because on a global scale the thing is sold out, and the japanese marketplace itself is relatively small.
ihamoitc2005 said:
The core system is a waste of precious resources. Why they even bothered with 2 SKUs is beyond me, other than milking the accesories market. However I think they still sold well as people seem desperate enough to get a 360, even if it means getting ripped off. I was considering one, but since you have to buy a HDD just to open up some of the features i was completely turned off.
Last edited by a moderator:
The core system is a brilliant idea that will become apparent when the console has its first price drops and earns a more mainstream price tag.drpepper said:
Right now,the people who are buying the xbox360 are the hardcore who are willing to pay 399$ for the console and the 299$ price tag of the core system doesn't seem so tempting for the cheaper gamers.When the core system's price falls at 199 or even 149$ when it will be competting woh the revolution for the "cheap gamer's" money then you'll see why it's a great idea.MS will have a product both for the high-end market(xbox360 premium,maybe even with a HD-DVD drive at some point) and the "low end/mainstream" market (core system) THAT WILL BOTH PLAY THE SAME GAMES.
scooby_dooby
Legend
The core's a good idea, however the core at launch is just plain stupid.
It only makes an already terrible supply situation even worse, as 1/3 of your already tiny shipments are consoles people don't want, although they may sell, it only creates resentment.
No early adopter is gonna care about saving $60, and the supply issues were so bad they should've just shipped 100% premiums until well into this year.
It only makes an already terrible supply situation even worse, as 1/3 of your already tiny shipments are consoles people don't want, although they may sell, it only creates resentment.
No early adopter is gonna care about saving $60, and the supply issues were so bad they should've just shipped 100% premiums until well into this year.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Compared to all of Europe and North America it is small, especially when you consider interest for 360 is very low in that region, it's almost irrelevant to any discussion about worldwide sales.
In other words, Japan was never going to have a large impact on the 360's installed base for 2006, so why is it relevant to this discussion if they are not sold out in Japan?
In other words, Japan was never going to have a large impact on the 360's installed base for 2006, so why is it relevant to this discussion if they are not sold out in Japan?
It's not a small market but it has become really tireome watching people bring out the "Japan card" when talking about microsoft's consoles.The mega drive was a big failure in Japan and yet it was the only succesfull sega console.The saturn was a success in Japan(a much stronger n.2 at that time than the GC is there right now) and yet it was a catastrphy for Sega.Hell,even the original xbox was a big failure in Japan and yet managed decent worldwide numbers.Edge said:
It is also very positve for MS the fact that just about every Japanese developer and franchise has actually dimished in popularity in the western markets.You name it,from heavyweights like metal gear solid and resident evil to medium franchises like Tekken and soul caliber and ridge racer.I'd even go as far as to say that even uber-blockbuster japanese franchises like the nintendo franchises or Gran tourismo have actually lost some of their importance as evident by the sales of their latest sequels.
Honestly where the next GTA goes is much more important that just about all 3rd party Japanese games combined.
The numbers don't lie and one look at any recent U.S/U.K(or other European) says it all.Yes the Japanese market is important(the n.3 market in the world,how can it not be important??) but its importance is diminishing.
So they won't reach their 90 day target...
But the only revised their June target down 500k (4.5M > 4M)? And the upper-limit is still the same (5.5M)....
I wonder if they are really confident of 4M by June, because it would seem wierd not to meet your 90 day target but still reach your 7 month target. Unless they were expecting their 3rd-plant online sooner.
We heard that Xbox360s were being manufactured in August. Thats 6-months work by February and still not 3M. Will they get another 1.5-3M out by June? Possibly 1.5M but I doubt anywhere near 3M.
I don't think this is all that gloomy for Xbox360 until we know PS3/Rev launch date and price though. The box's won't be flying off the shelves by then but they'll still be steadily selling.
But the only revised their June target down 500k (4.5M > 4M)? And the upper-limit is still the same (5.5M)....
I wonder if they are really confident of 4M by June, because it would seem wierd not to meet your 90 day target but still reach your 7 month target. Unless they were expecting their 3rd-plant online sooner.
We heard that Xbox360s were being manufactured in August. Thats 6-months work by February and still not 3M. Will they get another 1.5-3M out by June? Possibly 1.5M but I doubt anywhere near 3M.
I don't think this is all that gloomy for Xbox360 until we know PS3/Rev launch date and price though. The box's won't be flying off the shelves by then but they'll still be steadily selling.
Ty said:
Yeah how many Euro developers did MS seed compared to those in Japan?
Or how many Europe-specific releases are they working on compared to Japan-specific releases?
Historically, I heard Japan had higher software attach rates. They bought more games per console than other continents.
Guden Oden said:If you're going to do something, aim high. (Unless you're Nintendo.
Anyway, these sales target topics are boring and pointless. It's not anything that should concern us as 3D tech fanboiiis IMO. If anyone find this interesting, why not go to a board centering on financials/marketing or such?
Yeah, but if they're having production difficulties, even a small decrease in power, probably not even 5%, can go a long way to increasing yields. Xbox could have launched with a 250mhz graphics chip, but they went for the almost perfect yields of a 230mhz graphics chip. I've heard it said that the x360 cpu was supposed to be on 65nm and not 90nm....well if 65nm wasn't ready, they could have dropped to say 2.8ghz and it would have been a rather inconsequential decrease in power that could dramatically improve yields. Wasn't their launch like 1/3rd the expected size? Maybe implementing something like speedstep could have helped, I'd imagine quite a few 3.8ghz presscotts would be melting down without that.
Dreamcast was an example of powerful yet conservative hardware design. Gamecube I'd say almost was, but got a bit too crippled prior to launch. It lost like what, 25% of the speed of its graphics chip only a few months prior to launch? It did let them hit a $200 price point though.
If the x360 cpu is the bottleneck, then Sony may escape it. Cell is running at the same speed, but spread out over more cores and may be able to hit 65nm. Even if Cell yields are poor, there are 3 potential suppliers of chips in IBM, Sony, and Toshiba, instead of just IBM for the x360 cpu.
Maybe he just missed the boat now that the hype has died down and the 360s are more available. I don't think value was given much consideration when the systems were selling for over $1000.
Oh, and the Japanese market isn't that small, expect a big upset from Nintendo with their revolution there. IIRC correctly, the Japanese market is still larger than the European market.
Are you sure about that? The best selling Saturn game was Virtua Fighter 2 in Japan, and it didn't break 1 million sales. Gamecube has had several games that sold over 1 million copies in Japan alone. Plus, I think Dreamcast did better than Saturn in every market (slightly), yet Gamecube has done better than Dreamcast in perhaps every market but Europe.
PS3 exclusive isn't it?
